Ukraine crisis and Sri Lanka, Security Implications

by Sarala Fernando

Before the present crisis engulfed Ukraine most Sri Lankans would have been hard pressed to find Ukraine on the map despite its huge territory and ancient civilization (603,628 km2 , making it the second largest country in Europe after Russia; the territory of modern Ukraine has been inhabited since 32,000 BC according to internet postings). It was the arrival of Ukrainian tourists as the first post-Covid visitors bringing welcome foreign currency that made the headlines in the Sri Lanka press in 2021, despite some scandal that they had also brought a new Covid strain to Sri Lanka. However today since the invasion of Ukraine, security implications override the economic benefits as thousands of Ukrainian and Russian tourists are stranded in Sri Lanka and unable to use even credit cards as international banks withdraw from dealings with Russia.

Yet, lest we forget, Sri Lanka’s relations with Ukraine go back to the time of the armed conflict when the Sri Lankan Airforce had depended heavily on its four Ukraine built AN32 B aircraft to maintain the lifeline with the Palaly complex as described by Dr Gamini Goonetilleke in his book In the Line of Duty on recollections of treating war casualties and armed forces personnel injured in battles in the north. Initially the four purchased aircraft had even been flown by Ukrainian pilots. As I recall one Ukrainian pilot lost his life in a crash. Just recently the remaining planes were refurbished in Ukraine factories and returned to Sri Lanka .

Most of the analysis in the Sri Lanka press and media has been on the economic impact of the Ukraine crisis, the rising oil prices, impact on our exports of tea and garments, impact on tourism, safe return of stranded Sri Lankans etc. Yet we should take cognizance that Russia’s objectives in the invasion of Ukraine are all security related, from dismembering its territory and altering its recognized borders, to its disarmament and neutrality and probably regime-change viz a puppet government to replace the present President elected by 70% of the popular vote. These demands are contrary to the fundamentals of international law and UN resolutions. Yet what has stirred the world to action to support Ukraine is the courage of ordinary people who are resisting the invasion by the aggressor military superpower. Ukraine’s dream of joining NATO is now probably dead as that security organization has firmly stated its goal is “containment”; it will not intervene and risk a larger European war. Did the West give President Zelensky false hopes of support? Several of the Sri Lankan commentaries underline the “hypocrisy” of the US, charging that the military super power had initiated much worse destructive foreign wars and NATO is also blamed for stretching too far east and ignoring Russian concerns.

Quite frequently these analysis refer to the notion of “Finlandization” and neutrality. Yet the thirst for freedom and the power to decide a state’s own strategic path runs deep. As a young foreign service officer sent to the Sri Lankan embassy in Washington D.C. in the late 1970’s, I remember being puzzled by the single line entries for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the back of the American Diplomatic Directory. Much later, appointed as Sri Lanka’s Ambassador in Sweden covering also the Baltic States, I learned from those leaders how precarious had been their fight for independence from the Soviet Union and how grateful they were for steadfast American support during those long years of suppression. Ukraine’s resistance will reverberate in these states and others freed from the Soviet Union and now within the EU or NATO security umbrella.

Before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Monday, February 21, some amateur analysts were speculating this was just a war of words between the US and Russia. However it seems on this occasion US intelligence has proved “unerringly accurate” on Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine. Moreover, those diplomatic watchers who had learned the lessons of history were worried all along as to Russia’s real intentions, given what had happened in segments of the former republics subsequent to their emergence as independent nations after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Transnistria in Eastern Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Northern Georgia and Artsakh in Southwestern Azerbaijan all have seen the rise of freedom movements among local Russian populations, resulting in these slivers of territory moving to depend on Russia for financial and arms support.

In Ukraine territory, Crimea was annexed by Russia without a shot being fired in 2014 and the adjoining People’s Republic of Donetsk and People’s Republic of Luhansk were recently proclaimed and recognized by Russia. These newly proclaimed Republics are much larger territories than the area controlled by separatists prior to Russia’s invasion . Now it seems now no one knows the size of the eventual territorial grab from present day Ukraine with Russia demanding in addition that Crimea be recognized as an integral part of Russia.

