Features
Unjustified hype on coming COVID-19 vaccines
by Dr B. J. C. Perera
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician
Many portals of information of various types of media are agog, enthusiastic and terribly excited with the so-called ‘fantastic news’ of the possibility of the arrival of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the disease COVID-19. This little blight of a virus has been responsible for causing a pandemic that has spread through the entire world like an uncontrollable wildfire, practically causing chaos, disorder and bringing untold misery to virtually every nation on our planet. The Homo sapiens have been eagerly waiting and even praying, for something, be it a medicine or a vaccine, which can be used to tame this microorganism. They, the public, are practically wailing for a respite. There is intense expectation that a vaccine, against this bug would be the panacea for all ills of this nasty disease. There are reports of vaccines in the pipeline that are thought to produce intense protection against the disease. If that is the case, it would indeed be like ‘Manna from Heaven’ for suffering humanity.
There is intense expectation among the general public of the entire world and most definitely in the people of this emerald isle as well, that an effective vaccine against COVID-19 is just round the corner and would be available even within one or two months from now. Yet for all that, it is time, and time well spent at that, to somewhat critically examine the realities of the publicity and hype that has been catalysed by these reports. The general populace is of course totally justified in their expectations following these promulgations from a variety of sources. However, is it really the truth and nothing but the truth? Or is it somewhat far from the real and genuine truth?
Many claims have been made, at least by two of the purported manufacturers of vaccines that their trial vaccines are kind of around 95 per cent effective. These claims seem to be based on provisional and interim results of all phases of animal and human
clinical trials, announced grandiosely in the public domain, even before proper completion of Phase 3 Clinical Trials. It is pertinent to remind people that Phase 3 Clinical Trials by sheer definition, should involve tens of thousands of human volunteers. By virtue of the lack of completeness of Phase 3 Clinical Trials, none of these claims have been substantiated through publication in reputed Scientific Journals. That really means that there has not been any intense and rigorous scientific scrutiny and peer-review of the results that have been claimed. What we have today are outwardly impressive and dazzlingly attractive statements made by the manufacturers of these vaccines, whose claims have not been
validated and accepted by a discerning scientific community.
So far, no vaccin e against COVID-19 has been registered under any internationally recognized regulatory authority, or for that matter, even the World Health Organisation (WHO). True enough, the WHO has been examining the feasibility of securing an effective vaccine, its provision to the entire world and the tremendously complicated logistics of its distribution. However, that is really in anticipation of the arrival of a scientifically effective and safe vaccine. It is of course a very wise course of action to follow. If and when such a vaccine arrives, we should not be caught napping.
At least one manufacturer of a vaccine, that has claimed around 95 per cent effectiveness, has suggested that their vaccine would be available for the general public by the first half of 2021, which is just next year and perhaps just a few months from now on. Even then, are we likely to get it in Sri Lanka? Even if we manage to get it, is it for everybody in the country?
It is on record that millions and even billions of doses of the vaccine have already been contracted for and even paid for by some of the countries of the developed Western world. It will probably become a despicable tragedy of vaccine nationalism. ‘I’ and ‘We’ before all others seem to be the buzz phrase. The administration of one notorious leader from a very affluent Western country has compared the global allocation of vaccines against COVID-19 to oxygen masks dropping inside a depressurizing aircraft. They have so pontificated; “You put on your own first, and then we want to help others as quickly as possible”. Incidentally, Sri Lanka has no such contracts with the manufacturers of these vaccines. As these vaccines have not completed safety studies and as no recognized regulatory body has registered them, Sri Lanka is not in a position to make upfront payment and reservations for them either, even if we can garner the money in the face of an economic downfall caused by the virus itself.
At the time of writing of this article in the evening of 23rd November 2020, it was reported in the media that the G-20 Summit declared that their members would take all necessary steps to ensure equal and equitable distribution of a COVID vaccine to all countries of Mother Earth. To some in the know-how, this may definitely appear to be wishful thinking. Some of these very same countries that made this pledge are the same worthies who, not all that long ago and in the face of global shortages, hoarded supplies of respirators, surgical masks, and gloves for their own hospital workers’ use. Overall, more than 70 countries plus the European Union imposed export controls on local supplies of personal protective equipment, ventilators, or medicines during the first four months of the pandemic. That group also includes most of the countries where potential Covid-19 vaccines are likely to be manufactured. In fact it is well recorded that such hoarding of vital equipment, medicines and vaccines is not new. A case in point is that of a vaccine that was developed in just seven months for the 2009 pandemic of the influenza A virus H1N1, also known as swine flu. That contagion killed as many as 284,000 people globally. But wealthy countries bought up virtually all the supplies of the vaccine. After the World Health Organization appealed and intervened, several of these very same countries agreed to share just 10 per cent of their vaccines with poorer countries. However, the caveat of that ‘magnanimous’ gesture was the stipulation that they would do so only after determining that their remaining supplies would be sufficient to meet their domestic needs. As for the future behaviour patterns of these very same countries regarding a COVID vaccine, your guess is as good as mine. If history is anything worthwhile to go by, they would get up to their tricks, once again.
