Features
Evaluating trends in the JVP-NPP
by Kumar David
The government is in retreat analysts say. Strategists in the opposition, smelling blood, are hopeful of replacing President and Parliamentary majority in 2024 and 2025, if not earlier in the event of a debacle. It is a sign of the times that Namal and his wife were jeered and compelled to flee Monarch Imperial, a posh restaurant, on December 23 said the Daily Mirror of the next day. In this context there are four national groups of importance – JVP-NPP, SJB-Sajith, TNA and the scattered Muslim parties. The first two have national ambitions and the latter two sub-national (not lead a government). The SLPP has not yet given up the ghost and under Mahinda’s leadership hallucinates recovery. Sajith hankers after the presidency. The JVP-NPP is motivated to get enough parliamentary seats to be one step away from power. I discount Ranil’s UNP, the SLFP and every other faction of the government as a centrepiece of any future government. Presidential ambitions: Sajith, Champika, Karu, and from the (Raja) Paksa-clan Gota second term or Namal, all crave the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
It is premature to make predictions but strategies are ripening; the NPP has issued a draft programme and JVP Secretary Tilvin Silva a strategy letter in the December 20 issue of Mawilma (Compass) the NPP’s monthly magazine-newsletter. I will discuss the programmes of the aforementioned four and the government side as they become available, but right now only the JVP-NPP version is to hand. I will not confine myself to the document but also comment on broad strategy in the context of the unfolding scenario. For example, I will spell out my views on the JVP-NPP’s orientation to military intimidation.
The NPP’s “Rapid Response” Manifesto
The platform entitled “Rapid Response to Overcome Current Challenges” opens with a preface outlying Sri Lanka’s manifest debacle followed by a section entitled ‘A Thriving Economy Instead of a Dependent Economy’ which declares “As National People’s Power we present initial ideas for the socio-economic transformation that society needs”. https://www.npp.lk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NPP-Booklet-English.pdf
The document is heavy on economic aspects, less so on state-structure, constitutional reform and the national question. It gives prominence to comprehensive short, medium and economic goals and includes a section on preparing the human resources required for plan implementation. It critiques JR’s Open Economy as the origin of the current malaise and for initiating a culture of greed which bred a select group which benefited from profit, fraud and corrupt business practices, and vested power in a few hands. Features of JR’s policy were ‘financialisation’, austerity, subsidy cuts, nurturing monopolies, excessive borrowing, and the sale of state assets to a favoured coterie; neoliberalism Sri Lanka style. Emphasis on financial markets undermined commodity production says the manifesto and accuses post-independence policy makers of not managing the economy for eco-friendly and people oriented outcomes and failing to even protect the place the country previously occupied in foreign trade. Instead there has been borrowing for narrow political and personal gain of rulers (Hambantota Harbour, Mattala Airport, Mr 10% etc.) but not borrowing for development. The document should have emphasised that a Tourism and Remittance based economy is not production oriented.
The end result, the NPP says is near bankruptcy leaving the country enmeshed in a vicious cycle of debt and foreign currency shortages. The nexus of Manufacturing-Technology-Education-Exports-Foreign Investment targeted at production are all mentioned, but the presentation could have been better integrated. The role of the private sector is noted but employing the state as vehicle to enable entrepreneurship as in China could have been emphasised. Interestingly the document also warns that “The people responsible for creating the debt trap will not be allowed to escape from liabilities”. Hope this is not another empty threat!
In respect of state-structure the NPP urges a strong parliament with a cabinet accountable to parliament and elimination of the executive presidency where power is “arbitrarily concentrated in one person”. The president is to be elected by parliament as the ceremonial head of state and the armed forces. Governance is to be led by the prime minister and the cabinet with checks and balances. The right to recall representatives will be introduced – an important new provision. The separation of power between the executive, legislature and judiciary is to be ensured. What more could any blue-blooded liberal ask for?
The National Question is the Achilles’ heel of all Sinhalese politics because even anti-racist parties know that a bold position regarding minorities will spell their doom. This perception is correct; the core of the problem lies with the Sinhalese people. (It’s well and good for me, not warming a seat in parliament to say this, but which Sinhalese party can say this and hope to win even a few seats?) The LSSP story is a frightening reminder of the truth that eventually it is the people, not the leaders, who make history. NM was prepared to demand ‘Parity of Status’, Colvin raged against Sinhala Only, Reggie Mendis lost a hand at the Town Hall grounds deflecting a bomb thrown by a racist bomb. But then in a decade plus, pressure wore down the Party. Every Sinhalese party has been frightened by such lessons. That my dear countrymen is Lanka!
