Features
Ukraine invasion takes a surreal turn
by kumar DaviD
Seven weeks ago Russian troops withdrew from northern Ukraine and the vicinity of Kiev after defeat at the hands of the plucky Ukrainians. There was hope that both sides would press the reset button and, aside from Crimea and the intractable Donbas region (two Russian aligned provinces), a ceasefire may be worked out. Not so. Putin refused to accept the military fiasco; he was not going to see his sloppy, ill-equipped army humiliated.
The sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva whether by Ukrainian missiles or a munitions explosion (if you believe in the tooth-fairy) was humbling. Russia regrouped, fired Generals, modified objectives and struck back.
Crucial battles are raging and though Russia is suffering setbacks (15,000 soldiers killed so far) it is likely to eventually overrun eastern and southern Ukraine. It has taken Mariupol and much of the Black Sea coast. The advance has been painful, bungling, hardware technically defective; cannon fodder for top of the line Western missiles, artillery and drones. Further pummelling of the Russian military will make Putin’s position as
head of state untenable but by taking Mariupol the Russians have scored a psychological victory and freed up forces for the next stage which may swing either way. A BBC analyst gives a bleak for Putin long term assessment:
https://www.bbc.com/news/worldeurope- 61348287
Putin’s (unlikely) best-case outcome is to cut Ukraine (a country of 45 million) in two and take all of the east and south. He would like to carry out regime change, do away with the Zelenskyy government and install a puppet regime for three reasons. First, the West has done its worst with sanctions, there is little more it can threaten. If Putin destroys the cream of the Ukrainian army, he can have the rest of the country for the asking. An anti- Russian provisional government may be formed in exile but how many non- NATO countries will recognise it? Second, isolated, Russia for material reasons (not the strategic or ‘spiritual’ ones I mention later) will find it
advantageous to incorporate Ukraine and expand its economic footprint? The third reason is strategic. Sweden and Finland, alarmed by the invasion have applied to join NATO.
Russia, justifiably is enraged but is powerless to do anything. Finland has a 700km border with Russia. Were they to join the Russian response will be more than moving strategic forces closer to Finland and the three tiny Baltic states. It will need to set up a buffer against NATO members Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. It would like not only to annexe Ukraine and push through regime change but also set up a rump Warsaw Pact
(Russia, Belarus, Eastern-Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) but it is currently unable to do this. I have full-frontal exposure to onesided Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN, Euronews, france-24, DW and Skynews. A new English language channel available 24/7 is China Global Television Network (CGTN) tried to keep a balance between pro-NATO and pro-Moscow views but abandoned this and is no longer distinguishable from Western channels, perhaps subtly signalling a change in Beijing’s attitude. Russia’s RT is of course blocked in the West and even in Hong Kong by “the third party paid service provider”. Free speech! Something different from the bias of Western mainstream media is not easy to find, but such exposure is indispensable. There are links that deride Western bias, for example New Atlas (try it before it is banned in the ‘democracies’). Interesting videos on this site are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=8moZ7S4voe4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=h_JVhaTxC00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=0aCf6pmdY7E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=0aCf6pmdY7E&t=190s
Is Putin guilty of war crimes? Western and even Chinese media report bodies in Butcha and Kharkiv with hands tied behind their backs. Retreating defeated Russians are destroying cities, murdering and raping.
Putin seems to have lost control of his Generals who do not track instructions. One cannot dismiss these allegations any more than doubt mass murder by Serbs in Srebrenica or slaughter of Tamil civilians in “safe” camps by Lankan artillery in the closing stages of the civil war. The demolition of Ukrainian cities is as heinous as the destruction of Iraq by Bush and Blair.
