Features
Your slip is showing Mr President
by Kumar David
An apocryphal youth inquired from the President “why a referendum couldn’t be conducted to ascertain whether the electorate (would approve) extending his term by two years”, says the front page of the Island of Monday January 10. Presidents don’t float kites like this unless they have intrigue up their sleeve. Soon you will hear a chorus of Ministers and government MPs cheering “Hallelujah! Gotabaya for ever, two years, five years whatever!” Those who decried JR’s referendum to postpone elections in 1982 loudest, will be the cheerleaders this time; I am itching to hear the phonies of the Dead-Left. The point is that this is no casual remark. Gotabaya and his cronies are testing the waters and unless society drowns it pronto, cronies will push the plans forward. A Presidential Media Division does not issue statements confirming the story and patting the mythical brat on the back with the remark that the President quipped “he should be appointed an advisor to the President” unless desperation is driving him to the brink.
Deceptions
Former President Sirisena has declared his support for SLFP ex General Secretary Susil Premjayantha who was unceremoniously fired from his State Ministership for calling a spade a spade (Ministers Bandula Gunawardane and Mahindananda Aluthgamage, he said, were incompetent nincompoops; this is not news). Ministers Vasudeva, Wimal Weerawansa and Gamanpila have gone to court against Cabinet decisions but shamelessly remain glued to their perks. State Minister Vidura Wickremanayake and MP Wijeyadasa Rajapakse have castigated Cabinet and regime leaders as a bunch of crooks. A flustered GL Peiris in the meantime is trying his darndest to keep the sinking ship afloat. It is in these stormy seas that the Gotabaya presidency is fighting to stay afloat. I find it difficult to understand how the government keeps afloat, how it gets anything done and whether the “new constitution” is going to be dead before birth.
In the meantime there has been other comments about regime’s existential crisis. Why for example would a pro-Gota website distort an Anura Kumara (AKD) interview, or why is falsified economic data splashed by the Central Bank? APF Fact-Check reported a falsified posting on YouTube in a Sinhala pro-Gota channel with a large following which declared that JVP leader AKD had recommended that Sri Lanka produce Spiderman movies as a foreign exchange earner to overcome its disastrous foreign exchange crunch. “How the dollar problem is solved under Anura Kumara’s government”. See:
https://factcheck.afp.com/http%253A%252F%252Fdoc.afp.com%252F9VN4FH-1.
The report, a fabrication, is one of many such canards in circulation. A learned professor remarked in an email to me “Perhaps it is a sign that the NPP is such a danger to the regime that it has no option but to falsify”. The statement attributed to AKD is of course untrue and AKD’s interview in Sinhala is at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXk3fjD5Tu4.
Exodus
Hitler issued the first anti-Jewish proclamation in April 1933 and stripped all non-Aryan academics of their posts; more than 100 physicists lost their jobs. The fear of fascism and anti-Semitism led to mass migration of physicists, mainly but not only Jews from Eastern, Central and Southern Europe from before 1930; Einstein (NL, German, J), Niels Bohr (NL, Dane), John von Neumann (Hungarian, J), Michael Polanyi (Pole, J), Enrico Fermi (Italian, J-wife), Edward Teller (Hungarian, J), Eugene Wigner (NL, Hungarian, J), Theodor von Karman (Hungarian, J) and Max Born (NL, German, J). [NL stands for Nobel Laureate, the nationality is at birth and J stands for Jewish or part Jewish].
It is arguable whether Hitler lost the war because he opened a second-front by invading the USSR in June 1941, or was it the loss of the finest of Europe’s physicists? There was no truly world class physics lab outside America by mid-1930s except New Zealander Ernst Rutherford’s Cavendish in Cambridge. When one of “Rutherford’s boys” John Chadwick isolated the neutron all hell broke loose since fission of the U235 nucleus by neutron bombardment became possible. The race for the Atom Bomb was on and Hitler lost despite Werner Heisenberg (NL), Otto Han, Walther Bothe and other brilliant theoreticians in Nazi Germany. Unlike the Manhattan Project the Germans could not get the theoretical and experimental sides to merge seamlessly, and organisation, industrial support and carte blanche political backing was inadequate.
