Features
Of lives and livelihoods
by Usvatte-aratchi
We seem to face a complicated set of problems in handling the epidemic Covid-19 in our country. The infection rate is well above 1. The number identified to have been infected during the last few days has been counting up to 2,000. That is alarmingly high. Consequent upon the rapid rise in infections, there are four tightening bottlenecks: there is an emerging scarcity of hospital beds; the number of acute-care-beds is well short of probable requirements; healthcare personnel are exhausted and short in supply; and the supply and distribution of clinical oxygen may dangerously fall well short of the number of patients distributed over the island that need such care. That is when the capacity of the system will be tested and the current death rate of those being infected will rise rapidly from the present 0.65 per hundred of the infected. The conversion of existing hospitals to accommodate corona patients and the construction of field hospitals may solve the first problem. It is well to remember that the conversion of existing hospitals to accommodate corona patients will be at the expense of beds for non-corona-virus patients.
The scarcity of acute care beds can be very dangerous and there is no alternative to emergency purchase of equipment, when other countries themselves may find it difficult to release such equipment. As with hospital beds, the diversion of health care personnel to treat corona patients will be at cost to other patients. Eventually, when other morbidities are counted, departures from the normal will tell its own tale. Health care personnel from physicians to those that disinfect premises have worked with tremendous dedication and high efficiency. The availability of such persons may be the most strictly binding constraint to saving lives. We have been re-assured that the two factories that produce clinical oxygen have capacity to increase production fast enough to avoid shortages. Distribution to hospitals, as their locations spread wide, may pose problems. All these exigencies arose because we failed to stem the tide of invading infections. We have had ample time to prevent the emergence of these exigencies. Incompetence and complacency among policy makers seem to have conspired to put the population at severe risks and to their unfortunate consequences. Our government did well in early 2020 to lockdown the country, close boundaries and keep the invasion at bay. That may have engendered a sense of undue complacency.
The corona-19 infection is far more widespread than the Spanish flu that ravaged most parts of the world 1919-1920. Although the numbers are not beyond dispute, the best judgement is that some 3.5 percent of those infected died in that epidemic. That wider spread of the epidemic in 2020-21 is explained by the increased mobility of people and goods now compared to that which prevailed 100 years ago. With advances in medical care, the fast discovery of effective vaccines and more effective organization, we should do much better this time round. With nearly 18 months from the beginning of the epidemic in China, there was a wealth of experience that we, in this country, could have learned from. The first experience in fighting the epidemic was in Wuhan, a city of about 11 million people in Hubei Province with some 60 million people.
The Chinese authorities locked down the city completely for more than six weeks. The lockdown was strict with no political ignoramuses countermanding the restrictions imposed by the officials, supported, of course, by CCP. Gates to some apartment buildings were barred from outside with strips of steel. When the epidemic appeared further east, the same prescription was administered. China was the first to be infected and the first to see its back, the latter a truly remarkable achievement with the crowded eastern seaboard. These methods may not be replicable in other societies but variants were applied in other parts of the world. Vietnam closed its long border with China very early. It closed its airs pace for flights from southern China. It locked down the country effectively. The government spoke to the people frequently. Vietnam has had for some decades a commendable public health system (see its infant mortality and maternal mortality figures for the 1980s). New Zealand and Australia stand out as success stories. New Zealand closed its air space to those outside and imposed a lockdown inside the country. Australia down communities, even large cities like Melbourne, as the threat of widespread infection appeared. Australia had gone so far as to keep out their own citizens, when they wished to return from a dangerously infected land.
There is both thought about the policy and determination in its execution. Now neither New Zealand nor Australia runs the risk of runaway infection. Among other countries, some expected the epidemic to run out if steam when it had infected a large enough number in the population (herd immunity). Among those were Sweden, US with Donald Trump as president, and Brazil with seemingly idiosyncratic Jair Bolsonaro as president. Sweden soon realized the implausibility of its expectation and they still suffer very high infection rates. US had to await the arrival of Joseph Biden as president, who took the advice of scientists and physicians, to galvanise a program of vigorous vaccination and has now 200 million persons fully or partially vaccinated. Britain, after a period of strict lockdown has used its excellent NHS to vaccinate about 67% of its population. The outstanding success is that small country Israel, which is so free of the virus now, that they shake hands casually.
The information below from Johns Hopkins (copied from The Economist) shows you success in vaccination in several countries up to May 6, 2021 . The small population of Bhutan (Bho tan, land’s end), up in the tail end of Himalayas, as well as atolls Maldives have wisely vaccinated their populations. Maldives is especially instructive to us because of the importance of tourism in its economy. In contrast, the massive population of India has been reeling under the weight of the irresistible spread of the infection. The attitude of the government with a population not alive to the true nature of the infection has left that population helpless against the onslaught. Even the rich states of Gujerat and Maharashtra have been hotbeds of infection.