In sum, Russia is proclaiming its sphere of influence and what is happening in Ukraine is significant because for the first time, it is not just parts of territory but the whole of Ukraine which is under military threat by Russia. President Putin has claimed that Russia built Ukraine and therefore has rights of ownership. President Zelensky who was elected by 70% of popular vote by the Ukrainian people may be under threat of life yet continues to lead the unequal fight with courage in the face of a much superior military adversary. It is a lesson that we in Sri Lanka should learn as we grow more closely integrated in the present time of economic crisis with our Big Neighbour on supply of energy, use of Sri Lanka ports and even provision of essential foods and supplies. Will this result one day in a similar claim to what President Putin is now making, that Russia has historical claims, had “built” modern Ukraine and therefore had rights of ownership?

There is much speculation in the press as to why the rest of Western Europe had not immediately come to the assistance of Ukraine. The outward reason given is that Ukraine is not a member of either the EU or NATO. However the real reason may be that over the years, perhaps fooled by the thought that Russia could be persuaded to more liberal views, the era of globalization and economic integration has been proceeding apace such that Europe had become over- dependent on Russia for energy supplies and also for essential minerals. It is said that currently even more energy supplies than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine are being transported to Europe from Russia. However this state of affairs is about to change. Finally, in the face of the resistance by the Ukrainians, the West is acting, with economic sanctions against Russian leaders, Russian banks and significantly for the first time providing direct supplies of arms and missiles, even jets to Ukraine along with humanitarian aid. EU countries are increasing national defence expenditure in recognition that Russia is an aggressor nation and a re-set of European security architecture seems to be looming which may lead finally to that elusive European independent security force which has been pushed by France.

So the big question is whether Russia has miscalculated the costs of the invasion of Ukraine in the mistaken belief that Europe was sunk in apathy and NATO unable to act? The Russian propaganda spin based on unfounded charges of Nazism and genocide leveled against Ukraine’s Jewish President , seemed destined to bring along the Russian public. If however the provocation was aimed at Germany, it has not restrained that European powerhouse which has halted the certification of Nordstream 2 pipeline which would have brought Russian gas direct to Germany. Citing “the new reality” in Europe with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also just announced that Germany is taking the first steps to rearming its military forces with major increases budgeted in national defence spending, overturning its pacifist policies after World War 11.

Germany’s depleted armed forces will receive a €100 billion increase in the defence budget and meet NATO’s spending target of 2two per cent of GDP while Germany will diversify its sources of energy supply. European countries, even the traditionally neutral Scandinavians like Sweden, are taking unprecedented steps in offering to send defensive military supplies, anti tank weapons and missiles to Ukraine. The supply of Stinger missiles to Ukraine brings back memories of the Afghanistan conflict and how Al Quaeda rebels were once trained to push back the superior Russian forces.

Some are asking why Western sanctions have been targeted at President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov and the oligarchs? It is tit for tat, in the same way the Russian leaders have targeted the Ukrainian President, trying to create conditions for regime-change by accusing him of being surrounded by “Nazis”. Finally the West appears to have realized that the real threat lies in the aggressive compulsions of the Russian leadership while the economic sanctions against the Russian banks will contribute to weakening their grip on power.

The larger question that the Ukraine crisis poses for Sri Lanka is whether any assessment has been made of the strategic calculations of our Big Neighbour and who are the backroom planners? For example, Sri Lanka has welcomed Indian politicians into its high circles and honored them at academic and other celebrations, yet how many here will acknowledge that at heart India’s leaders work together in support of what they perceive to be India’s national interests? For example, have we taken cognizance of the ramifications of the legal case one leading Indian politician is taking forward to make the whole of Adam’s Bridge a heritage site of India? If this is agreed in Indian courts, what will be the legal ramifications with regard to those islands on the Sri Lanka side which have come under Sri Lanka sovereignty since the bilateral maritime agreements signed in 1974 and 1976?