The programme promises a system of governance that decentralises political and administrative power based on democracy, equal representation, and participation, “affirming the Sri Lankan identity” of all nationalities (sic!). It resolves to make the Provincial Councils efficient institutions – note, not to abolish them. It promises a commission (dear God another god forsaken commission!) with powers to prevent discrimination against any individual or social group based on nationality, religion, caste, language, gender, or sexual orientation – why not the laws of the land do this, I ask? The NPP-JVP promises to take steps to acknowledge cultural differences between different communities and to promote coexistence within this matrix.
The drafters seem to have been in difficult terrain bridging three concepts; liberal democracy, radical rejection of ethnic exclusivity and any notion that Lanka is the land of the Sinhala Buddhists. As a political realist I find the NPP’s phrasing adequate though I will tease it about the missing elephant ‘devolution of power’. The difference from Sajith-SJB is that from personal knowledge of JVPers I know that the Sinhala-JVP of the 1960-70s and the anti-13A Somawansa Amerasinghe JVP of the 1980s, are both gone for good. If you detect any slippage on the national question in this programme blame not the NPP, hold the Sinhalese people to account.
JVP Secretary Tilvin Silva’s Approach
The Party Secretary is the official spokesman and his emphases are significant. What I detect is that Tilvin is, perhaps, concerned not to make too many concessions to liberalism in the economic programme. He emphasises “paradigm shift”. But I am not sure what he means when he critiques “the old State-monopolistic capitalistic system”. Is he referring to the Stalinist centralised universally-planned state economy or the Sirima-NM model of 1970-75? Perhaps both. I agree that a fresh approach to economic problem solving, including an understanding of why the liberal-capitalist model, the Sirima-NM guided model and Stalinist regimented economy all failed is needed. He does not comment on the avatar of the Deng Xiao Ping model as transferred to Vietnam and Mongolia. There is much to learn from these two since there has been substantial manufacturing, economic and export growth, while benefits have percolated down to the people and hence the regimes have sustained public approval.
Here is an extract from Tilvin’s Malima article. “This crisis is now a challenge to the people. Its real cause is not merely factors such as Gotabaya’s personal failure. The real reason for this is the bankrupt and wrong socio-economic system still being followed in the country. Therefore, there is an inescapable challenge to everyone who expects a real and sustainable solution to the crisis. It is defeating the system of roll-over politics and handing over the country to people trusting in various political personalities. Further, reverting back to the old State-monopolistic capitalistic system as a solution to the neo-liberal economic model is also not feasible. What the country is honestly requesting for is a deep and vast paradigm-shift in the socio-economic system. There is no other real solution to this problem.” Tilvin Silva, Malima, 20 Dec 2021; (Available from JVP, 464/20, Pannipitiya Road, Battaramulla. Phones: 0112 785612, 0777 199524, 0714458399, 0718449424).
An ex-LSSP, ex-Vaama comrade
Readers of my column are familiar with the two themes I have been emphasising in recent months: (a) The regime is buckling in a huge crisis; (b) nevertheless it is very dangerous – it cannot be trusted and is prone to military adventurism. This is Comrade Puwakpitiya’s response to my importuning that he pushes both these ideas in the NPP; he is quite close to NPP policymakers. I quote from a recent email.
“I think it is premature. We should consolidate our base at working class and village level so that we can intervene as a powerful force. We do not see a threat of militaristic intervention. The government is too weak at the moment and I do not see any way it can come out of this. If the situation changes, we can reconsider. At the moment there is space for us to work towards an alternative political movement” – Puwakpitiya.
Though he is agreement with my assessment of the mess in government, at the same time he shows naïve underestimation of potential dangers. To wait till the “situation changes” to make defensive alignments is like a man who waits till after his death to take an insurance policy! The costs of an adventure by a regime which cannot “come out” of a disastrous meltdown are too catastrophic to wait till it happens. There are two Christmas season examples on the world’s TV screens right now. The Burmese military is on a rampage of brutal bloody crackdown, rape and murder including indiscriminate airstrikes on Karen and Kachin minorities precisely because the junta is in a social and economic crisis. In Sudan on Christmas Day the military mobilised thousands of troops to spray gunfire on protests against a “government too weak to come out of” its crisis except by such methods. The Sri Lanka military has tasted blood in 1989 and against Tamils in the 30-year civil war. Thus waiting “for the situation to change” is complacent. The costs of complacency will be very high if there if a military venture is attempted (anarchy plus economic, ethnic and civil conflict). What’s the objection to establishing a minimal defensive covenant of the whole opposition right now? How will this obstruct “consolidation of a base at working class and village level”? Why is it an either-or formulation?
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
US sports envoys to Lanka to champion youth development
Rahuman questions sudden cancellation of leave of CEB employees
