Features
War: The domain of the demonic
by Kumar David
In two previous pieces I have inclined to the view that war in Europe (Ukraine-Russia-NATO) is unlikely. I continue to remain of that view but this article is about what may be the course of events if the entanglement goes the other way (“unlikely” is not the same as impossible).
Let me once again summarise in three sentences why I am inclined to say why this European war is unlikely. Russia has suffered too much catastrophe, devastation and suffering during four wars (1708-09, 1812, 1914-17 and 1941-44) that its people will not accept another security threat; the West, NATO and Ukraine know this and will not push the NATO border to the point of Russian panic. Secondly, Biden and Boris (B&B) are playing an opportunist game for domestic consumption; their approval ratings at home have plummeted and they yearn for distraction, but nevertheless will not overstep, and thirdly Ukraine wants to get out of the trap of big-power pincers. If everyone keeps cool and is careful to step away from the precipice the crisis will be diffused.
The danger is that there is always a possible slip, an overreaction by this party or that. For example, to shore up his macho image Biden is sending up to 8,000 troops to Western Europe and repositioning 2,000 from Germany and Poland to Rumania, uncomfortably close to Russia. One misstep and some Russian General may panic and press the Rumania-target button. Boris went out on a clowning honk to Kiev; did he open his gigantic trap and promise more than he can safely deliver? Will Putin decide to move his strategic arsenal and bombers closer to the border? These are concerns at the military level; the bigger and far more important issues that may reshape the world are possible changes of a political nature.
Western leaders have tasted blood, at least a few drops. They have scored diplomatic victories and for sure would like to build on them. They for certain will harass Putin to push him into diplomatic concessions and domestic loosening up such as releasing locked up opposition leaders and containing his hell-bent mafia of assassins and thugs. At this time of writing Putin is internationally isolated except for China; the UN Security Council vote did not go well (only China provided firm backing). The anti-Russian European consensus is fraying but is still holding, and it does not appear that world opinion elsewhere appreciates the anxieties of the Russian people.
Why not hammer the fellow on all sides for maximum gain, B&B may think. They have to calculate carefully; go too far and the injured bear will strike back. All one hears from the West is about how Putin should do this, not do that and so on, but not one word about what the West will do to alleviate Russia’s legitimate security concerns. Any NATO member can veto an application from a new applicant, but all NATO governments seem to opine that Putin is on the ropes and are in no mood to make concessions. Macron has engaged Putin in five days of gentle pressure, all very friendly, but if instead he simply declared that France would impose a moratorium on new NATO membership for five or ten years, tension would instantly fizzle out.
[Article 10 of the NATO Treaty: The Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area, to accede to this Treaty].
The best way for Putin to undermine the West is by resetting international balances. Sanctions against Russia will prompt him to reconsider what the devil he is doing by approving sanctions on Iran; or for that matter why he is in the pact at all. If Trump can walk out, why not Putin? Mind you he can go further than that. Iran has money, can afford the best Russian technology and would be happy to buy ‘Iron Dome’ protection for its nuclear facilities. What if Iran can make its nuclear sites Israel-style missile proof? There will be a huge shift in the Middle Eastern theatre if Iran has the bomb. And Russia has so far been only a shy supporter of the Syrian regime; if Russia is isolated by the West what is to stop Putin being less shy?
Then there is the China factor. The Taiwan Straits is a tinderbox. China, I think will extract its pound of flesh for the support it’s extending to Russia on Ukraine. Xi Jinping endorsed the Russian position that there should be no more NATO expansion when he met Putin on February 3 at the Winter Olympics opening. The meeting has been described as warm – the bear and the dragon in an intimate embrace! What if Russian support for Taiwan’s reunification were to become more explicit? It is wrong to think that the Russian bear can be cornered, pummelled and bloodied at no cost. It’s going to be more chaotic than that and confrontation will reshape strategic balances in the West and the East.
