Features
Worker remittance inflows lose steam
Why they are important and how to revive them
By Charith Gamage
In a period of decreasing reserves and foreign exchange shortages, migrant worker remittances had once been a welcome stream of income for Sri Lanka in fulfilling its foreign exchange shortfalls. With the recent sharp fall in remittances, the ongoing situation is causing chaos in the island nation’s mission to increase foreign exchange revenues. The following is an examination of how remittances aided Sri Lanka in the past, the causes of the sudden drop, and most importantly, how to keep remittances flowing as before.
“That’s a nice set of coloured pencils; where did you buy it?” This is not an uncommon question a Sri Lankan student would ask their classmate after noticing that they have a school accessory not commonly available in Sri Lanka. The friend explains that it wasn’t bought from a local shop but that it has instead been sent by a parent working abroad. Although it is a trivial conversation at school, it reveals a unique segment in the Sri Lankan economy.
Nearly 1.5 million of the country’s labour force, ranging from unskilled to skilled and professional, migrate for employment purposes. These workers frequently contact their families and send home part of their earnings and occasional goods. These remittances, that trickle down to the larger economy, have been a vibrant component that balances out the island nation’s foreign exchange position in respect to the rest of the world.
At a time when the external sector is confronted with daunting challenges such as depleting foreign exchange reserves and a stumbling dollar-rupee exchange rate, there has recently been a sharp drop in remittances, making the efforts to get on top of the country’s forex crunch an uphill battle. As of October 2021, Sri Lanka’s remittances receipts have dropped 14 percent compared with the respective period of 2020. This divergence has become increasingly acute in recent months, with inward remittances in September and October 2021 falling sharply to USD 353 and 317 million, respectively, the lowest levels for both months since 2010 and 2009. (Data sources: CBSL historical data and the provisional figures mentioned in the institution’s weekly reports; the November and December 2021 figures were not known at the time of writing this article)
Why are remittances important?
Before explaining the reasons behind the recent shortfall, a simple current account analysis, which summarises what countries spend and take in from abroad, provides a more comprehensive picture of the importance of this vital economic undercurrent.
The current account (CA) of countries like Sri Lanka can be written as CA = (X-M) + NI + NT. Where (X-M) is the trade deficit or the gap between the country’s exports and imports (of goods and services), NI denotes net income, and NT indicates net transfers, of which remittances are a part. Remittances have been a lifesaver for decades, to fill the country’s persistent trade deficit and negative net income due to interest payments on foreign loans. Without this support, the country has to find other means, such as additional foreign borrowings, to fill the gap.
Figure 1, excluding 2021 data, shows that the flow of remittances has reached a tipping point in the mid-2000s and peaked around 2014, growing slowly since the 1990s. After this, it contributed roughly USD 7 billion per year from 2015 to 2020.
Figure 1
The figure also shows (X-M) plus NI and remittances as a percentage of (X-M) plus NI as separate series over the past two decades. One of the notable facts is that with the improved remittances flow, the widening trade deficit plus negative net income has been steadily supported by around 80 percent since 2014. Therefore, the recent remittances drop is a massive blow for the island nation, primarily in balancing its higher imports over exports (financing the deficit in the trade account).
What happened in 2021?
The South Asian region is a good proxy for analysing Sri Lanka’s remittances dynamics in 2021 to determine if this is a regional issue. First and foremost, is the remittances drop a common issue in the region? The answer is not quite so. The World Bank expects the region’s remittances to grow by eight percent in 2021 compared with the previous year, with key players India, Bangladesh and Pakistan earning more than they did in 2020 (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/11/17/remittance-flows-register-robust-7-3-percent-growth-in-2021).
Figure 2
By comparison, Sri Lanka’s most recent remittances dynamics seem quite different from this regional theme. As Figure 2 shows, since May 2021, there has been an apparent divergence from its remittances flows compared with the corresponding periods of the previous years, indicating that remittances have entered a rocky road. Some explanations suggest that the overvalued formal dollar-rupee exchange rate provides remittances with a lower value than the informal channels; hence, remitters use informal channels such as the ‘Hawala’ or ‘Undiyal’ system, which offers them higher rates. (U. Jayasinghe. Reuters. December 6, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/why-does-sri-lanka-want-migrant-workers-remit-funds-via-banking-channels-2021-12-06/). Those systems operate so that when workers hand over dollars to a middleman in their host country, the recipient in their home country can withdraw an equal amount of rupees through another agent. Consequently, this causes those remittances to bypass the formal banking system and be unaccounted for, and perhaps may not even be received in Sri Lanka.
