Features
Ukraine: The last warning!
by Kumar David
Ukraine joining NATO or stationing nuclear weapons is intolerable. It is a threat to Russia’s security but much, much more serious it is a stage in the realignment of global power relations by neo-imperialism and finance-capital and a step towards future wars. Otherwise it is not possible to understand why NATO does not give Russia a formal guarantee that Ukraine will never be allowed to join. It’s not that Biden, or NATO or finance-capital want wars; it’s that stuff just happens when conducive circumstances materialise. I have provided a map of how Russia and China are strangled by a multitude of American and NATO military bases.
Having made this crucial concern explicit I add that the invasion that Putin launched on 24 February was premature, unpopular, excessive and the outcome is doubtful. Diplomatic and tactical options had not been exhausted. The 190,000 troops he sent are inadequate for the onerous task of taking and holding Ukraine for any length of time. Frustrated by slow progress and dogged Ukrainian resistance, flummoxed by a tornado of sanctions and illegal acquisition of Russian bank assets, and flustered by a blanket ban on Russian TV and broadcasts throughout the West whose citizens are only aware of half the truth, Western media now alleges that he has unleashed the full force of aerial bombardment and artillery. Yes, this is half the story.
For a long game Putin needed a larger force, deeper pockets, preparation of the Russian people and strong global alliances. He did none of this and is now pretty much isolated. He is said to be a master strategist but this time he has blundered. He promised the world that he would not invade and then did just that and blew his credibility. Russian economic and financial arrangements are being scorched by the West’s economic might. Imperialism’s hope is to bring Russia to heel and eventually forge a grand alliance against the alternative superpower, China. Ukraine and Putin are small change in this grand game of global domination. The West’s objective is to crush a Russia that is not under its control and to this end even a transition of leadership in Russia is possible in the months or year ahead.
It is true that the US, NATO, capitalist Europe and the government in Kiev have for months, if not years brushed aside Russia’s unquestionably justified security concerns. In one of the best analysis I have seen a certain Vladimir Pozner, who I have not heard of before, argues that the West created Putin to be what he is today:
Russia has offered Kiev conditions for stopping the offensive; an undertaking never to join NATO and a promise to never station nuclear weapons in Ukraine; similar to what the Americans did to Cuba in 1962. Kiev should accept the conditions though it will anger America and NATO. In truth, I wonder is it Putin who is being naïve? Has he not learnt from repeated false promises since 1991? But he has no alternative now; he wants sanctions which are biting deep lifted. The West is to blame for not making it clear from the beginning to Ukraine that it would never be allowed to join NATO. Why did it not do so? Because it needed a handle to screw the Russians; but the sorcerer’s apprentice has now broken out of control.
Global strategic and more important economic relationships have entered a period of profound change. The China-Russia economic equation will be transformed in the next decade into an aiya-malli (China-Russia respectively) relationship. The tens of billions China is pouring into the Second Silk Road can be more profitably and reliably invested nearer home. The high points will be energy, Chinese industries in Russia (why waste good money in god-forsaken Africa, Pakistan and Lanka?), high-tech and military high-tech to blunt the edge of American leadership, and most important, enabling a new global financial system that will bypass dollar-dominance. Yes, it’s a decade long process but it will start now. Furthermore, events in these weeks are a dress-rehearsal for when China physically acquires Taiwan; there is nothing Beijing sees more clearly than that.
But Putin should have persisted in diplomatic efforts unless Kiev made a practical move to NATO membership. A decades old clause in the Ukrainian Constitution does not amount to an imminent move. Yes, if Ukraine’s accession to membership was imminent it is tantamount to a declaration of war but that was not the case. However, what is more sinister and dangerous is that the US and NATO have lied time again promising not to expand NATO up to the Russian border and broken that pledge every time inching ever closer. While condemning Putin’s heavy-handed humanitarian, military and diplomatic blunders, Russia is justified in refusing to let anyone cross the aforesaid red-line. But I think Putin could have stopped NATO from enlisting Ukraine without going to such extremes.
The Red Cross estimates that 2.5 million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country. Damage to buildings is extensive (the two sides blame each other), civilian deaths add up to several hundred and thousands of soldiers on both sides have perished. Large anti-Putin demonstrations take place all over Europe each day and sizable spontaneous ones in many Russian cities. The tussle between NATO and financial powers that set its agenda on one side, and the you-know-who other side, seems endless. Please permit me unpoetic bowdlerisation:
Greed and power, ranging for payoff,
With the devil by their side have come hot from hell,
Cry ‘Havoc!’ and let slip the dogs of war
While carrion men will soon groan for burial.
