Editorial
The axe falls
The signs have been ominous for the past several weeks and finally the axe has fallen. Plagued by both mismanagement and bad governance by the ruling Rajapaksas, aggravated by an ineffective opposition, the bad news is now very much here and the people have to face the harsh reality. Last week’s sharp devaluation of the rupee against the dollar, long resisted by the Central Bank and its Governor, has been forced upon the Sri Lanka economy and a population that moved from gas queues to milk powder queues and then to long lines to refuel their vehicles interspersed by blackouts and power outages countrywide will, hopefully, be spared such torment in the near term. But at a price and a very heavy price at that, that most people would not be able to afford. But for how long? We can only hope that a benevolent deity will smile down on this tormented land.
The economic indicators are grim. The foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank exceeded its reserve assets by Rs. 662 billion (USD 3.29 bn.) in January this year, up from Rs. 386 billion (USD 1.9 bn.) a month earlier. The situation today must necessarily be worse with the country struggling to repay debt and being compelled to utilize reserves to pay for vital imports. We have been printing money as though there is no tomorrow and this has been going on for a long time. Cash savings of people have been wiped out in value terms in a country that had long been advocating savings as a means of strengthening the economy. Those who held what funds they had in fixed income instruments like fixed deposits have taken a heavy blow while those who invested in real assets like land and property or even a vehicle have been relatively unscathed. However, it is still too early to say whether capital appreciation of real estate in the current scenario will continue as in the past.
Government leaders have been urging patience on a population that is running out of that, or more correctly, already run out of it. No less than the president assured that the power problem will be over by March 5. But that was not to be. Ministers Lokuge and Gammanpila kept making contradictory statement with the ground situation proving Gammanpila right. The Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC), the Indian player in Sri Lanka’s oil import and distribution market, raised prices four times since Dec. 21 last year. The Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) which controls the larger market share did not follow suit though both players have been stridently claiming that they are selling below procurement cost. The obvious result of LIOC fuel, both petrol and diesel, being much more expensive than CPC’s, consumers tanked-up at CPC filling stations unless they were forced to do otherwise. The net result is that already high CPC losses swelled further.
The grim reality is that CPC must raise its prices sooner than later. The government, obviously, is all too aware of the ramifications of a fuel price increase which is all encompassing. Public transport fares must go up; so also the price of produce that must be moved to markets. The implications are far and wide but the evil day will soon be with us. The CPC, initially, would hike prices to be on par with LIOC, and thereafter both companies needing to match their sale prices with the cost of procuring supplies will demand further price increases. These no doubt will be granted. There is a Tamil proverb that the man who is already wet does not feel the rain. People hit with price rises for all essentials, leave apart the few luxuries that makes life tolerant, may (hopefully from the rulers’ viewpoint) like the man who got wet in the rain not feel the effect of this one too badly. We need not labour the fact that the impact of the devaluation will be all pervading.
There have been indication that the hard line resistance towards going to the IMF for assistance is weakening. A structural adjustment facility (SAF) from the Fund in 1978 greatly assisted President J.R. Jayewardene’s big bold stroke of freeing the economy shackled for decades by state controls. There were conditions for that including a sharp depreciation of the rupee from then prevailing exchange rates. Older readers may remember that the National Savings Bank (NSB) at that time paid as much as 22% for one-year fixed deposits. There was a surge in imports and demand pent-up over several years was satisfied. So much so that Mr. Lalith Athulathmudali, then minister of trade and shipping, once declared that people may tolerate high prices up to a point, but never again scarcities. Fifty years later they have been forced to tolerate both.
The IMF has warned that the Central Bank may lose control of money and the economy could implode unless money printing was stopped. There are signs that this advice is now being taken, although late. It said in a statement that Sri Lanka’s public debt, including Central Bank liabilities, has risen to 119 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The bank is yet carrying debts to the tune of USD 1.2 billion to the IMF from previous currency crises. The president will chair an All Party Conference, something it was hitherto reluctant to do, within the next few days. As SJB front-liner Harsha de Silva, a knowledgeable economist recently said, “We’re all in this together.” Now is not the time for the cheap politics that has long plagued this country. The right thing must be done. But do we have the leaders to do it? That is the question.
