Friday 29th March, 2024

The political marriage of convenience between the SLPP and the UNP, two erstwhile sworn enemies, has lasted longer than expected. They have made numerous compromises along the way to prevent their uneasy union from collapsing, but never the twain shall meet on the question of which election is to be held first—presidential or parliamentary. They are pulling in different directions, like a bullock and a water buffalo yoked together, as a local saying goes.

None of the Rajapaksa family members will dare run for President this year for obvious reasons, and the SLPP cannot find an outsider capable of winning the presidency. Fielding a non-family member in the presidential contest is something the Rajapaksas are wary of; such a move will be infra dig for them. If they support President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidature, most of the SLPP parliamentary group members and organisers are likely to defect to the UNP, making their chances of averting an ignominious defeat at the next parliamentary election even more unlikely. It is the party of the winner in the presidential race that will have a better chance of winning the next general election. Hence, the Rajapaksas’ efforts to have a general election held first and obtain as many seats as possible.

The UNP has not regained vitality although its leader, Wickermesinghe, has secured the executive presidency fortuitously. All its candidates including Wickremesinghe were defeated at the last parliamentary polls (2020) and therefore they are not ready to face a general election first. They are riding on the coattails of Wickremesinghe, who hopes to leverage his political leadership for the country’s economic recovery efforts, to win the presidency. If a parliamentary election is held first, their plans will go awry.

SLPP founder Basil Rajapaksa’s attempts to make President Wickremesinghe agree to hold a general election before the next presidential contest have been in vain. However, there is another avenue open for him to achieve his goal. President Wickremesinghe will be left with no alternative but to dissolve Parliament if a majority of the MPs sign a resolution to that effect.

The SLPP, which Basil keeps under his thumb, has a majority in Parliament. Mustering the support of 113 SLPP MPs for dissolving Parliament, however, will not be a walk in the park for him. Some SLPP MPs who are still in the government have switched their allegiances to President Wickremesinghe. Most of the SLPP MPs are not sure of their re-election and therefore do not want a snap general election.

The SLPP and the UNP are at daggers drawn on the election issue, but their differences are not likely to develop into an open clash, which will be detrimental to the interests of both of them. Theirs is a symbiotic relationship. They are like a visually-impaired beggar carrying on his shoulders a fellow mendicant with a severe mobility impairment. The SLPP lacks vision and the UNP is politically crippled. Will they be able to work out a compromise formula over the election-related dispute?

It is difficult to get inside elusive minds. Both Basil and Ranil are given to lateral thinking and never do they hesitate to cut the Gordian knot to safeguard their interests. In an interview with Hiru TV, last week, Basil said something that could be thought to give a clue as to an alternative way out he is contemplating.

When Basil was asked by a Hiru journalist whether he did not think an early general election would clash with the next presidential election, he answered in the negative and added that it was possible even to hold both elections simultaneously. He is au fait with election laws and electoral affairs, and he would not have come out with something like that without reason. So, the question is whether the SLPP is planning to orchestrate circumstances and engineer a situation, where both elections will have to be held at the same time so that it can field a dummy candidate to run for President, and face parliamentary polls before the outcome of the presidential contest is known.