Features
People’s-revolt yes; Arab-Winter no
by Kumar David
Writing a column about torrid events as they unfold is difficult. The President is cornered, government MPs and Cabinet are in disarray, finance ministry and central bank officials clown at the IMF as the country burns, the NPP march to Colombo was huge, a hartal is rumoured. Events move from day to day; comments are outdated before said. Situating the dynamic within a longer perspective may be valuable. I am trying something like that today; let’s see if it’s useful.
Armenia’s colour-revolution was a broad people’s movement that swept out a corrupt tyrant and restored democracy. Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s leader from 2008 was overthrown in 2018. Ask any Armenian, I know many, they will tell you, universally, that SS and his clique “robbed and robbed and robbed”. He rigged the 2008 election, crushed protests and shot 10 dead. He served the limit of two presidential terms, then made himself PM and then with the votes of a lap-dog parliament changed the constitution to secure absolute power. (Maybe he didn’t have convenient brothers). I’m not making all this up. Then like a golden dream came Armenia’s Velvet Revolution of May 2018. There have been other colour-revolutions but foreign manipulation or disgrace of the new leaders soiled some. Armenia’s worked; its leader Nicol Pashinyan is a still popular prime minister. Initially fired-up by educated middle-classes and idealist youth, the mass of workers, rural folk and poorer city classes were drawn in at a second stage, but mobilisation of the working masses was decisive. It was not a worker-peasant revolution but a democratic uprising that for eventual victory needed the masses as a whole.
The People’s Uprising in Lanka recent in weeks is a colour-revolution. A vision fair, a celebration of happier days we may live to see in days to come. A commentator on the web sang out: “Whatever the outcome this struggle will decide the future of Lanka. This is not the same as we have been in the past; it is a spontaneous public uprising against tyranny with no political/race/religious difference – Chiv”. The light beaming from the radiant eyes of thousands of young people is the first time in our 2,000-thousand-year history that we have seen anything like this. Even the Catholic Church has thrown its weight behind the People’s struggle.
But we must circumvent an Arab-Winter (failed Arab-Spring) which follows if things go wrong. Victory of a colour-revolutions and disaster are both within our reach. We are at a cusp. The former is the overthrow of a hated dictator, rouge families, political-cliques which embezzle without restraint, and power-greedy spawns of Satan who chop and change constitutions to retain power in covetous hands. “Proletarian Revolution” in the Leninist mould is off the table. International circumstances do not warrant the moronic notion of “Socialism in One-country”. But circumstances license hopes of victory of progressive social-democracy, perhaps via a liberal-democratic phase after we are rid of Gota.
But hopeful laughter may be beguiling; could our dreaming be in vain? Will we squander our energies and waste the golden hours of youth? The hours slip away; Toselli’s serenade can fly away. Early failure to understand the people’s protests flummoxed the JVP and NPP but they are now awake. The JVP the largest and most influential organisation on the left lacks deep roots in the middle class and among young idealists inspired by democracy. It saw not the young in one another’s arms, the generation that unexpectedly awakened. The JVP (and NPP) like a fish out of water were unable at first to grasp opportunity by the fetlock despite warnings from friends and comrades. It was losing the plot to Sajith and Peratugami. But this colour-revolution was just too big, it shook them up, it woke them. Now old fools like this one can relax; younger, brighter sparks have taken up the tasks of cogitation.
We are on the cusp between a golden dream and an Arab Winter. Gota will not resign, the Rajapaksas will not give up power, they have too much to lose, maybe their necks; these spawns of Satan cannot retreat. A few may flee to Los Angeles or Entebbe, but most of the clan and hangers-on see a shroud. Someone will have to cut the Gordian Knot. A hartal may be the people’s response but success cannot be judged at this time of writing (Wednesday 20th evening). The regime after shooting at Rambukkana may roll out the tanks; otherwise the people will drive out the (Raja)Paksas. However, golden dreams and love-light beaming from radiant eyes of the expectant young cannot alone defeat live ammunition. This is the lesson of failed Arab Springs; Egypt’s al Sissi’s coup, massacre in Syria, defeat in Libya, Algeria and Ethiopia.
The Rajapaksa game is reorganising the Cabinet and appointing junior cardboard puppets. Will they bring back stolen billions, undo damage of moronic decisions (fertiliser, green electricity, goofy ambassadorial and state corporate lackies, ex-militarists in sinecures, a crooked LNG contract). Can puppets dissolve debts and turn on energy by magic? What of the people’s deafening chant “Go Gota Go!”. The protests will not be fooled or compromise at less than ridding Lanka of President and PM. An irresistible force has slammed into an implacable and avaricious obstacle. Only the intervention of a third-force can tip the scales.
A mass walk from Beruwela to Colombo commenced on April 17, a record number entered Colombo on Tuesday (Apr. 19). The forces that can now enter the equation and tilt the balance are state employees, teachers and workers in the services (transport, electricity, banks, communications, petroleum, airports). Unless this class intervenes decisively on the side of the youthful idealists a purely middle-class liberal movement is doomed. The JVP’s Vijitha Herath, teachers’ union Stalin, nurses’ union Saman and many trade union leaders understand and are ready. Strategy is being refined; a start will made with a token strike. The next “long-march” is being planned, there is talk of hartal and general strike.
Do not let this happen, anywhere
The shooting at Rambukkana is a sign that the state may be preparing to use force majeure. My title last week Regime Braces for Confrontation seems to holding up. Or was the clash not intended by either side? Anger is swelling and incidents are spreading to all parts of the country except the North. The Tamils in the north have seen it all; petrol and food shortages, power cuts, police and army trucks rolling by every few minutes, so it’s an old story. Not even programmatic promises by the opposition are likely to excite them (none have been offered anyway); they have seen it all and been duped time and again.
The ingredients of a colour-revolution have to be structured and put together differently from the Armenian version. The Armenian leadership enjoyed the confidence of the middle-classes and youthful idealists from day one; there was no leadership vacuum. It’s different here. The People’s Movement as I call it has no recognised personal leaders; there are no names like Nicol Pashinyan and his lieutenants that stand out. The known radical leaders in Sri Lanka belong to the JVP and the NPP. It will be many years before the NPP and JVP can strengthen themselves sufficiently in the middle and educated classes. But right now, only they that can take the message to the masses. A novel leadership working-relationship will have to be worked out soon between different groups.
Neither Sajith-SJB nor the Preratugami can mobilise the working class and rural radicals on a sufficient scale. The former is not a fighting formation, the latter was born too late. The best the JVP and Frontline parties can do is merge. I have chatted with both from time to time; they are like nubile virgins: “He must ask first; we can do if he wants”. Childish! Sectarianism is a blight. Unless all in the opposition collaborate, it will be curtains for all; the recipe for an Arab-Winter, the Galle Face Winter.
[I will end on a nostalgic note. My political life has been parenthesised between two hartals. In 1953 I was 12 years old and it brought me to Samasamajism – books, Marx and theoretical b-s came later. Now 70 years-on as I wait in the departure lounge this happens to close the brackets! In the unlikely event that I am sent to heaven, maybe the Cardinal will issue a visa, there is one hell of a lot of explaining I will have to do].
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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