Blair. I must get to back to why the Russian response may develop in dangerous ways. Its foreign ministry declared that if Finland and Sweden join NATO Russia would end the nuclear-free Baltic-Scandinavian region. In my view this is entirely justified; if A and B do what they deem “essential” for their security then C, in turn, must do what it must to ensure its security. Sweden and Finland are making an empty gesture; America and Western Europe will not go to nuclear war, to hell with NATO Article 5, whatever happens to these outposts; NATO’s responses in Ukraine proves this amply. NATO will not risk nuclear war except if the American mainland or the core countries of Western Europe are attacked. I have been wrestling in my mind what the correct standpoint on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be and have factored it into two parts, viz; (a) the Putin-Ukraine dimension and (b) US/NATO vs. Russia/China confrontation. In respect of (a) Putin’s grinding down of a small country is egregious and unforgivable; it’s like the American-British pulverisation of Iraq in 2003. I say this despite my firm view that the creep of US/NATO ever closer to Russia since 1990 poses an existential threat to Russia’s survival. Then is invasion justified? No. Putin could have sorted it out by a mix of threats, strategy and forcing Kiev to promise it would never join NATO which it eventually did half-way through the war. Neo-Nazis massacred Russian speaking Ukrainians from 2014, but correction of this did not require the intensity of Putin’s onslaught.
Putin has another ‘spiritual’ motive. He is deeply a Russian- Orthodox Christian and believes Ukraine and Russia are one indivisible spiritual, cultural and historical whole. (Many Sinhalese too believe that all of Sri Lanka from Dondra to Point Pedro is analogous). The Americans and British, in particular Bush and Blair (B&B), were ‘spiritually’ similar to Putin in their propensity to pulverise Iraq or strangle Libya. The reactions of UN Secretary-
General António Guterres seemed to imply that he had concerns about Putin’s mental rationality; I watched him tour devastated Ukrainian cities. He would be justified in stretching his concerns to B&B. More than Christian disdain of Islam (and other religions, by the way), B&B believed that purportedWestern values (democracy, freedom, First Amendment rights etc.) are magnificent callings matching Putin’s Christian-Orthodox vision of Great Russian revanchism -Putin is not a Marxist. Having said these nasty things about Putin, turning to my point (b) I am entirely against the US/NATO longterm strategy. It is an astonishingly irresponsible step bringing WW3 closer. The objective is to crush Russia, encircle it militarily and push through regime change. What is the purpose of NATO anymore? For defence against whom, invaders from Mars? The West has committed every effort and expense to arm Ukraine and taken upon itself the task of crushing Putin. Biden asked Congress for $40+ billion for the war which it approved with bipartisan glee. The share prices of the five largest nuclear weapons developers on the New York Stock Exchange have risen to an all-time high. NATO is actively engaged in a proxy war with Russia; bigger fireworks may come. So what! The goal is something bigger. The 21st Century is a Thucydides Trap. Economic hegemony this century will demonstrate the hegemony of China-Asia or America-EU. Whichever side you support don’t fool yourself; the trap has been sprung. Russia is small change; the real target is China. The battle royal is the battle for 21st Century Global Economic hegemony. The West’s first step is to smash Putin and his regime and bring Russia into alignment. How else explain over 5,000 sanctions, strangling its economy and freezing its own currency reserves? The West is even engendering food and fuel supplies to poor countries, creating supply chain wreckage and now raising the stark threat of global recession. The prize you see is deemed worth the sacrifice. Putin by his idiocy has made his own shipwreck certain. Russia is now banned from international sports tournaments, art, cultural and music festivals, and can you believe it, international scientific conferences. The pinnacle of insanity is that some journals refuse to accept papers submitted by Russian scholars and scientists; Western ‘Civilisation’ has gone bonkers! This is the biggest global game since WW2. Sanctions madness has turned into clinical insanity. The most significant dimension not receiving much attention is that within 10 years China will have influence over Russia’s vast natural resources and Chinese investments will make inroads as Western companies pull out – whatever happens to Putin. I made this case in my April 3 column Birth of a New World Order. Regime change and bringing Russia into the West’s
sphere will, if successful, reverse my thesis. To date America is the winner and Russia and Putin the big losers – and Ukraine of course. China has gone off the Ukraine War radar; society and economy choke in a bizarre ‘dynamic-zero’ covid mantra of Xi Jinping’s making.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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