Saturday 8th June, 2024
It was with shock and dismay that we received the news about death threats to COPF (Committee on Public Finance) Chairman Dr. Harsha de Silva over the ongoing parliamentary probe into the on-arrival visa scam. Dr. de Silva yesterday told Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, in Parliament, that he was facing death threats and intimidation, and it was incumbent upon Parliament to ensure his safety. He stopped short of naming names, but revealed that some ruling party MPs were among those who had ganged up against him. The Speaker only said there had been no complaint, and he would look into the matter.
The SLPP-UNP government has been doing everything in its power to have all parliamentary committees under its thumb. The COPE (Committee on Public Enterprises), which once helped restore public faith in the legislature by exposing state sector corruption, has now become a mere appendage of the incumbent regime, thanks to the appointment of SLPP MP Rohitha Abeygunawardena as its Chairman. The SLPP-UNP combine also tried to oust COPF Chairman Dr. de Silva, but in vain. However, it knows more than one way to shoe a horse.
The COPF, under Dr. de Silva’s chairmanship, has been a thorn in the side of the government, which is struggling to cover up numerous corrupt deals. Dr. de Silva yesterday told Parliament that he found it extremely difficult to function as the COPF head due to severe resource constraints his committee was facing; he himself had to pay the salaries of some of his staff members besides burning the midnight oil.
The sheer workload he had to cope with as the COPF chief had taken its toll on his health, he said, informing the Speaker that he was at the end of his tether, and at times thought of resigning from the COPF. This is exactly what the government wants him to do; resource squeezes and threats are aimed at making him quit.
On 26 May, Dr. de Silva revealed, in an ‘X’ post, that the COPF had uncovered some vital information about the visa scam and it would reveal everything after its final meeting on the issue; the COPF was committed to exposing the truth behind the controversial tender, he added. In an editorial comment on 27 May, we warned him.
While thanking him for his bold stand, we pointed out that by making such a statement, he had thrown caution to the wind, and become a marked target, with the government making an all-out effort to delay the COPF investigation lest the truth should come out much to the detriment of its interests in this election year. Unfortunately, what was feared has come about; Dr. de Silva is complaining of death threats and government moves to strangulate the COPF financially to derail its investigations.
Dr. de Silva’s predicament exemplifies the fate that befalls the few good men and women in Parliament. It is hoped that all those who seek an end to the state sector corruption will rally behind Dr. de Silva, and bring pressure to bear on the government to ensure his safety. Let Dr. de Silva be urged to reveal the names of those who have issued threats, veiled or otherwise, to him and are trying to scuttle the COPF probes.
Friday 7th June, 2024
The SLPP-UNP government is going hell for leather to make bad laws as if there were no tomorrow. It is abusing its parliamentary majority, which has been retained with the help of some crossovers, for that purpose. The Opposition, the media and trade unions are up in arms, and understandably so. The incumbent regime is a dead man walking; it is so desperate that it is capable of anything. Hence the need for it to be restrained.
The Electricity (Amendment) Bill (EAB) plunged Parliament into turmoil yesterday, but the government secured its passage. The Supreme Court (SC) determined the entire EAB inconsistent with the Constitution and recommended changes thereto. After unveiling the Bill, sometime ago, Minister of Power and Energy Kanchana Wijesekera hailed it as an excellent piece of legislation aimed at straightening up the power sector to serve the public interest better.
The SC determination left him with egg on his face. He reminded us of the proverbial curate who, while eating a stale egg, assured his host, a Bishop, that parts of it were excellent. Wijesekera’s egg, as it were, made Parliament stink yesterday, but he sought to please his masters by praising it as a silver bullet.
EAB should have been discarded and a new one drafted in consultation with all stakeholders. But the government is apparently driven by an ulterior motive; its aim is not to serve Sri Lanka’s interests but to look after those of some moneybags.
It is not uncommon for Bills to contain some flaws, which are rectified either before or during the committee stage. But there is something terribly wrong with draft Bills that are full of sections inconsistent with the Constitution. The drafters of EAB have demonstrated their sheer ignorance of the supreme law, and that they are not equal to the task of drafting Bills. If they had read the Constitution at least perfunctorily, they would not have drafted such a bad law.
