Terrorism, radicalisation and need for Bread

It should be of considerable interest to commentators on the inter-state politics of South Asia that ‘terrorism’ and radicalization’ should figure prominently among the topics of deliberation of the Colombo Security Conclave; a grouping comprising India, the Maldives, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. The latest round of discussions of the Conclave was held on July 7 in India at the Deputy National Security Adviser level and the current fast-breaking political developments in Sri Lanka enhance the immense relevance of sharply focused regional forums of this kind.

At the time of writing, a state of emergency has been clamped on Sri Lanka by its embattled authorities along with the imposition of a curfew in the country’s vitally important Western Province. A considerable section of the population, particularly Sri Lanka’s youth, has been seething in anger over the past few months over the relentless pauperization of the country, resulting from an inept handling of the country’s economy by the authorities over the past few years. The President and the government ‘must go’ is the rallying call of the discontented population of Sri Lanka, as is known.

It need hardly be said that the crucial needs of the people, such as fuel, medicine and cooking gas, are going unaddressed and it will be only a matter of time before food will be in very short supply in Sri Lanka. The question is raised in some quarters whether the regime would be in a position to pay the July salaries of public servants; so dire is the country’s financial situation.

Accordingly, a ‘perfect storm’ has been in the making and we are at boiling point right now with the youth refusing to back down from their anti-government protests and the authorities flexing their military muscle in reaction. Currently, chronic political and social instability defines Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka’s present parlous situation constitutes an ideal backdrop to a renewed discussion in South Asia on subjects, such as, terrorism and radicalization. It is quite apposite to couple Sri Lanka with Lebanon in any discussion on economic mishandling by governments and their socio-political consequences. However, it is on Myanmar that one must focus to ascertain the weightier consequences the pauperization of a country in South Asia may have for its youth.

Today, sections of Myanmar’s youth are engaged in a guerrilla war with the country’s military, subsequent to the latter forcing the country’s legitimate civilian rulers out of power on February 1, 2021. Following months of street fights between the dissenting youth and the country’s junta, which featured the exercising of brutal force by the military against the rebels, Myanmar’s youth in significant numbers are today in the country’s jungles in guerrilla fatigues, boldly taking on the armed forces in what seems to be a long-drawn war of resistance. The aim is to return Myanmar to democratic, civilian rule.

If one requires to comprehend some of the principal causes that lead to the radicalization of youth, it is to Myanmar that one must turn in contemporary Asia. The closing of opportunities for self-advancement among a country’s youth, leads to frustration and disenchantment among the latter, which in turn escalate into militant opposition to the existing socio-political order. This is a lesson from Myanmar that needs to be learnt by the rest of contemporary South Asia with renewed interest, but Sri Lanka ought to be familiar with these processes at the heart of radicalization.

There was the 30-year war between the Sri Lankan state and the LTTE, for example, which brought to the fore the ill-consequences of governments ignoring the just aspirations of deprived sections of a country’s populace. But in the North-East rebellion, the relevant socio-economic grievances were interpreted by sections of the resistance as deriving from ethnic discrimination.

However, in the current, unprecedented youth revolt in Sri Lanka socio-economic opportunities for collective advancement, irrespective of identity markers, such as religion and ethnicity, come to the fore as the mainsprings of revolt. In other words, it is ‘Bread’ that matters in the main. The prolonged lack of ‘Bread’ could lead to unrelenting rebelliousness and destabilizing conflict. This, Sri Lanka is learning at present.

It is up to the struggling rulers of Sri Lanka to manage the current crisis judiciously and foresightedly and prevent it from degenerating into a wasting civil war. Since ‘Bread’ is the issue in the main, the ruling class is obliged to uproot and eliminate the causes of the conflict. This would involve a fundamental restructuring of the economy and the polity so as to enable every citizen of this country to realize his or her just economic and social aspirations.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s rulers would be erring tragically by branding the dissenting youth as ‘terrorists.’ This is a matter that needs to be addressed by the Colombo Security Conclave as well, if it has not already done so. As pointed out, radicalization occurs when sections of a citizenry see themselves as being deprived of life’s legitimate opportunities. Socio-economic equity is the way out on this score.

However, it is possible that short-sighted regimes in the face of just rebellions by their citizenries, would prefer to manage such crisis by resorting to strong arm tactics or the excessive use of their militaries. It is almost habitual for regimes facing these challenges to brand the dissenters concerned as ‘terrorists’ in proportion to which they are seen as unmanageable. This leads to a complete militarization of the conflict situation which would in turn lead to military excesses by the relevant state security forces. Sri Lanka’s rulers need to be wary of these dangers at present as it has called out its troops.

Currently, although the eyes of the world are on Sri Lanka in view of the magnitude of its crisis, it is no secret that more and more areas of the developing world are on the road to grave crises of the same kind. For instance, UNDP Senior Economist George Gray Molina said recently, among other things: “Official estimates are that about 125 million people have been falling into poverty over about 18 months…what we found right now is that three months of inflation have drawn about 71 million people into poverty.”

Accordingly, regimes would do well to refrain from resorting to military or strong-arm measures to manage rebellions that have their origins in ‘Bread’ related questions. There are simply no military quick-fixes to issues of this kind.