US-China Cold War intensifies in the wake of Taliban return

The Biden administration has lost no time in sending Vice President Kamala Harris to South East Asia as the Taliban tightens its grip over Afghanistan and China shows every indication of being in a state of readiness to work with the militant organization. These major international ripples from the Taliban return are bound to shape inter-state politics in Asia in the foreseeable future.

From the US point of view, strengthening ties with South East Asia is one of the timeliest diplomatic ripostes it could trigger in the aftermath of the changed regional situation brought about by China’s seemingly commodious accommodation of the Taliban regime. It is China’s hitherto power-consolidation moves in the Asian region and outside that are proving worrisome for the US and containing such spreading power and influence has emerged as a number one foreign policy priority for the super power.

It is in its best interests for the US to strengthen its links with South East Asia given this backdrop, particularly in consideration of the fact that the region is pivotal to the world’s economic growth, and the Harris tour of US allies in South East Asia, such as Singapore, South Korea and Japan, should come as no surprise to the regional politics watcher. Given that China is on a steady course of increasing its influence in the region, the US apparently considers it timely to reassure its allies in South East Asia that maintaining cordial ties with the latter remains one of its priorities.

On the other hand, from the Chinese viewpoint, establishing friendly ties with a Taliban regime in Afghanistan, is the way to go. Since Beijing could not be expected to have democratic scruples and since power and influence consolidation in South West Asia is a top priority for it, accommodating a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is entirely consistent with its regional policy aims. In fact, by being foremost among states to recognize the Taliban regime, China has, from its point of view, scored a major foreign policy victory.

However, the world’s democracies ought to find themselves in a major policy dilemma if they are seriously considering recognizing the Taliban regime. This is because it should be plain to see that the Taliban does not represent the ‘people’ of Afghanistan, since it did not come to power through any processes that are central to the democratic system of government. Needless to say, free and fair elections are at the heart of democracy and adherence by the Taliban thus far to violent change ought to make countries claiming democratic credentials, such as Sri Lanka, to hesitate before extending diplomatic recognition to the militant regime in Afghanistan.

A section of the international community is on record as calling on the Taliban to establish a broad-based, human rights-conscious, inclusive government in Afghanistan, among other conditions, and this requirement ought to be seen as essential and uncompromisable by democratic countries for the extension of recognition by them to the Taliban regime. A mindless scramble to recognize the Taliban regime by countries claiming to be democratic would expose the latter as fake democracies.

However, as the time ticks steadily by for a complete US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, the hope of the humanist is that the US would stay longer and ensure the complete protection and security of the Afghan people before pulling out of the country and abandoning the people to their devices.

Hopefully, the UN and other sections that could be expected to have an abiding interest in Afghanistan would prevail on the relevant domestic and international players to attach top most priority to the wellbeing of the Afghan people. The Taliban, being an armed and hitherto anti-democratic faction of the country’s power elite, cannot be expected to be mindful of the legitimate needs of the people. Ideally, militant groups ought to figure in governance at some time, but they would first need to adhere to democratic principles and respect the rights of the people.

Given this backdrop, it is difficult to conceive the logic, if any, behind Vice President Harris’s description of the decision by the US to pull out of Afghanistan at this juncture as “courageous and right”. She would do well to explain the basis of this comment, which latter could be seen by those with the Afghan people’s interests at heart as outrageous, considering the latter’s continuing agonies.

Meanwhile, the US-China Cold War in our part of the world could only be expected to intensify in the days ahead. Armed confrontations, of course, would be avoided by both parties to the extent possible, but the competition for power and influence between them is bound to escalate on other fronts, such as the diplomatic and the economic. In the former area, China is way ahead, since it has Pakistan and now Afghanistan as firm allies in South Asia. In the latter sphere, it is enjoying considerable economic clout in Sri Lanka, besides Pakistan and Afghanistan, and is forging ahead with its “Belt and Road” mega project throughout Asia and other parts of the world, where strategic investments matter.

Not to be outdone, the US, reports indicated, is an effort currently to establish a digital trade pact between it and a number of South East Asian countries, to firm the economies of the latter and to bolster its economic influence in the region. The pact is expected to cover, among other matters, digital security and the setting up of standards in ‘emerging technologies like AI and blockchains. ‘

The latter initiative is seen as a reaction to China’s ‘Digital Silk Road ‘. However, the US has a tough job on its hands on this front because many countries in South East Asia are already working in concert with China in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, aimed bolstering intra-regional trade.

The US is also resorting to the strategy of playing on South East Asia’s security concerns with regard to China by focusing on territorial issues that have time and again been surfacing in its South East Asian allies’ relations with China. For example, these allies’ tensions in the South China Sea with China over disputed territories are being highlighted by Harris in the course of her current visit to the region.

These developments in US-China relations point to the fact that Realpolitik would be at the fore in international relations in the foreseeable future. Given this steep ascent of power politics, South and South East Asia in particular are likely to prove major arenas of the US-China confrontation, necessitating skilled conflict-resolution diplomacy between them.