Features
Unexplored options to raise revenue
by Neville Ladduwahetty
What Sri Lanka has achieved since it declared itself insolvent is hailed by some with much optimism. The “relative stability” currently experienced is presented by the Governor of the Central Bank “as the outcome of a united effort from the outset” (The Island, December 26, 2023). The focus of that collaborative effort was on monetary policy as stated by the Governor who went on to add, “Now the Central Bank has independence that insulates monetary policy from political interference and thus the institution has been strengthened. The other side of the coin is the government’s fiscal policy. People elect their representative to make fiscal policy to direct the economy…” (Ibid). This separation of responsibilities holds the government and the Parliament collectively responsible for the impact of its fiscal policies on the livelihood of the People through the choices reflected in the 2024 Budget as it has been with previous Budgets.
For instance, the choices made were that expenditure should be Rs.6.98 Trillion and the projected Revenue should be Rs.4.107 Trillion resulting in a deficit of Rs.2.88 Trillion. This in a nutshell was the decision of the Government and that of the majority in Parliament when they passed the Budget. The bulk of the projected Revenue of Rs. 4.107 Trillion reflects an increase of the 2023 Budget by 1.27 Trillion (45%). The taxes that are of relevance to the comments addressed below to meet this increase are those collected from VAT amounting to 720 Billion and only Rs. 50 Billion from personal taxes (Public Finance Data and Analysis).
While the attention and preoccupation of the Central bank and the Government over the last two years was on monetary and fiscal policies, the social impact of the crisis on the People appear to have received less attention, judging from the priorities selected to raise revenues.
SOCIAL IMPACT of CRISIS
The Ceylon Today of December 27, covers a few key features from a report released by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) on December 22. The DCS report stated that ” survey findings indicate that currently 54.9 per cent of households in Sri Lanka are currently indebted,…The highest proportion of indebtedness is from mortgage matters (31 per cent) followed by banks (21.9 per cent) and the money lenders (9.7 per cent) … 91 percent of the households experienced an increase in their total average monthly expenditure, 22 percent of households have got indebted due to the economic crisis, the schooling of 54.9 percent of individuals (aged 3 – 21) was also affected by the economic crisis and 7 per cent of total population changed their health treatment procedures… Among households that reported an increase in their average monthly expenditure, the most commonly reported reason, accounting for 99.1 percent, was the increase in food expenses”.
Continuing the DCS report states: “The primary strategy adopted by the majority (53.2) percent of guardians/parents of school going children affected by the economic crisis was to either reduce their expenditure on new stationery or to completely stop such purchases…as new uniforms…. Additionally, reducing the frequency of attending tuition classes” (Ibid).
RAISING PROJECTED REVENUE
The social background presented above is the context in which projected revenue is to be raised. In addition, “Nearly half of the labour force receives less than Rs. 30,000 monthly salary while 3.91 million families out of 5.8 million families are seeking state assistance to continue their livelihoods” (Daily Morning, December 28, 2023). In short, IF 2/3 of the families are receiving state assistance, they are not in a position to contribute to the projected increase in revenue of Rs. 720 Billion from VAT.
On the other hand, the personal taxes of only Rs. 50 Billion are collected from those who, at a minimum are assured of food security while additional VAT taxes amounting to Rs. 720 Billion, which is 14.4 times personal taxes, have to be collected from a much broader swath of the population, the majority of whom are victims of food security.
This reflects the imbalance in the choices opted for when formulating fiscal policy. Whether this imbalance, particularly in regard to VAT, is the result of preferences of the IMF as a ready means of raising revenue or from sections of society with influence, is not known. Whatever the case may be, IF the economic situation in the country as reflected in the surveys conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics is taken into account with the seriousness it deserves, imposing the burden of the increased VAT on an already beleaguered populace could lead not only to political instability but also the inability to raise the projected contributions from VAT. Furthermore, if the preoccupation of a large section of the population is on survival and other priorities, a drop in demand due to increased hardships is bound to have an impact on inflation.
The potential of these collective consequences could very well outweigh the expectations of improved stability hoped for. On the other hand, it would be prudent to explore options that have not been explored before to raise revenues at a minimum cost to the vulnerable.
EXPLORING OPTIONS to RAISE REVENUES
One area that has not been explored, except for passing reference, is taxes relating to property. The reluctance to do so may be because property taxes impact those who own property. On the other hand, advanced economies use property taxes as the source to fund primary and secondary education and other community-based services. Since such practices do not exist in Sri Lanka, it is imperative that current practices adopted to assess property values are reviewed and drastically revised.