Is this astute politician counting on his Sri Lanka friends to leverage this quite blatant threat to Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and control of territory? How many in Sri Lanka have taken account of the chains of small islands around our mainland, an essential part of our territorial integrity and the need to protect these islands rather than to offer them for exploitation and sale to foreigners ? For years we have been unable even to reach understandings with India on the sustainable management of the Palk Straits. Surely, it is in the interests of both countries to ensure for example that bottom trawling does not kill off all the marine life in the Palk Straits and joint measures could be agreed between officials concerned with aquatic resources, on fleet size, volumes of catch, no-fishing during breeding seasons etc.

Between Russia and the former territories of the Soviet Union which are now independent states, there exists a similar situation to South Asia in the spill- over of ethnicities, leaving room for separatist movements to take shape with or without the direct intervention or surreptitious support of the Big Neighbour. Sri Lanka’s Jaffna has old historical roots, a proud independent heritage even before the creation of Tamil Nadu in modern day India. At one time prior to independence, Jaffna intellectuals claimed superiority over Madras although today that might be forgotten as Tamil Nadu emerges as an economic power house in India, attracting the largest portion of foreign investment into that country. A key question now in Sri Lanka is how the North’s relations with the rest of the country will develop in the post-conflict era and whether cooperation or conflict will prevail? Ukraine in the throes of the invasion crisis has appealed to the international courts and the UN and it has asked the EU take the extraordinary step of granting Ukraine emergency membership and protection. Whom will Sri Lanka turn to in the event of a crisis with the Big Neighbour?

However one thing we can be happy about and that is the urban renewal in Jaffna post- conflict, which, showcased along with the natural beauty of its white beaches , mangroves and palmyrah groves, makes it such a welcome place to live in and visit, in stark contrast to the environmental pollution and urban chaos in Chennai. But then, that is what people are lamenting today about Ukraine’s capital – they say that Kiev is a beautiful city – which is being bombed into submission. It seems these matters touching the people are of no consequence in the strategic calculations of the Big Powers. In Ukraine, the people are standing up for their values and freedom to chose their way of life despite the unbelievable cost of resistance in winter conditions, in human lives, displacement and destruction of critical infrastructure and buildings.

Sri Lanka’s official statement expresses deep concern about the recent “escalation of violence” in Ukraine , calling upon all parties concerned to exercise “maximum restraint” and work towards the “immediate cessation of hostilities” and to resolve the crisis through “diplomacy and sincere dialogue.” The Sri Lanka Foreign Secretary has been quoted as saying we want to be “neutral” – however this word has uneasy connotations now as Russia had sought guarantees from Ukraine of “neutrality” and has not hesitated to embark on military invasion for lack of such guarantee. For some of us who remember 1987, the “parippu drop” and subsequent signing of the Sri Lanka- India Accord which paved the way for the arrival of the IPKF, the present crisis in Ukraine recalls the vulnerability of small states situated near Big Powers and the difficulty of pursuing their dreams of independence.

Sri Lanka’s lukewarm diplomatic response today even its abstention in the UNGA resolution condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, is understandable given the island’s current precarious economic situation. Yet how prudent is it to turn to Russia for loans today at a time when Western sanctions have been imposed on Russian banks and we may be targeted as a sanctions-breaker? Our shot-gun reactive diplomacy today is a far cry from the early days when Sri Lanka made a principled stand for Japan (in San Francisco), China (despite US congressional sanctions) and even Vietnam during its war with the US.

(Sarala Fernando, retired from the Foreign Ministry as Additional Secretary and her last Ambassadorial appointment was as Permanent Representative to the UN and International Organizations in Geneva . Her Ph.D was on India-Sri Lanka relations and she writes now on foreign policy, diplomacy and protection of heritage).