The Crimean population is 66% Russian, but Khrushchev presented it to Ukraine (then a USSR ‘province’) in February 1954 in a “fit of drunken generosity”. Even in a nightmare nobody imagined then that the Soviet Union would collapse and Ukraine would become an independent country. Even as dignified a critic of Soviet Communism as Alexander Solzhenitsyn says: “How much indignation and horror Russians experienced! Our limp diplomacy betrayed us”. It is relevant to bear this vodka lubricated antecedent in mind; as early as 1992 this illegality was officially denounced by the Supreme Council of Russia.
Khrushchev’s drunken revelry
It is too sickening to speculate what it would be like if war breaks out in an even limited European theatre. The Russians will take Kiev and occupy most of eastern and southern Ukraine within days by moving directly from the east, the north through Belarus and the south from Crimea. The separatists will break out under Russian air-force protection from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Western sanctions will be brushed aside; some kind of military response by NATO will be called for and that could be disastrous! Germany will refuse to get involved but Poland and Rumania may allow the US to use their territory. Will Russia deploy missiles against these bases? Then what? Can anything turn back mounting escalation?
“Russian bombers finally can do what American bombers long have been able to—strike targets on land with precision from hundreds or thousands of miles away. Well beyond the range of enemy air-defences” says Forbes online. Defence requires first-strike victory even on a limited scale; America and Britain are willing to play at a toy war, but real escalation! And what will it cost Russia in men and treasure to hold on to Ukraine?
The road to peace is crystal clear. My theory is that there will be no war because B&B don’t want it, all they want is sabre-rattling to shore up declining domestic popularity. But that cock will not fight for long in the face of mounting escalation. “Why escalate?”, even US Senators are asking: “Why on earth do we want Ukraine in NATO, what does it do for defence of the “Free World”; Ukraine in NATO does damn-all to strengthen European or Western defences. How does membership of faraway Ukraine reshape NATO defences? These are questions that the now jingoistic BBC will not even ask the reams of “expert” commentators it invites on its shows. Europe and America understand that Russia will not allow NATO to creep up to its border; the sabre-ratting is entirely for domestic consumption but things can go wrong. Why play with fire? By far the status quo is the best; let sleeping dogs lie; keep Ukraine out of NATO, but in other matters (economy etc) let it do as it wishes. It’s like keeping Sri Lanka out of all military pacts with the QUAD, China or India. Nonalignment is a policy that has served us well.
Parallels
I have been asked by readers if there is a parallel between Ukraine-Russia and the national question in Sri Lanka. My reply is a firm NO. This island has been populated by forbearers of the modern Tamils and Sinhalese for over two millennia. But in Roman and pre-Roman times, the lands north of the Black and the Caspian Seas (modern Ukraine and the Russian Steppes) were the domain of Iron-Age cultures and war-like nomadic peoples (Scythians, Sarmatians and later the Huns). They left behind no irrigation systems, cities, monuments, edifices or civilisational accoutrements comparable to the Dry Zone, Anuradhapura, the megalithic remains in the Jaffna Peninsula or Tamil-Brahimi inscriptions. Simply put the civilisational story of the Ukraine and Russian Steppes is more recent and less integrated than Lanka’s.
Since Medieval times that region has been a combat zone of changing borders and annexations between Russian Muscovite rulers, Polish and Baltic Kingdoms, the Cossacks and even Sweden and Finland. It has been a chequer-board too complex to explain here. Eastern Ukraine was incorporated into the Russian Empire (Imperial Russia) in about 1780 during the reign of Catherine the Great. Thereafter “Kyiv was a primary Christian centre, attracting pilgrims, and the cradle of many of the Empire’s most important religious figures” – Wikipedia. The Jaffna Kingdom and Yalpanam played no such role in crystallisation of Sinhala ideology. However, from British times there has been a unified market and a moderately integrated via education and employment economy in Ceylon. My conclusion therefore is that both in the historical storyline and in the context of the current stand-off there is little in common between the two cases.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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