War clouds seen as gathering over Taiwan

Some 150 Chinese war planes are said to have violated Taiwan’s airspace over four days in the recent past and the question that is recurring among some Western political observers in particular is whether China is planning a forced annexation of the breakaway territory. In the event of such moves by China, would the West, led by the US, be compelled to intervene militarily in Taiwan to protect the latter physically?

Is a global or even a regional war in the offing in view of these fast-breaking developments? Such are the intensifying fears of concerned sections of the world in relation to Taiwan, which is veritably in the eye of a regional political storm currently.

On the face of it, there seem to be substantial grounds to entertain fears of this kind. Not only are Chinese air incursions a reality but the foremost Western powers seem to be getting their act together to intervene militarily in Taiwan, should the need arise. As this is being written, there are said to be ships of six leading navies off the seas of Japan. This amounts to a display of mainly Western military muscle in the South China Sea against China, besides being a gesture of support for Japan, a staunch Western ally.

In an apparently linked development, members of the Quad group have begun Phase 11 of the Malabar naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal. US chief of naval operations Admiral Michael Gilday was quoted saying that the Malabar exercise could expand to include like-minded partners and allies. He went on to say that the “India-US relationship is central to a peaceful, free and stable Indo-Pacific.” This amounts to a further endorsement of the ally status, India holds for the US in particularly the “Indo-Pacific”, which is an arena where the power struggle between China and India is pronounced.

The immediate backdrop to the seeming Chinese military threat against Taiwan is the celebration of its National Day recently, with a notable display of military might, by Taiwan. This amounted to a strong re-statement by Taiwan of its independence and sovereignty, which was a factor in prompting China to display its air power repeatedly over the island republic.

In her National Day address Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was quoted saying, among other things, that, “Taiwan won’t be forced to bow to China”, besides staunchly defending the country’s “sovereignty and democracy.” Such sentiments are perfectly in keeping with dominant and popular opinion trends in Taiwan which hugely favour the state’s independence and sovereignty. This is clearly opposed to the official Chinese position that Taiwan is a breakaway province of China. It is also at strong variance with the Chinese “One Country, Two Systems” principle.

So, to the question whether there is going to be a regional war over Taiwan, if not a global one. The temptation could be strong to take the view that the US could not be relied upon to stand by Taiwan in consideration of the precedents set by it with regard to Afghanistan and earlier Ukraine, to cite just two examples, where the US veritably walked away from what seemed to be its commitments. But there’s more than meets the eye in Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific, where the stakes for the West are exceptionally high. The issue to weigh is to what degree a military involvement, for instance, in Taiwan would serve the US’ vital foreign policy goals in the Asia-Pacific region, which is turning out to be very much integral to the US’ and the West’s closely watched economic fortunes.

The forming of Quad and AUKUS along with the importance attached by the US and Britain to the nuclear empowerment of Australia seems to indicate that the West would be standing up to China on the issues coming up with regard to Taiwan. If the US withdrew from Afghanistan, seemingly tamely, it is because it needed to focus sharply on ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific region where the economic stakes in particular are notably high for the West. It does not follow from these observations that the West would recklessly risk going to war with China, but it would be deploying all the means at its disposal to impress on China that it would not be standing idly by in the event of a Chinese military strike against Taiwan. That is, the West would be trying out all deterrent measures to discourage China from having its way in Taiwan.

These considerations are not lost on China. Although it has been attacking Taiwan verbally and has displayed its military muscle consistently to the breakaway territory, the indications are strong that the Chinese political leadership is currently softening its policy stance with regard to Taiwan. For example, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quoted recently as saying that his country is for a “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan. This is in contrast to blunt threats of a military nature issued earlier by his administration. One has the proof here that China is far from adopting a cavalier, risk-laden approach to Taiwan.

Why then is China going through the motions of subjugating Taiwan? One reason could lie in President Xi’s need, as some commentators have pointed out, to consolidate his hold on the Chinese people. China is going through a couple of economic debacles at home and a show of military force abroad that stirs nationalistic sentiments could garner for the President badly needed domestic support.

However, the fact should not be lost sight of that Taiwan is prized by the West as well. Given the current global power distribution, it is the South and East China Seas that need particularly close watching. One the one hand, these regions are of tremendous economic and strategic importance to the West, being part of the Asia-Pacific. On the other, Taiwan is an economic power house of the region in its own right. For instance, from the viewpoint of technological prowess it is notable among countries. It has enviable foreign exchange reserves and a thriving stock market, to name just two of its domestic economic strong points. Accordingly, letting go of Taiwan would not prove easy for neither China nor the West.