There is a reason for this short diversion. This country has suffered from a terrible exodus of talent since 1983. The first deluge was Tamils but able Sinhalese intellectuals too saw and grasped the opportunity. It was not confined to science related disciplines; talented scholars in the humanities and sharp witted business and financial minds too moved because they had lost hope. This was followed by a second exodus, this time skilled craftsmen to the Middle-East, again not only because of greener pastures but also since a stagnant economy had little use for their talents. In the last two years we see the third wave. Tens of thousands of young people queuing for passports and emigrant visas because “the country is going to the dogs”. A simple change of government alone will not address the issue. A much deeper transformation of mind-set and economic direction is needed.
A fork in the road
The outside world didn’t realise that a volcano was smouldering in Kazakhstan. Long standing legitimate grievances were accumulating and a spark set off an explosion. To that extent the background is like Sri Lanka today. Prices have been rising for three years, the income gap had been widening and the population in poorer Eastern Kazakhstan was as badly-off as the majority here. Another similarity is that corruption was running out of control. The spark that ignites an inferno is always unforeseeable and in Kazakhstan it was in the oil rich western part of the country that an uprising broke out first. Large crowds then took over the centre of Almaty the country’s biggest city, occupied the airport and brought governance to a halt. The President, a dictatorial lout panicked, dismissed the Cabinet and sent out the troops.
The lower levels of the military did not mutiny though every soldier knew how worthless the government was (Anura Kumara please note); the army shot the people. Any Marxist worth his salt knows that the principal purpose of a military is to oppress the grassroots in the interests of ruling classes and corrupt regimes. Armies are trained, drilled and brainwashed over decades to obey orders like robots. It is rarely that an army mutinies and passes over to the side of the people as in October-November 1917. A lesson of today’s international conjuncture that the JVP needs to assimilate is the conduct of the military, including rank-and-file soldiers in Burma, Sudan, many African theatres in 2020-21, and now Kazakhstan. One would have thought the JVP would have learnt this lesson from its experiences in 1971 and 1989.
It is important to analyse events overseas and distil lessons for SL. Furthermore a critical issue in Sri Lanka is that the military is largely a creation of the Rajapaksa-Sinhala Buddhist nationalist ethos. Its response to dissent against the GR Regime needs to be foreseen in that context.
But one still hears some JVPers remark “Isn’t the first principle of a defensive alliance that it is not set up in public?!!!” This is a throwback to the pre-1971 conspiratorial mind-set where the party acted in secrecy hidden from the masses in thoroughly un-Leninist fashion. The JVP it was said would accomplish the revolution and present the finished product to a grateful people!!
Kazakhstan proves that when conditions go beyond a tipping point a spark can set off widespread instability. Likewise with a rout staring him in the face moves by the beleaguered Sri Lankan President to postpone presidential elections, if attempted, could well be that spark. My big concern is that a power grab or coup should be PREVENTED BEFORE IT HAPPENS. For this an open, formidable and coordinated show of force by all opposition entities is essential. After a power grab turning back will take years of anarchy, conflict and even civil war; vide Burma, Sudan and Mali. This is a repeated lesson of history. I have driven myself hoarse repeating it, but it has fallen on stone-deaf ears. “None are so blind as those who have eyes but cannot see”.
A commentator responding to my mid-week Colombo Telegraph mini-column on Wednesday remarked “The summary of Prof Kum’s (Kumar David’s) dissertation is. (1) Where there are shortages of essentials such as food, public unrest can occur. (2) When the military is called upon to quell unrest it will execute the task mercilessly. (3) Prof K expects Anura K & Co (JVP) to make note of (2) in Kazakhstan. The third point is interesting because there are stories afloat that the JVP will work with the military for a takeover and there was a newspaper articles saying this” – Good Sense.
This last observation is most alarming. Even those who cannot accept the rumour reported by Good Sense will have to concede that the JVP itself is to blame. When you, the party that is rocketing up in popularity, refuse to take the lead in mobilising the people against potential coups and election postponements you are sowing the seeds of doubt against yourself.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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