Features
The Warming World
by Ifham Nizam
In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP, a renowned climate scientist says.
Prof. Buddhi Marambe, Professor in Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, in an exclusive interview with The Island said that considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.
Excerpts:
Q: Many people in Sri Lanka and in the whole world are worried about recent changes in the environmental temperatures. What exactly is happening?
Prof. Marambe
A: The unbearable heat, uncomfortable days and nights, human-health warnings, El Niño, Climate Change were common and have become the “Talk of the Town” over the past few months. Beyond any reasonable doubt, and with scientific proof, global warming has taken place mainly due to climate change. The long-term change in the average weather patterns have defined the local, regional and global climates, which is a fact and not a myth. The warming trend has taken place for a long time, however, unprecedented release of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), especially through fossil fuel burning and cutting down of forests, has escalated its pace significantly in the past century. In fact, the available records clearly states that the top 10 warmest years were in the 21stCentury and 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded to-date. Climate scientists, after a careful analysis of the warming trends in the first quarter of this year, have already predicted that 2024 would be the warmest year.
Historically, the naturally-occurring GHGs (Carbon Dioxide – CO2; Methane – CH4;and nitrous oxide N2O) have kept the earth’s surface warm enough to ensuring life on earth. However, by the name of development and industrial revolution that took place during 1750-1800 and beyond in the ‘developed countries’, the unprecedented release of GHGs to the atmosphere has made all of us to experience these negative impacts of climate change.
The excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by the human-induced enhanced levels of GHGs has caused the average global temperature to rise continuously. The most important point is that the GHGs are not the culprit, but the human being whose activities have contributed to increase emission of GHGs.
Q: Many are worried about the ozone layer depletion and El Niño. Can you explain these phenomena and let us know the link to climate change?
A: The ozone layer is like a sun-screen for the earth as it protects life by absorbing ultra-violet (UV) radiation from the sun reducing sunburn. There are ozone-depleting substances that can damage the ozone layer, allowing more UV radiation from the sun to pass through and troubling ecosystem health. The synthetic GHGs such as CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons), HCFCs (hydro chlorofluorocarbons), and HFCs (hydro fluorocarbons), per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) are ozone-depleting substances that have added fuel to fire. Of these, the CFCs were widely banned as they are considered as ozone-depleting substances, aggravating the impact of climate change.
El Niño is a natural process that has been happening for centuries. It refers basically to the changes that take place in Pacific Ocean toward South America where the slowing down or change trade winds will increase the sea surface temperature closer to the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. The situation usually brings heavy rainfall towards South America, severe dryness to Australia and mixed reactions to many other parts of the world. Scientists have still failed to identify a strong link between ElNiño and climate. However, El Niño events increases global temperatures thus, aggravating global warming due to climate change. The ElNiño events take place usually once in 2-7 years.
Q: Recently, I have heard scientists speak of an event called Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD). What is it and how it can have an impact on Sri Lanka?
Indian Ocean Dipole Positive Phase (Image courtesy NOAA.Climate.govt)
A: As El Niño events takes place in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD) is a climate pattern that takes place in the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warm waters are pushed to the Western part of the Indian Ocean, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD.
The IOD positive phase has mostly coincided with ElNiño events, and have brought heavy rains to Sri
Lanka during the initial parts of the Mahaseason. This was clearly evident last year (2023), which was an El Niño year with an IOD positive phase that brought in heavy showers to Sri Lanka in the months of October to December. This severely affected the agriculture sector especially in the Central Highlands with prices of vegetable raising to heights that were unaffordable to many. Sri Lankan scientists were able to predict this in July 2023, and informed the relevant policy makers about the impending disaster. However, nothing much could be done as most of such alarms can only be sound with short lead time to the event.
Nevertheless, the government was able to implement to get farming community to start cultivating early in the month of October (especially the paddy farmers), with the onset of rains to conserve water in the reservoirs for its best use during the latter parts of the season and support land preparation during the following season.
Q: What are the economic impacts caused by the ElNiño events and Climate Change?
A: El Niño and La Niña (the opposite of ElNiño) can impact multiple different aspects of the ecosystem and world economy through floods and droughts. Losses are projected to cost trillions of dollars. Scientists have attributed a global loss of USD 2.1 Trillion and USD 3.9 Trillion due to the extreme El Niño events occurred in 1997-98 and 2015-16. Based on scientific estimates, the El Niño events could cause an additional loss of USD 33 Trillion to the global economy during the remainder of the 21stcentury.
As reported by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction in 2019, the climate-induced hazards in Sri Lanka have increased by 22-fold during the last decade compared to that of 1973-1983. This is alarming. Most of these events has coincided with the El Niño events. For example, the damages due to flooding during the period 1990-2018 has been estimated as over USD 2 billion dollars, and half of which has occurred in 2016 where Sri Lanka faced the heavy beating due to El Niño. Following the El Niño event in 2015/2016, Sri Lanka also experienced a La Niña event resulting in the loss of three consecutive cultivating seasons due to lack of rainfall. Consequently, Sri Lanka had to import about 747,000 metric tons of rice to the tune of USD 300 million to feed the population during the latter part of 2017.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in early July 2023, with more than 85% confidence, that El Niño is on the cards. Once effective, the ElNiño events can last for about a year. In 2023, the Department of Meteorology in Sri Lanka attributed the severe drought in July-September experienced in southern region of the country to the El Niño event, and we still feel its impact. Speculations are that another La Niña will follow this year and in such case, we may experience prolonged drought during the mid to latter part of 2024 affecting agriculture and overall livelihood of people of Sri Lanka.
In 2023, the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that Sri Lanka annually spends about 50 billion Sri Lanka Rupees (approx. USD 167 million), on climate-induced post-disaster contingent liabilities, which is around 0.4% of our GDP. Considering the climate impacts, the Climate Prosperity Plan of Sri Lanka launched in 2022 highlighted that the country needs USD 26.53 billion to build climate resilience (approx. USD 75 billion per year) during the period 2022-2030. Further, Sri Lanka has committed to become Carbon Net Zero by 2050 i.e. balancing the whole amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) released and the amount removed from the atmosphere, requiring USD 140 billion to achieve the target with international support.
Q: What efforts have the country made in the policy perspectives to tackle climate change?
A: Sri Lanka has taken many efforts in the policy front to meet the climate challenge. The National Climate Change Policy of 2023 was launched on 2 December in Dubai by His Excellency the President of Sri Lanka at the 28thConference of Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Sri Lanka developed its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of 2021 committing to the global community to reduce GHG emissions by 14.5% by 2030, from that of 2020, in six economic sectors namely, energy, transport, industry, waste forestry and agriculture (including livestock). This voluntary contribution to reduce GHG emissions while being a low emitter (1.03 Mt of CO2 per capita) has been made in two segments, i.e. without (unconditional) and with (conditional) support from developed countries. Sri Lanka has also developed and the NDC Implementation Plan for the period 2021-2030. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) provides the proposed adaptation mechanisms and activities to climate change impacts. These together with the Climate Prosperity Plan of 2022 and the Carbon NetZero 2050 Roadmap and Strategic Plan, provides the required guidance to Sri Lankans to adapt to climate change impacts and also to minimize the contributions made in terms GHG emissions while ensuring sustainable development of the country.
What is required now is the sound implementation structures and mechanisms for the sound plans that are on paper, and commitments of climate-finance and technological interventions with capacity building from development partners and other international agencies to make efforts a ground-reality.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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