Features
The likely Fourth Wave: Impending doom
COVID-19 has had us in its vice-like grip for over a year. It was, and still is, a pandemic that was able to inflict many a telling blow to this resplendent Motherland of ours. We have had violent cluster spread of the disease, and to all intents and purposes, bar the shouting, there is community spread in many areas of the country. We have gone through a recent debilitating ‘lockdown’ from June 2021 with all kinds of restrictions and now the powers-that-be have decided to ease quite a lot of restrictions as of mid-July 2021. The vaccination drive is chugging along at unprecedented levels, with the available vaccines, but adequate tranches of supplies are brought into the country in fits and starts. The country, borders are to be opened, gatherings are to be permitted; albeit with some restrictions, liquor bars and clubs have opened, restaurants are allowed to start serving their customers, many businesses would be functional and limited attendance at social events are to be permitted. There are plans to open schools for the children in the near future, too. All these have been undertaken with the proviso that the populace adheres strictly and scrupulously to the health guidelines of avoiding unnecessary gatherings of people, wearing of protective face-masks, stringent washing of hands and keeping a social distance of over one metre. To all and sundry, a new era is on the horizon.
Yet for all that, there are very many major, quite worrying and real concerns for the medical fraternity. New cases are being detected in significant numbers, every day, and deaths have remained quite recalcitrant. The vast majority of these unfortunate deaths are in the elderly, mostly with other already existent co-morbid diseases. True enough, all these numbers have shown some degree of abatement over the last couple of weeks but not in a way that implies that we could assume a profound status of complacence. The virus has definitely not gone away nor is it even under reasonable control.
The million-dollar question is whether we are likely to suffer a Fourth Wave of the pandemic, particularly by the Delta variant? This latter strain is a particularly horrible and brutal one with markedly increased transmissibility from person-to-person, and a nasty tendency to cause more severe complications of the disease. We have seen, and continue to see, the terrible destruction of lives caused by the Delta strain in neighbouring India. All these things are likely to make us wonder ever so seriously about the real possibility of a Fourth Wave of the pandemic; an unfortunate prophecy of impending doom perhaps? We hope and pray that it would not be so but if it does, it is likely to cause further mayhem in the country. All those gains made over the last couple of months would be washed away, just like an angry, vicious and roaring ocean wave would blow away a carefully crafted sand castle on the beach.
As we see it, the only way out of this veritable quagmire and to escape a Fourth Wave is to employ judicious and rigorous transmission control strategies on the virus. The readers may remember that in my article titled “COVID 19: PERHAPS THE FINAL WARNING FOR SRI LANKANS, published in The Island Newspaper on 24th April 2021, yes APRIL 2021, I wrote “It is our most unfortunate duty to warn the general public of the potential and quite imminent threat of a very nasty third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak over the next three weeks or so and the absolutely essential and indispensable need to take all possible precautions to avoid contracting the disease“.
Much as I dislike it, I am forced to say that I told you so. What started around May 2021 is still continuing, in spite of various restrictive control measures that were supposed to be implemented. The main reason for the continuation is the lukewarm attitude of the general public. Many did not take it seriously and the authorities concerned were somewhat lackadaisical in enforcing the health recommendations. During the lockdown period, although there were no public or private mass transport vehicles, private cars, vans, three-wheelers and two-wheelers were on the roads aplenty, almost like on any other day before the lockdown. The prime reason for the continuation of the spread of the disease was the irresponsible behaviour of the general public.
During the last weekend, when some of the restrictions were relaxed, there were throngs of people going around shopping and all the restaurants were filled to the brim. It was as if a caged set of animals had been set free. All social distancing requirements were mainly observed in the breach. Last Sunday evening, all restaurants, bars and the car parks, most of which were almost empty on a Sunday in the pre-COVID period, were filled to capacity. Total irresponsibility was the name of the game.
To add to all our woes, now there is the daunting challenge of a vision of the Delta variant running riot in Sri Lanka. Currently, even other countries, which had previously managed to successfully mitigate against the ravages of the pandemic have been dealt lethal body blows by the Delta variant. Most countries in Europe are in turmoil at the present time with the unmitigated rollicking spread of this variant. Thailand, Myanmar and Indonesia are seeing a terrible resurgence of the pandemic although they have pretty good records of vaccinations against the virus. Just to put things into a definitive perspective, in Indonesia alone, at least 458 doctors have died of COVID-19 from March 2020 to July 2021, most of them succumbing to the ravages of the virus this year. MARK MY WORDS…, a concerted attack by the Delta variant will finish us off.
There is a traditional, cultural and subservient tendency of our people to ape the West. The media, especially the visual electronic television and social media, show up people in the West, in several countries as well as in some countries in the East, going about without masks, not keeping the proper distance, storming the beaches, crowding up in the restaurants, etc. This is so even when their case numbers are quite significantly high. Their priorities are different. Sometimes, they just do not care a tuppence. What our people do not realise is that in those countries there is a much higher percentage of the populace being vaccinated, there are much better infrastructure amenities to trace contacts and well-organised facilities to look after those affected by the disease. Our vaccination rates do not come anywhere near theirs, at least not as yet. They can do what they like but we do not have to follow them blindly. For our people, most often, what the ‘suddas’ do is Gospel truth. We need to do what is most appropriate for the situation in our country and listen carefully to the advice provided by our own excellent medical authorities, rather than blindly following the intransigent crowds of the West.
It must be stated very clearly and most unambiguously, that it is not at all possible by any stretch of imagination, for the government or the armed forces or the police in Sri Lanka to control this pandemic WITHOUT the intense and dedicated, as well as the unselfish commitment, of the general public. It is ENTIRELY in the hands of all Sri Lankans. We should not put the blame on anybody else but ourselves if the Fourth Wave strikes our country. If such a catastrophe befalls our beloved Sri Lanka, it will simply be due to the very height of irresponsibility on the part of our own people.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) in a recent communique titled ‘Protect yourself and others from COVID-19’ has very clearly issued the following directive:-
“If COVID-19 is spreading in your community, stay safe by taking some simple precautions such as physical distancing, wearing a mask, keeping rooms well ventilated, avoiding crowds, cleaning your hands, and coughing into a bent elbow or tissue. Check local advice where you live and work. Do it all!“