Features
The debate against seeking IMF assistance was always flawed
by Sanjeewa Jayaweera
Despite the country being amid an economic Armageddon, a few individuals from the “old left” are still talking and writing nonsense. Prof. Tissa Vitarana (TV) and Vasudeva Nanayakkara (VN), both MPs, have expressed their vehement opposition to seeking a financial arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is a fact that neither gentleman represents the voice of the people. One is in parliament through the national list because he was otherwise un-electable and the other also needed accomodation from the SLPP to get returned. They should have gracefully retired from parliament long ago and allowed younger politicians to take their positions. I suppose wielding even limited political power is an aphrodisiac for even the most committed socialist!
A few other armchair writers have also expressed their opposition to seeking IMF assistance and critiquing neo-liberal economic theory. However, I am confident that many of them have never owned or managed an enterprise and been responsible for generating employment, managing cash flow, ensuring the sustainability of the business and other challenges that an entrepreneur has to overcome. What is theorized when not in a position of authority versus the realities when in power are poles apart.
Punish the Gang of Four for their mistakes
It is now widely accepted that the former Governors of the Central Bank, Professor W D Lakshman and Nivard Cabraal, and the Treasury Secretary S.R. Attygalle and P B Jayasundara, the Secretary to the President (Gang of Four), are responsible for the economic catastrophe that we are currently enduring. The so-called “homegrown” solution they spoke about never materialized.
Their policy decisions to reduce taxes, print money, and maintain low-interest rates and a forced exchange rate that was unrealistic are now acknowledged by many as the cause of the destruction of the country’s economy and the immense suffering we are undergoing. They steadfastly refused to seek the assistance of the IMF and restructure the foreign currency debt. Those who argued against such policies were ignored and labeled as “doomsday advocates.” The international rating agencies were criticized for downgrading the country’s credit rating. It is unfortunate that Ali Sabry, the current Finance Minister, is only now acknowledging the many mistakes made by the government. A case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.
In my view, the Gang of Four must be charged and prosecuted in a court of law for crimes against humanity. Undoubtedly, they failed as public servants in discharging their fiduciary duties. Unlike our uneducated politicians, they had a formal university/professional education, and as such, their guilt for the mistakes made and for the suffering we are undergoing is inexcusable.
Anura Priyadarshana Yapa, MP, stated in parliament that the decision to float the rupee overnight without having the tools to defend it had been taken unilaterally despite the IMF and other experts insisting that it be done gradually. Whenever there was mention that GOSL was contemplating going to the IMF, Cabraal would issue a Twitter message stating that was not the case. He insisted on paying US $ 500 million of International Sovereign Bonds that matured in January 2022 despite many independent economists and corporate sector leaders saying that the money should be preserved for the people. There needs to be an enquiry as to why the ISBs were settled and why the rupee was floated overnight. In addition, The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka needs to seriously consider debarring the membership of Cabraal for bringing disrepute to the Institute.
Why the President and PM should resign
There is no doubt that the President, Prime Minister, and the Cabinet need to accept full responsibility for the disaster that has befallen the country. Attempting to wash their hands off by stating that the Gang of Four is responsible will not do. Their incompetence and arrogance have resulted in causing so much anguish and suffering to the people. The goodwill and even adulation that existed for the President and the PM for ending the civil war has been replaced with anger and hatred. To believe otherwise would be a monumental mistake.
Many independent experts from inception criticized the decision to ban chemical fertilizers and forewarned the severe consequences. However, their views were ignored and ridiculed. It is not good enough to say, “yes, I agree that I made a mistake”, but “let’s look for the solutions and not who was responsible for the mistakes.”
Many believe that the mistakes made are due to a lack of economic and financial knowledge and incompetence. The need of the hour is to accept responsibility for the errors made and resign so that competent people can take over. Similar to the Gang of Four, politicians too should be subjected to a commission of inquiry and punished for crimes ranging from incompetence to corruption.
Retrenching and re-skilling surplus public sector employees
The debate against seeking IMF assistance in view was always flawed. It is common sense that if your expenses consistently exceed your revenue, you need to reduce the expenditure whether the IMF mandates it or not. When reduced during an economic upheaval, government expenditure is referred to as “austerity”, a dirty word to those on the left. That austerity measures are needed due to reckless spending is conveniently forgotten. Many who have been responsible for managing the bottom line of an enterprise know that if 80 per cent of the revenue is spent on salaries, then there is no other option than going bankrupt unless steps are taken to reduce the expenditure.
In Sri Lanka, we face this predicament because successive governments gave nonexistent government jobs to party supporters and graduates unable or refusing to fit into the private sector. The inducement for seeking a government job ranges from a lifetime non-contributory pension, poor work ethic and lack of accountability for non-performance.
I came across a research document a couple of years back where it was disclosed that there are 320,000 peons and drivers in the public sector accounting for 17 per cent of the workforce. That the peons are non-productive is a fact as maybe most drivers. It is also stated that of the 1.5 million public servants, the country’s requirement is for only 800,000. In all probability, it could be pruned down further if better productivity is achieved. The question is whether the government will continue to employ the surplus workforce or steps taken to retrench and reskill them in the areas that require them.
During my tenure in the private sector, I was involved in both the manufacturing and retail industries, where there was a significant shortage of human resources. Similarly, the construction and garment industries also face a chronic labour shortage. Those who are surplus and are retrenched and reskilled will need to come to terms with a change in work practices. The need to work shifts requires either reporting to work by 7 a.m. or finishing work at 10 p.m. In addition, they will need to work weekends and even public holidays. The question is, how many of our people are prepared to do the hard grind?
There will also be a need for employers to re-look at the wage structure and raise the minimum wages. That there will be no lifetime pension, but only a provident fund contributed by the employer and the employee accumulated during the period of employment will be another discipline that needs to be learnt. That the provident fund collected on retirement needs to be prudently invested and managed will hopefully enhance the financial acumen of the average citizen.
My comments are based on actual experiences during my working career and discussions with others involved in the business. For example, I recall the owner of a construction company who was building a factory lamenting that he had a daily shortfall of about 150 labourers and that many skilled workers such as masons, electricians and plumbers had given up working in the industry to be three-wheeler drivers.
The folly of not pricing at cost
It is only now that the folly of not pricing fuel, electricity, and gas at least at cost is acknowledged by all and sundry. That the country’s long-term economic well-being was subordinated as politicians feared actions to increase prices would result in them losing the next election was lost among the electorate. Despite spiraling world prices, we all got used to driving our vehicles to the petrol stations whenever we wanted and pumped whatever we wanted. Similarly, we were happy and contented that electricity tariffs were not adjusted for eight long years despite the Ceylon Electricity Board losing billions.
When there was a shortfall of hydro and coal power, we expected the government to supply uninterrupted electricity at whatever cost and believed that a surcharge to recover the additional cost should not be implemented. When gas prices soared, we expected the additional cost not to be passed on to us. The rich and the middle class were happy to accept and enjoy lower income tax rates despite knowing that reducing taxes without an appropriate reduction in expenses would result in a financial crisis. Why worry when it is someone else’s problem!
The mistakes made by us, the electorate, over several decades are now truly upon us. The disclosure by the finance minister in his recent parliamentary speech that the country has only about US $ 50 million usable foreign reserves sent shivers down my spine. That we will need to beg and borrow to just survive from all and sundry is indeed a fact. However, I doubt that many still understand how serious is our predicament. That life will get even more unbearable is as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. So to all those who still pontificate that we should not go to the IMF, my message is “just grow up.”
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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