The unregulated celebration of Kumbh mela where millions of devotees assemble in the small town Hardwar for several days provided the ideal fertile ground where SARS–Cov-2 thrived. The enthusiasm of both Trinamool and BJP to win the election in Bengal caused the gathering of large crowds in various parts of that densely populated state. The spread of the infection in Bengal is yet to be seen. These lackadaisical attitudes of the BJP government have made India one of the most severely infected countries in the world.
We have to take account of inadequate public health in the country, despite the first rate AIIMS hospitals in cities. India has some of the largest vaccine producing facilities in Maharashtra. Yet, there has been no plan for vigorous vaccination of the population, formidable as that task will be. In Sri Lanka no more than 5% of the population has been vaccinated to date.
(see the image)
Sri Lanka has had excellent public health services for decades. The elimination of childhood diseases and infectious disease bear witness to their excellence. Derivative evidence is the low infant mortality rate, the low maternal mortality rate and the consequent high average expectation of life at birth.
The public health services have been constructed with the commitment of wise and farseeing government leaders who provided the physical facilities and the dedication and commitment of physicians and support staff, on wages unattractive in most countries. In this compact land, communications are very good by most standards, now vastly improved with highspeed motorways. To an impartial observer there are long standing reasons why the covid epidemic should not take hold here. But alas, it has.
It has because the government opened airports and new mutations of SARS-CoV-2 marched in the company of visa holders. The new mutations evidently transfer themselves from one person to another, faster than the ones that prevailed locally. The government decided that in the race between lives and livelihoods that livelihoods are what mattered more than lives. The argument, which runs as follows, is not without merit. Covid-2019 kills. But so does the scarcity of livelihoods. It is more important to maintain livelihoods than prevent infections. Therefore, do not lockdown the country but lockdown localities selectively; the selection depending on the incidence of infections in the locality. By the time a locality is locked down, it has high infection; the community has been wounded and then it is locked down to lick its wounds, so to say. In the meanwhile, people from other parts of the country had been infected by people who now ae sequestrated. The three districts in the western province, for several days now, have contributed more than half the high number of infections in the country. Selective lock down of localities have not abated the rate of infection either in those districts or elsewhere. More intensive interaction among people in these districts contributes to the growth of infections. Consequently, it is more sensible to strictly lock down the country, as Wuhan and Hubei were locked down for nearly two months. More intense infection and high number of deaths compel people to lock themselves down. The evidence is in the cancellation of passenger trains by CGR and buses idling in depots for lack of passengers. In Colombo itself, roads are almost empty. There is no evidence anywhere that the denial of livelihoods consequent upon such lock down killed any large numbers. Nor is there evidence yet, that they contributed to stunting and wasting in children. Government must spend to maintain minimum standards of living during the lockdown. Yes, doing so will reduce the value of the rupee both internally and externally but that is the way that the population at large rather than those in low income groups alone bear the burden of the policies. That is also the way that the rampant ravage of the infection can be brought under control.
The respite gained by the lockdown must be used to vaccinate some 65%-70% of the population. The development of vaccines to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is a triumph of modern science, medical technology and the strength of pharmaceutical companies and other organisations. Governments which foresaw the use of vaccinations in controlling the infection contracted with providers to supply them with vaccinations. Some either did not foresee that need, could not find the resources to contract with suppliers or were pre-occupied with other concerns. We fall into the second category and pay a price, in both in lives and in livelihoods for our failure to procure vaccines. We have seen the effectiveness of vaccination in checking the spread of the infection in US, Britain and Israel and other countries. We have also seen the failure of US with Donald Trump, Brazil with Bolsonaro and India with Modi to vaccinate their people resulting large scale infection and the loss of lives. When the number of deaths rises to 7 million from the present 3.5 million, the world will have lost 1 per 1,000 of its population; a tremendous cost. Our government needs to sit back and re-consider its own policies. Silly heroic stands of ‘ I do not change my mind’ will do us all in.
From that point of view, the debate on the epidemic in Parliament on April 6, was a grave disappointment. Neither the Opposition nor the government gained any stature in the course of the debate. The Opposition did not present an analysis of the problems facing the country and propose alternative policies to solve them and their own preferred choice. The government did not articulate its policies and seek justification for them. A minister of government, who is also a professor of medicine, and who wound up the debate for the government, at the end of a combative response, issued a report card with a load of F’s to the Opposition. That debate in Parliament, as is usual, generated ‘a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours’. The public of this country deserve better.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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