Next let me do a thought experiment to give my Lankan readers a grasp of what’s similar and what’s not in our own story. The ethnonym Ukrainian is recent, just 20th Century (post-1917); previously, since the 14 hundreds the people called themselves Ruthenian. Afterwards they called themselves Little Russians (Malorossy) especially after Catherine the Great annexed the eastern portion – the two provinces now recognised by Russia as independent countries and the Crimean Peninsula in the 1770s. The larger portion in the west was overrun by different kingdoms till 1917 when all Ukrainians were recognised as a “nation” and the territory incorporated as a republic of the USSR. Compared to the old-Sinhalese, and Chola and Pandya periods of Sri Lanka it was a more recent, complicated and messy story. Nevertheless, the country does have two linguistic groups, about 80% Ukrainian speakers and about 20% Russian speakers.
The cultural relationship, apart from being more recent (one millennium in Ukraine as opposed to a little over two in our case) it is also thornier. Kiev, historically, was the religious, cultural and dynastic epicentre of Russian society since about 900AD. That is, it was Russia’s Anuradhapura but located in the “Tamil part” of the country. Catherine “took it back” nearly two millennia after Dutugemunu took back Anuradhapura. The Russian speaking portion, the Donbas region in which the two independent new states (Donetsk and Luhansk) are located are in the east and border Russia. An interesting thought experiment is, what if the Palk Strait was land, what if the Jaffna Peninsula was joined to India by land as it was for most of the 80,000 years prior to 10,000 BC? In my estimate the history of Lanka, Eelam and the IPKF (a Putinesque invasion) would have been immensely different. It’s not productive for me to speculate but readers can picture all sorts of outcomes in that scenario.
Nevertheless, I do not believe that India has any wish to incorporate our Lanka into the Union. It would have to be mad to wish to acquire this nation of loonies; neither Delhi nor Madras are that insane. India’s motives are related to geopolitical strategy; it does not want China or any great power to secure military facilities on its southern flank. In this the approach is akin to Russian strategy in Ukraine. Those who suggest that Putin is motivated to resurrect the Soviet Union, or a Russian Empire encompassing Russia, Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine must imagine that Putin is stark raving mad and has no grasp of the difference between the possible and impossible. Putin has blundered (see my “Putin’s self-inflicted fiasco”, Colombo Telegraph March 2) but he is not looney. “Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO; no nuclear weapons can be stationed there; it will have to remain a neutral buffer state”; that’s it. This bottom-line I support. What about a nuclear war? Well the way Putin sees it a nuclear stand-off is already here. Russia’s options are certainty of nuclear war down the line as the West expands its strategic, imperialistic-finance-capitalist options, or a hard bargain now.
In this context then the conditions India has set out for a billion-dollar loan if Basil’s oft deferred visit to Delhi is to materialise are tougher. The demands include maritime security agreements to strengthen India’s strategic interest around Trincomalee, surveillance aircraft for the Air Force, a ship repair dock in Trinco, posting an officer at an intelligence centre, the reopening Palaly airport for commercial operations and cultural projects in the Jaffna peninsula.
In respect of post-Soviet Russia, the question can be asked “Is Putin a communist?” The answer is a resounding NO. Putin’s faith is known and never in doubt; he is a is a devotee of the Russian Orthodox Church. He has helped and channelled huge funds to the Orthodox Church, the rebuilding of churches and to the spread of its tentacles. You may think this good or bad – are the saffron-obsessions of all our presidents and PMs since independence, good or bad? I think bad (ditto Putin), you may think otherwise. That’s not the point; the point is that he is not a communist in theory, ideology or practise; OK fine, that’s his right. Incidentally he is also an anti-Leninist and says the “thesis of the right of nations to self-determination” is harmful and responsible for the fragmentation of the USSR in 1991. Ukraine is confronted by an Orthodox Christian; we have a Hindutva fanatic on our doorstep.
Living next door to a big power is knotty. Infamous instances where war was/is certain if a line is crossed are:
The United States, the Monroe Doctrine and Cuba 1962.
China, the 9-dash line and refusal to permit any foreign forces to be stationed in Taiwan.
Russia and Ukrainian membership of NATO.
India and the point-blank stipulation of no Chinese military bases in Lanka.
The information blackout imposed by both sides turns the Western and Russian public into ignoramuses. Russian TV and broadcasts are banned throughout the EU. YouTube, Google, Meta and all the others prohibit Russian content. Western intelligence has successfully jammed RTV (the Russian channel) from many parts of Asia. The vapid BBC and mouthpiece-Economist are Western tools reminiscent of the Bush-Blair days where no counterpoint was heard. Likewise, Russia has introduced draconian laws including hash prison terms for anyone who opposes Putin’s way of talking or thinking. It is important for the citizens of the world to know all this and not swallow the daily doses of misinformation and false “analysis”. Humanity at large, not just Lanka’s hungry, electricity and fuel deprived masses, is passing through one of the worst of all possible times.
[Wednesday, 9 March 2022, noon GMT]
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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