Who killed the UNP?

By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana

‘RIP, UNP’? When I wrote a piece, under this title, way back in 2013, I was sincerely hoping it would never happen, perhaps, because there was still a trace of UNP DNA running through my veins. After all, my father was the first UNP MP for Matara albeit for only 33 days, elected in March 1960 to the shortest-lived Parliament of Sri Lanka. In fact, the full title of my article was “RIP, UNP? Hope not!” (The Island, 25 November 2013) which I concluded with the following plea:

“A vibrant Opposition is one of the corner stones of Democracy and is badly needed at this juncture, in Sri Lanka. There is no viable alternative to the UNP on the horizon. Hence my plea to all the big-wigs of the UNP. Please forget your petty differences and spend your energies on building the party than fighting each other. There is enough young talent in the party that needs to be nurtured than suppressed! Even if not for the party, you owe it to the country. Rather than RIP, may long live UNP!”

Although the infighting, I referred to was settled temporarily, the UNP was able to come to power in 2015, only though manipulations. Ranil did not want to contest the presidential election, nor did he want Sajith to do so. Instead, he hatched a plot with those with an inborn hatred of Mahinda, and persuaded Maithri to contest against his own boss, Mahinda. The morning after a hopper-dinner with Mahinda, Maithri announced his challenge as ‘the joint candidate’. No doubt external forces were behind these manipulations, as evidenced by US financial reports exposed later. Maithri was ridiculed but contrary to all expectations, he won.

Even in defeat, Mahinda demonstrated his political acumen by handing over the leadership of the SLFP to Maithri but the majority of the SLFP parliamentarians refused to support the Yahapalana government and were forced to function as an ‘orphan’ group. Meanwhile, Yahapalanaya transformed itself to a national government to facilitate a mega-cabinet! It did not take long for Yahapalanaya to be unpopular and to prevent the presentation of the COPE report which confirmed the first Central Bank Bond Scam, too, Parliament was dissolved by Maithri, at the request of Ranil. As the day of the August 2015 election approached, there were signs of an early Mahinda resurgence. To counter this, Maithri declared, openly and repeatedly, that even if the Mahinda faction wins the election, he would not appoint him Prime Minister which enabled a UNP victory. The very same Maithri is now ‘begging’ a portfolio under Mahinda! Perhaps, the hallmark of a successful politician is to be born without the gene for shame!!

Shortly before the presidential election, in November 2019, Ranil agreed, reluctantly, to allow Sajith to contest and must have savoured his bad defeat. Though Sajith withdrew from the lime-light, after this catastrophe, a group led by Mangala, encouraged him to leave the UNP. The continuing battle for the symbol led to Sajith buying a new party and forming SJB. The in-fighting between the UNP and the SJB made the recently concluded election a bit of a farce, as it was a battle for Sirikotha than for government.

The August 2020 election will go down in the annals of history as the most significant election in living memory for many reasons. It was very successfully conducted, during a pandemic raging around the world, and was one of the most peaceful as well. It shocked the winner Pohottuwa, too, as the result far exceeded their expectations. With the support of some allies, they got the two-thirds majority, considered nigh impossible with the proportional system of elections in operation at the moment. Though the total poll was 7% less than in the presidential election, the SLPP polled almost the same number of votes (6.9 million) and won some of the electorates it did not win in the presidential election.

Although it can claim success having won 47 seats as an ‘infant’ party, the SJB success was limited as it could win only one electoral district and polled much less than in the presidential election, getting 2,771,984 whereas Sajith polled 5,564,239 votes in the presidential election. What happened to almost three million votes?

The ignominious defeat the oldest major political party in Sri Lanka, the UNP was the biggest shock this election produced. No political commentator ever predicted this kind catastrophe and even whilst the results were being announced there were unofficial results circulating that Ranil and Ravi duo had won comfortably in the Colombo district. Ranil, who created a record by getting 500,566 preferential votes in the 2015 election, did not get enough votes to get elected. Mahinda broke his record by getting 527,364 preferential votes from Kurunegala, a much smaller district at that.

The final result showed the dismal performance of the UNP which polled less than 250,000 votes island-wide. In its fortress, Colombo, it got only 30,875 votes! The party that got a five-sixth majority, in 1977 under the uncle, has to contend with a single national list seat under the nephew. What ignominy!

There is no doubt whatsoever that Ranil is the giant-killer of the UNP but Sajith, too, should take responsibility for destroying his father’s party. He has done better than his father who tried to divide but gave up. Though the battle-cry during the election was taking over Sirikotha, Sajith seems to have lost interest, though some of his supporters are still keen. In a way this is understandable. Why should he take over a ramshackle outfit when he can build on his own invention? Though he can take a cue from the SLPP, which stands tall in under three years, one wonders whether Sajith has the capabilities of Basil.

Ranil is not the giving-up type and his acolytes have already announced that the UNP would be revamped! Can the UNP rise like a phoenix from the ashes? Though not humiliated in this manner, the UNP has risen from eight seats and nine seats to the seat of power, twice in the past. It is very likely that the staunch UNP supporters resorted to tactical voting, backing Sajith, as a divided vote would have been a greater disaster, and the million-dollar question is whether they would remain with Sajith or return. Perhaps, everything depends on how Sajith performs. If he does well and Rajapaksas fail, he could be the next president! What about the missing three million? Would the revamped UNP be able to get them? We cannot forget Maithri as his behaviour, too, contributed to the demise of the UNP. He is a ‘double-murderer’ as he has almost killed the SLFP as well.

Perhaps, it is Yahapalanaya, that ill-conceived marriage, which ultimately killed the UNP!