For instance, within the Municipality of Colombo there are properties with a market value of over Rs. 100 Million, yet their annual property taxes are in the range of Rs. 2500 to 3000; not enough to cover the cost of garbage collection. In more exclusive neighborhoods the property taxes are in the range of 0.05 % of their market values even for new high-rise units.
The Colombo Municipality is reported to collect Rs. 5.7 Billion in property taxes. There are 13 other Municipalities in the rest of Sri Lanka. Taking into account that they are not as affluent as Colombo, they could perhaps contribute about Rs. 3.0 Billion each by way of increased property taxes. Thus, if property taxes are significantly increased collectively, the total contribution could be in the range of about Rs. 40 to 45 Billion, which incidentally is close to the Rs. 50 Billion by way of personal income tax figured as contributing to meet the increase in Revenue needed by the 2024 Budget. If increased property taxes at the rate of 1 Billion each from the 37 Urban Councils are added, they too could contribute an additional Rs. 30 to 40 Billion, thus making the total contributions from property taxes significant enough not to be scoffed at.
Over the last two years, Sri Lanka has been actively engaged with the IMF on issues relating to Debt Restructuring. One of the primary issues raised by the IMF is the need to increase Revenues with a view to reducing Budget deficits. Over these two years, the Inland Revenue Department should have been aware that it would be called upon to play a major role in this exercise.
Despite this awareness, the number of files relating to Personal Income Tax increased from 204,467 to 500,196 ONLY “by end November 2023” as admitted by the Commissioner of the IRD at a Presidential Media briefing. The Commissioner had also stated that “it was possible to raise (taxes) to 1,500 billion by widening the tax base and by changing tax rates,” (ECONOMYNEXT, December 29, 2023).
Since this represents a 50% increase over the 2019 tax Revenue, the awareness of such a possibility would have convinced the Government that the policy of raising Revenues from VAT to the extent reflected in the 2024 Budget would amount to an overkill with serious social implications.
The two hundred thousand plus files that had existed throughout 2023 represent ONLY ONE per cent of the population, which according to the UNDP Country Economist, Dr. Gunasekara “owns 31% of the total personal wealth in the country, while the bottom 50% owns less than 4% of the overall wealth in the country” (Daily FT, December 21, 2023).
Had the IRD exercised due diligence over the past years and in particular during the last two years, the country could have secured a significant amount of funds to mitigate not only past Budget deficits, but also the 2024 Budget to the point of reducing the funds needed through VAT, thereby easing the burdens on the “bottom 50%”, most of whom are already victims of poverty.
Another serious omission is the reluctance of the Government and the Central Bank to repeal the existing Exchange Control Act with a view to exercising greater control and jurisdiction over Dollar funds that are involved in foreign transactions. Such a measure has the potential to improve reserves without having to resort to the temptation of more loans that someday have to be restructured and paid back.
CONCLUSION
The primary aim of the Central Bank and the Government appears to have been to please the IMF in order to secure the long-awaited second tranche of the 2.9 Billion loan. The compulsion for this is because continued funding from the IMF would be viewed favourably by the international community to seek further loans.
The hard reality is that all the government can hope for is to explore fresh sources of raising revenues with the view of mitigating the burdens imposed not only on those that contribute to employment but also the vulnerable sectors of society. For instance, manufacturing and other sectors that provide employment have already expressed their deep concerns about the negative impact of raising additional revenue from increased VAT. Furthermore, the situation of the bottom 50% especially regarding food would be more acute than it currently is; a fact that would have a direct bearing on the ability to raise the projected revenues. How their frustrations are going to manifest, particularly in an election year, is not known. What is known to them, however, is the awareness that they ultimately are the victims who end up paying the price for the misguided policies of failed governments and interest groups.
A report in The Daily Morning titled, “South Asia’s food crisis is alarming” states: “Misguided priorities combined with short-term political thinking have made South Asia the epicenter of the world’s food insecure – hunger zone… According to the FAO’s latest report… many struggle to manage two square meals for their family. Clearly, government policies on food accessibility and distribution are not working on the ground. The underlying problem runs deep as 74.1 percent of Indians, 82.8 percent of Pakistanis, 76.4 per cent of Nepalis, 66.1 percent of Bangladeshis and 55.5 percent of Sri Lankans face serious difficulties in managing a healthy meal for their family” (December 29, 2023).
Although Parliament approved the 2024 Budget, it is too early for the populace to experience the full impact of its provisions. Therefore, instead of waiting for the bottom 50% to experience its full impact and face its consequences, it would be more prudent for the Government to explore hitherto unexplored options on lines similar to those presented herein, and take steps to mitigate the severity of the measures and policies in the 2024 Budget so that, they could breathe easier in these grim times and sustain the “relative stability” currently experienced.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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