The current state of play

A legend in his time, Galle’s W. Dahanayake who was briefly prime minister after the SWRD Bandaranaike assassination, attributed his unexpected elevation to the prime ministry to “fortuitous circumstances.” Former President Maithripala Sirisena, although he has not chosen to do so to date, can also say that his unexpected ascendancy to the presidential throne in 2015 was the result of similar good fortune. Sirisena, unlike Dahanayake, certainly aspired to the prime ministry during the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime. But he was overlooked despite his seniority in cabinet and parliament plus long years as party secretary. He seemed far from achieving that ambition when an opportunity to run for president, with the backing of the United National Party (UNP), dropped on his lap. Engineered by former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga among others, Sirisena was offered an opportunity fraught with risk. He took the gamble and won a famous victory.

Thus the advent of the Yahapalana government which gave itself a catchy name which was later effectively used by opponents when it proved itself to be an exponent of anything but good governance. Sirisena has now gone on record telling parliament that his government was more sinned against than sinning and it was wrong to blame it for everything that went wrong. At the time of his election he was more than willing to play second fiddle to UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, who thrice sacrificed, if we may use that term, his presidential ambitions in favour of other candidates judged to stand a better chance than he to win the election. Thus it was that then General (now Field Marshal) Sarath Fonseka, the war winning army commander, ran against Mahinda Rajapaksa, the war winning president, in 2010 as a common opposition candidate. Then it was Sirisena’s turn in 2015 as it was calculated that with wholehearted green backing he could bring a UNP plus vote to the ticket. That happened thanks to factors like the support of Ven. Madulwawe Sobhitha’s National Movement for Social Justice, the JVP keeping out of the race and not splitting the anti-Rajapaksa vote, and the backing of minorities often a UNP ally. Finally Wickremesinghe conceded the ticket in 2019 to his deputy, Sajith Premadasa being a non-contestant at three consecutive presidential elections.

Although it was reported in the early days that Sirisena even went far as saying he as president would address Prime Minister Wickremesinghe as “Sir,” he went on to later assert his presidential authority and denied his prime minister earlier carte blanche. Events that followed are well known and require no restatement. They culminated in Sirisena’s October 2018 “coup” when he appointed Mahinda Rajapaksa prime minister while Ranil Wickremesinghe retained a parliamentary majority. Attempts to test that majority were denied and the country had two prime ministers until the Supreme Court determined Sirisena’s act unconstitutional. The uneasy coexistence lasted only till November 2019 when Gotabaya Rajapaksa comfortably won the presidency against Sajith Premadasa to whom Wickremesinghe was compelled to concede the UNP ticket while retaining party leadership. All that is now history with Sirisena, to whom the SLFP leadership was bequeathed by the defeated Mahinda Rajapaksa, back in parliament with a small party group of 14 MPs who ran under the ruling SLPP banner to ensure their election.

Sirisena believes that everything went wrong for the country because J.R. Jayewardene opened the economy. That is a debatable issue. Not everything Yahapalana did was wrong though there was a lot of that, the Central Bank bond scam being arguably the worst. The 19th Amendment to the constitution had much good that could have been retained instead of discarding it altogether. A new constitution is now being drafted, but the country is not privy to what it will contain. The process is not open and transparent such as the Republican constitution adopted by the Sirima Bandaranaike-led United Front government. Whether the right of dual citizen to sit in parliament, was a one-off measure under 20A to enable another Rajapaksa sibling, who didn’t want to emulate his president brother and renounce his US citizenship, to enter the legislature, will remain in the new constitution is yet to be seen. If it is done away with as promised to win over dissident votes for 20A, accommodating a single individual from the ruling family in the incumbent parliament will require much explanation.

As things now stand, it does not seem likely that the SJB and UNP will reunite although that would be best for both parties. The GOP would not have broken in the first instance if Wickremesinghe had conceded the party leadership to Premadasa and retired to an elder statesman role befitting a politician who has been prime minister of this country no less than five times. It also appears unlikely that the SLFP which would probably have done as badly as the UNP at the last election if it did not run under the SLPP banner will want to recreate the blue party of the Bandaranaikes. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, no doubt partly because of Covid, has lost his popularity quicker into his term than any predecessor. But there is no evidence of Rajapaksa opponents grouping to engineer any regime change though last week’s SJB rally against the teeth of government oppression has sent out new signals.