Although this might be one of the reasons, the amount lost through the official channels appears to be greater than what studies reveal; for example, some studies show a three percent decrease from formal channels for a 10 percent rise in black market premium. Suggesting that there could be other reasons, such as official channel users restricting transfers in the belief that the rate differential in parallel markets is an implicit tax on them.
Consequently, it seems there are two tasks to fulfil in order to rectify the remittances flow:
(i) shifting informal channel users back to a formal banking channel
(ii) encouraging those who might have used formal channels and limited remittances to remit more.
The country’s ongoing actions, such as offering greater (premium) exchange rates to remitters and cracking down on illegitimate channels, seem to target shifting informal channel users back to a formal banking channel. However, it is important to remember that whenever there is a higher price for dollars outside the formal system, senders are likely to hunt for loopholes, reducing the effectiveness of the efforts.
As a result, these initiatives should be better paired with strategies that motivate workers themselves to use official channels and send more, rather than making them feel they should accept a lower price for their hard-earned money. To better design these policies, it is imperative to find out what motivates them to send money.
Other factors affecting remittances
Although an altruistic motive could be one reason migrant workers remit money, studies show (for example an Indian study by P. Jijin, et al. Macroeconomic determinants of remittances to India. Econ Change Restruct. [2021]) that it is an investment motive that motivates senders to remit money (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10644-021-09347-3). Investment motive could be more pronounced among seasoned workers willing to shift their savings in bulk for investments or start businesses for the family. These flows are due to their overall confidence in the home country economy and its ease of doing business, including fewer restrictions and regulations imposed on their goals.
Over the past decade, Sri Lanka’s highest percentage increases in remittances, 24 percent and 25 percent occurred respectively in 2010 and 2011, following the boost in confidence in the economy after the end of the country’s 30 year-long civil war in 2009. This shows how these flows are intertwined with better economic outlooks.
This idea is supported by Abbas, Masood, and Sakhawat (2017) in a Pakistani research study spanning from 1972 to 2012, who show that financial and political determinants and variables such as stable macroeconomic conditions influence increased remittance flows (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0161893817300248).
How to best manage remittances flow
Restoring remittances to previous levels is a critical challenge for Sri Lanka since it provides a lifeline to the economy in contrast to high-cost international borrowings. Studies show that, in most countries, the black market and the share of remittances flowing through it tend to feed each other; therefore, policies that bring remittances back to the formal channels would automatically shrink the black market as well.
Rather than predetermining the premium, authorities can identify the sender’s switching point between the informal and formal channels. From this, they can identify the level of relaxation on the exchange rate and the exact premium for remitters for a shorter period, for effective absorption of the parallel markets.
Given the disadvantages of the black market, such as lack of or no legal protection, lack of transparency, and the possibility of scams, there is no need to offer a stark contrast between the two markets to entice people to switch back. But, sufficient incentives need to be offered so that they do not feel they are penalised for using the formal channels.
In addition, since remittances are linked to investment intent, another front should encourage them to send more money home and through formal channels. It is important to build a network and boost their confidence by relaxing restrictions on them, providing investment opportunities and business guides for entrepreneurship, including credit and facilities to import machinery at concessional rates. Providing a robust safety net for their loved ones to help them out during the turbulent times of global economies is also essential. Overall, to help the country smooth out these flows, more diplomacy and a win-win situation for workers abroad seem to be key in harnessing effective outcomes.
Finally, given the procyclicality (tendency to move alongside the economy’s cyclical condition) of remittances, the issue should not be isolated from the rest of the economy. Higher remittances are tied to better home-country economic conditions, so they are linked with policies that promote higher investment and export-led growth with subdued inflation that does not erode home-country investments. In particular, one important requirement is allowing the formal rate to reflect the real situation in the external sector by improving the overall macroeconomic situation with a business-friendly environment and consistent policies. That is the key to perfecting this mission.
(The writer is a PhD candidate attached to Monash University, Australia. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, and he could be reached at charith.gamage@monash.edu)
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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