We have an organisation, The Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Forum of Sri Lanka, which was established over a decade ago. Its objectives are to educate healthcare workers and the public regarding vaccines and vaccination and to have a dialogue with the Ministry of Health on vaccine related matters. It consists of, among others, immunologists, microbiologists, paediatricians, community physicians and family physicians, who practice vaccination and/or have an interest in vaccines. In a recent communiqué, published in The Island Newspaper on 24th November 2020, they have decreed that the only way that Sri Lanka would get the COVID vaccine would be through COVAX, the initiative of the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), WHO and others. COVAX pledges to give all low and middle income countries equitable access to vaccines. The vaccines will be made available to priority groups. These include healthcare and social care workers, elderly, and persons with chronic non-communicable diseases. However, the most likely chances are that WHO/COVAX would be able to provide some vaccine doses to Sri Lanka only towards the end of 2021. WHO/COVAX has pledged that they would reserve a supply of vaccines necessary for only about 20% of our total population, and Sri Lanka will have to pay for them. They have also indicated that they do not wish to buy vaccines that exceed a cost of 20 US dollars per dose for any country. Apart from anything else, what the reaction of the general public would be to a scenario where only 20 per cent of the population is provided with a vaccine that is claimed to protect against a potentially fatal infection, is indeed mind-boggling. It would not be a surprise at all if the populace decides to get on to the roads in protest. There might even be combative riots.
In a truly scientific sense, the COVID vaccine research studies that have been carried out so far, apart from the claims of around 95 per cent efficacy, have not given us reliable information as to how long the immunity would last, how it might wane over time, the degree of protection in different age groups, whether yearly vaccination like the influenza vaccine would be necessary, whether the effectiveness would be just to prevent symptomatic disease rather than preventing infection by the virus, the absolutely essential logistics of transport of the vaccines, possibilities of major adverse effects that may come on after a protracted period of time, the manufacturing capabilities of the providers and the actual cost of bulk purchases of these vaccines. These are just a few among several other hitherto unanswered questions. In particular, we have no information about the use of the vaccine together with or without physical distancing, hand washing and mask wearing. Would the usage of even an effective vaccine contribute to our getting on with life as it was in the Pre-COVID era? Would it allow us to abandon all the measures advocated by health professionals as proven preventive strategies? These seem to be queries that need to be addressed most urgently and ever so decisively, well before a vaccine is released for general usage.
We need to face the spectre of stark reality in the face of many unknowns in this novel virus infection. There are many significant questions and very few answers. Real and rigorous scholarly science dictates that these have to be firmly and truthfully dealt with before we can claim that we would be able to defeat this marauding virus by using a vaccine. Scientifically unsubstantiated sensational proclamations that trigger public hysteria and the vision of a bright light at the end of the tunnel, are certainly not of the essence, and are very definitely not in the dominion of the desperate need of the hour.
In such a scenario, the general public should consider these contemplations ever so carefully and, of course, sanity should prevail. For at least the time being, it is vitally essential to implement mechanisms to educate the public on getting vulnerable persons to hospital early for management of complications of COVID-19 and to prevent unnecessary deaths. As so eloquently expounded by The Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Forum of Sri Lanka, it cannot be stressed too strongly that it is absolutely essential and undoubtedly crucial to continue vigorously with the public health recommendations on wearing face masks, physical distancing, hand washing and related mechanisms, which have stood the acid test of time, even from the era of the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There is a recent movement known as ‘BLACK LIVES MATTER’ in the Western world. It has taken those countries by storm to protest against injustices to people whose skin colour is black. The Westerners sometimes label South Asians as ‘Brown Sahibs’ because our skin colour is more akin to brown than to real black. In case there comes a time when this world has a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19, all we can tell the foreign powers who control such a vaccine is that ‘BROWN LIVES MATTER TOO’.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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