Features
Omicron: New coronavirus variant
By Dr. B.J.C. Perera
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin), FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
There does not seem to be an end to the woes caused by this potentially noxious nasty bug of a coronavirus that is the causative organism of the disease COVID-19. The latest is the emergence of a brand-new variant that has been found to spread at frightening speed. It has already started to wreak havoc in many countries. Many scientists and researchers are of the opinion that this new variant is the one that causes most concern since the arrival of the Delta variant which caused relentless waves of the disease in many countries in the not-too-distant past. The emergence of the new variant has led to grave concerns all over the world although not much is known about it. The sheer lack of adequate information on this variant has left all somewhat confused and has instilled in the general populace fear of impending doom.
The variant under discussion has the scientific designation of B.1.1.529. These technical labels are rather cumbersome and the World Health Organisation (WHO), in May 2021, started naming the variants of the coronavirus that cause COVID-19, using letters of the Greek alphabet rather than the awkward scientific tags. The new variant has been designated the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet, ‘Omicron’, with the alphabetical label ‘Oo’, for general use. Omicron is pronounced ‘Oh-my-kron’ or ‘Omi-kron’. The symbol literally means ‘little O’. The WHO declared it as a ‘variant of concern’ or VOC in November 2021.
One of the most disturbing things about the coronavirus is that it constantly mutates. Many new variants of the virus have emerged over the past year and a half, and more new strains could appear in the future. As the virus replicates and spreads more rapidly, the chances of developing mutations that lead to the emergence of new variants increase proportionately. After a brief respite from the considerable problems caused by the Delta variant, Omicron has been declared as the latest VOC by the WHO due to its high number of mutations. The earliest sample of the variant is said to have been detected in Botswana on November 11, 2021.
It has now been linked to a fresh surge in infections in parts of South Africa. So far, Omicron has been reported in travellers to Belgium, Hong Kong, and Israel, apart from South Africa. Other variants of concern, including Beta, were also first detected in South Africa. According to reports as at the time of writing this article, the new variant Omicron has been detected in over 100 countries. It is spreading considerably fast in Africa, some European countries and also in the United States of America. From the time of its first detection, over 150,000 positive cases have been detected in just one month. The real number may be considerably higher as these numbers represent only those who have been tested and sophisticated tests are required to categorise detections and to confirm which ones are infected with the Omicron variant. A few cases have been detected in Sri Lanka and when one states ‘few’ it is only those who have been subjected to special tests such as gene sequencing, that need to be performed before a particular strain could be definitely categorised as the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
It is not quite clear as yet whether Omicron will replace Delta, but scientists say that it will be a few weeks before they can clearly define the type of disease this variant causes and understand for sure as to how contagious it is. As with other variants, some infected people display no symptoms. Early evidence, however, suggests that Omicron has an increased risk of reinfection compared with other highly transmissible variants. This means that people who had contracted COVID-19 and recovered from it could be at some risk of catching it again.
Why do new COVID-19 variants keep showing up? Will existing vaccines work against it? The biggest question on everyone’s mind is whether protection from the current COVID-19 vaccines will hold up against the Omicron variant as well. Also, will people previously infected with the coronavirus be immune to reinfection with the new variant? While scientists don’t yet have clear answers to those questions, they have said that the Omicron variant has over 30 mutations in the part of the virus that existing vaccines target; more than double the number carried by Delta. This may reduce vaccine efficiency, they say. However, these are all theoretical predictions, and studies are being conducted to determine how effectively antibodies neutralise the new variant. Medical experts do not expect Omicron to go entirely unrecognised by existing antibodies.
It has been suggested that the actual disease caused by the Omicron variant is perhaps milder than that caused by earlier strains. However, this contention should not be taken at face value as there are several other confounding factors which may play a part as far as the severity of the disease is concerned. The variant emerged at a time when the entire immune profile of the populations in many countries may have changed significantly either due to recovery from earlier strains of the virus or due to significant levels of vaccination against COVID-19. Yet for all that, an important aspect that needs to be considered is how the new variant would behave in susceptible people over the age of 60 and those with other coexisting morbidities such as diabetes, high blood pressure, kidney disease and lung disorders, particularly if and when these comorbidities are not under control.