Ignorant and incompetent, they do not deserve to be paid with public funds and must be sent back to law school. They must be summoned before Parliament and questioned on their serious lapses, which have caused public faith in the national legislature to diminish.
Curiously, the MPs who demand that judges, doctors, Central Bankers, and other public officials be summoned before Parliament have taken badly drafted Bills for granted. The power sector trade unions yesterday alleged that EAB was of Indian origin and geared towards furthering the interests of Adani Group at the expense of Sri Lanka.
Most critics of EAB are agreeable in principle to the need for power sector reforms; the Ceylon Electricity Board should be given a radical shake-up, and transformed into a modern organisation capable of providing a better service at a lower cost. They only asked the government to tread cautiously, consulting all stakeholders and taking action to ensure that the country’s interests prevailed over everything else. But the government was in a mighty hurry to steamroller the Bill through Parliament, making the Opposition ask whether it was doing so at the behest of some external forces involved in controversial power generation deals here.
What is passed by the current Parliament can be either amended or abolished by a future parliament in a constitutionally prescribed manner. But that does not mean that a government is free to pass bad laws, making the country enter into long-term agreements with powerful nations and their investors. It looks as if the SLPP-UNP regime did not care two hoots about the consequences of its actions.
Thursday 6th June, 2024
The outcome of India’s parliamentary election (2024) has led to a ‘perspective ambiguity’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost no time in declaring victory for the BJP-led NDA alliance, which secured 293 seats in the 543-member Parliament, but he must be a worried man. The BJP is short of 32 seats to form a government under its own steam; it has lost 63 seats or about 20% of its parliamentary strength. It had 303 seats in the previous Parliament, and that number has dropped to 240.
Modi has become the second Indian Prime Minister to win a third term. The first PM to do so was Jawaharlal Nehru. But Nehru won an outright majority in Parliament in 1962; Modi has had to depend on smaller parties in his alliance to retain his hold on power. Modi must be reeling from a sharp drop in his victory margin in his own constituency, Varanasi; it has decreased to 152,000 from 480,000 in 2019 whereas Modi’s bete noire, Rahul Gandhi, won Raebareli by a staggering 390,000 votes.
Modi, who reigned supreme with 303 seats in the previous Parliament, is now dependent on parties such as Nitish Kumar’s JD-U and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP to form a government. He has had to lead an alliance of strange bedfellows. Both Kumar and Naidu were bitter critics of Modi. Kumar helped form the oppositional alliance, the INDIA bloc, before switching his allegiance to PM Modi. Naidu also closed ranks with the BJP in the run-up to the election. These politicians have been described as extremely ambitious and highly unpredictable, and whether Modi will be able to manage them and consolidate his grip on the NDA alliance remains to be seen. They will demand plum ministerial posts in return for their support. The TDP is said to be eyeing Transport and Health portfolios! That is the name of the game in coalition politics, where it is not uncommon for the tail to wag the dog, so to speak. These two political leaders are however not the only problem Modi will have to contend with. The next five years will feel like an eternity for PM Modi.
Nothing would have been more shocking for the BJP than its defeat in Uttar Pradesh’s Faizabad constituency, where the Ram Mandir has been built. Modi may have thought he would be able to win the Lok Sabha election hands down after the consecration of that temple, which became a centrepiece of the BJP’s election campaign. The BJP lost that seat to the Samajwadi Party! Modi must be disappointed that the Ram Mandir hype failed to trigger a massive wave of support for his party. This particular defeat signifies a massive setback for the BJP’s ethno-religious agenda.
Modi’s divisive election campaign failed to yield the desired result. The BJP’s failure to secure an outright majority could be attributed to a host of factors, some of them being the suppression of the Opposition, the arrogance of power, chronic unemployment, and the rising cost of living. The BJP also did not care to reimage itself in a positive light to attract the youth.
Modi will hereafter see the Congress-led INDIA bloc with 223 seats, in his rearview mirror. The Congress (99 seats) and its allies have eaten into the BJP support base considerably, but they have a long way to go before being able to capture power.
The bumpy ride ahead for the BJP-led coalition government to be formed may improve the INDIA bloc’s chances of bettering their electoral performance and turning the tables on the BJP and its allies in time to come. Modi will have a lot to worry about in his third term.
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