Features
The President’s month of reckoning
“I won’t make my speech long. I myself
have stood in the sun like this and said
when will they shut up so we can go back to the classroom.”
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Royal College,
February 22, 2023
“Shut up and sit down! I brought
you into politics.”
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Parliament,
February 23, 2023
The last week of February has turned out to be the busiest for Ranil Wickremesinghe. On Tuesday he defended the government’s immensely unpopular tax policy at a Tax Forum organised by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing. On Wednesday he attended a ceremony at his school, Royal College, with Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, making a historical mountain out of the fact that for the first time in Sri Lanka, the country’s two leading faces were classmates. Then on Wednesday he made his most controversial and startling remarks yet about the Local Government elections, denying that there were moves to delay them on the basis that they had not been officially called in the first place.
These developments strongly suggest that the President is engaging in consolidating all the power he has, and all the power he can get. On more than one occasion he has admitted that he remains, then as now, an unpopular and unelected President, a President lacking a mandate. This has not stopped him from pursuing and implementing one austerity measure after another, and justifying it all with the promise of an IMF bailout in the near-future. With protests and a potential reawakening of the aragalaya looming on the horizon, there is no doubt that he and his cohorts will resort to every trick in the book to reinforce his rule and sabotage the Opposition, draining the latter of any credibility.
The Opposition, for its part, remains as divided and fragmented as ever. The main party, the SJB, seems to have decided to focus its energies on attacking, not the government, but its rival, the left-wing NPP. The NPP is the parliamentary wing of the JVP, a party associated with socialist politics. While the SJB has been indulging in red-baiting vis-à-vis the NPP, the NPP has been anything but coherent in its policy positions: less than a month after an MP stated, in public, that they supported the 13th Amendment, for instance, another party MP declared in a newspaper interview that neither the NPP nor the JVP supported it. This, at a time when the SJB has come out in full support of the Amendment, and the President has in his speeches and declarations promised to implement it.
President Wickremesinghe’s remarks on devolution and power-sharing, which is what the 13th Amendment is all about, have activated a section of civil society, as well as mainstream minority Tamil parties, to lend nominal, if conditional, support to his government. The mainstream Tamil parties, particularly the TNA, have been sending mixed signals about their stance on the President. But the more right-wing parties, including C. V. Wigneswaran’s TNPA, have praised the President’s actions. This has arguably pushed the mainstream to the right, forcing it to make a very difficult choice between opposing an unelected President and supporting his superficially progressive remarks on power-sharing.
Superficial is perhaps too strong a word for these reforms, given that they underlie genuine grievances among the country’s minority Tamils. Yet the President’s attempts to pacify the latter been widely perceived and criticised as window-dressing, as nothing more than an attempt to secure votes at a time when Sinhala nationalist electorates that gave thumping majorities to the ruling party, the SLPP, have shifted to other parties.
According to a recent Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) carried out by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP), the SJB and the NPP are running neck-to-neck and are expected to win a considerable majority at an election. The survey shows that SLPP voters, particularly Sinhala voters, will either defect to the NPP (illustrating very clearly the radicalisation of the middle-classes under this government) or not vote at all (showing their dissatisfaction with politics in general). Against such a backdrop, as Rathindra Kuruwita notes in a recent article to The Diplomat, the President has calculated “that he needs the support of Tamil MPs to be able to govern in the next two years.” In other words, he is trying to compensate for the loss of ethnic majority votes by pandering to ethnic minorities.
On the IMF, too, there are tenuous debates. The SJB and the NPP have both admitted that there is no alternative to a bailout from the organisation. The IMF, however, has not been exact or clear about the timing of the bailout. To pacify people, the government, specifically President Wickremesinghe and MPs like Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe, have in public stated that China is the last and only hurdle in debt restructuring talks. Such remarks belie the magnitude of popular opposition to, and hatred of, the austerity measures that the government has put in place to qualify for the bailout. Not surprisingly, while a number of protesters urged the then administration, led by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, to go to the IMF last year, the current regime’s reckless pursuit of austerity at all costs has alienated even them from the IMF: barring a few Colombo-based elite think-tanks, almost everyone has criticised the Wickremesinghe government’s engagements with the IMF.
Complicating all this last week were revelations by a prominent political analyst about the IMF’s stance on austerity in the country. The analyst made two startling exposes: first, that the IMF had urged the recent electricity tariff hikes as a condition for a bailout; and second, that around this time last year, then Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa had been negotiating a significant loan with the Chinese government. This puts the Central Bank’s decision to default in April 2022, when only debt servicing on USD 78 million was needed to be settled that month and payments for a larger International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of USD one billion were due only in July, and the many projects being signed by the government, on the basis that they will help the country achieve financial stability, under question.
In this context, it’s interesting to note that even Colombo-based think-tanks have begun to disagree significantly with the government’s neoliberal economic policies. Nishan de Mel, Executive Director at Verite Research, has in an interview with a local paper contended that the government is “farming out” the task of policymaking to third-party institutions which are barely cognizant of local realities. De Mel’s point is that such a mechanism will not yield “optimised” solutions. What de Mel left out is that the government’s decision to outsource what it should be doing to institutions which are not accountable to locals points at another, even bigger problem: the widely held perception that the government itself lacks a mandate and is acting as though it does not require accountability for anything.
An even more interesting report, compiled by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a human rights think-tank, shows that among the youth, support for the government’s pro-privatisation agenda is waning. While more than 50% in the survey believe that the State should allow foreign companies to invest in the country and the State should not restrict a person’s earning capacity, well more than 50% believe that government corporations should not be privatised and that they are necessary for the country’s development.
This is at odds with think-tanks, academics, economists, government officials, and even Opposition MPs who argue that State-Owned Enterprises need to be privatised and that they are responsible for the financial crisis. To be sure, a majority in the CPA survey believe that the individual, not the State, should find a job. But an equally strong majority also believe that the State should be spending on welfare. Such responses are paradoxical, and they are an indication of popular perceptions about social welfare and government intervention. Yet they are also at variance with the economic establishment’s views on reform.
It is against these developments that the President is tightening his grip, on the Opposition and on the swelling tide of dissent against his policies. In this he has been helped by the fact that the main Opposition, the SJB, includes several MPs who owe their political careers to him. The point has not escaped the President himself: at parliament last week, he more or less shouted at Opposition parliamentarians to “shut up and sit down”, adding that they were there in parliament because of him. This is hardly the first time that Wickremesinghe has betrayed such paternalistic instincts: an irony, given that in front of the the youth he has tried to exude a more placid image of himself, as his speech at Royal College makes it clear. That said, he has not hesitated to move the law, and if possible the army, against protesting university students, turning the latter into his bête noire.
For all intents and purposes, President Wickremesinghe is skating on thin ice. The President seems to think that the IMF will deliver what the government wants. Colombo’s economic establishment seems to think that the USD 2.9 billion that the government is aiming at will restore investor confidence in the economy. Critics say this is wishful thinking. In any case, March will turn out to be the President’s most eventful month. Students from his school associate the month with the world’s oldest inter school cricket match. They also associate it with what they call “March Madness”: a series of vehicle parades and other events which lead up to that match. For the President and his government, March may also become the month of their reckoning: a fact hardly lost on the regime’s detractors, as they get ready for a spate of protests against a never-ending cascade of austerity measures.
The writer is an international relations analyst, researcher, and columnist who can be reached at udakdev1@gmail.com.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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