At this point in time, no robust information is available on the severity of infections the new variant causes or whether it leads to a change in COVID-19 symptoms. It will take several weeks before clear data is available to determine this. Though the Omicron variant is thought to be more transmissible and somewhat resistant to vaccines than other variants, we are not absolutely sure of anything right now. However, if required, existing vaccines could be updated to deal with the Omicron variant. That would require several trials, and it might take four to six months for the updated vaccines to be widely available. Will it spread everywhere in the world? Given that this new variant has proven to be highly transmissible, it is quite likely to have spread to many countries undetected. Health experts warn that there is no reason to overreact or panic over this new variant, as its main characteristics and potential threats are still under investigation. All experts continue to stress that vaccination remains critically important, as all real-time data suggests that it protects against hospitalisation and death. Moreover, it also considerably reduces the strain on health systems. If anything, the emergence of the new variant indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic will perhaps not end until we reach high rates of global vaccination.
Scientists are now trying to model Omicron’s global trajectory, which depends on two factors. One is its innate contagiousness, or transmissibility. The second is its capacity to evade the human immune system. Determining how much transmissibility and immune evasion contribute to the variant’s spread is what will allow us to predict how many people Omicron might infect and how fast at that.
Transmissibility reflects the virus’s ability to replicate in human cells and move from person to person. It depends on all sorts of biological processes. Does it bind more easily to receptors in people’s lungs? Do you shed it more efficiently and spew more of it out so you can infect more people? Immune system evasion, on the other hand, is the capacity of the virus to avoid antibodies that would otherwise mark it for destruction by the body, as well as an ability to dodge various immune system cells.
A key step in gauging a virus’s spread is to start with one infected person and estimate how many other people will contract the virus from that individual. In an ongoing pandemic, scientists try to capture that estimate with a value called the effective reproduction number, or Rt. The variable ‘t’ represents the number of secondary infections and depends on the effects of other people’s immunity, seasonal weather patterns, public health interventions and other limits on viral transmission. Rt can change from minute to minute depending on real-world conditions. We use it to determine how fast an outbreak is growing, or shrinking. A value of R2, for instance, means that one person will infect two others while a value of R5 means the person will spread the virus to five individuals, increasing the number of infected people much faster.
Rt estimates for Omicron are now beginning to emerge. On December 9, South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) reported that by early November, Rt in that country had stabilised at values below one, signifying cases were actually falling during a period when Delta was the dominant variant and it was up against widespread immunity in the population. But then Rt shot up suddenly in mid-November. It is now greater than 2 throughout most of the country and exceeds 2.5 in some of the more densely populated provinces. Scientists in the United Kingdom’s Health Security Agency have since reported an Rt of 3.7 for Omicron itself. That disturbingly high number, presented in a technical briefing released on December 10, is based in part on data showing that Omicron infections in the UK are doubling every three days. At that pace, Omicron presents a much larger threat in terms of case counts than Delta.
Lastly, it is important to remember that experts are still learning on the go, and that what we know today may not represent the full picture, or may not even be valid tomorrow. Omicron, the new COVID-19 variant, may prove ultimately to have the potential to set us back to square one in the fight against the pandemic. Mutations thrive in populations where the virus is able to spread unhindered. By hoarding vaccines and leaving much of the world unprotected, rich countries have created the perfect recipe for variants. Despite world leaders’ promises to share doses and vaccinate the world, only a fraction of what is needed has been delivered. While rich countries are focused on booster shots and closing borders again, less than three percent of people living in poorer countries are fully vaccinated.
We are all fed up with COVID-19 and want to get on with our lives without this blight. We want to read about it in history books, not on our news feeds. However, the longer world leaders continue to drag their feet, the longer we will be stuck in this never-ending cycle of variants, boosters, lockdowns and travel bans. This needs to be the wakeup call that pushes world leaders to finally act. Right now, rich nations are discussing a coordinated response to the Omicron variant. We need to remind them that viruses do not care about borders and continents. The only way out is to make vaccines available everywhere and to everyone. We want 2022 to be the year we can feel confident about waving goodbye to COVID-19 for good. Together, we can make that happen. We need to ask leaders to do what it takes to end the pandemic once and for all. To escape an endless cycle of variants, boosters, and restrictions, everyone must have equal access to vaccines, no matter where they live. Such a response also needs to be rapid. Unfortunately, time is not on our side.
(The writer is a Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow, Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo)
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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