Taliban returns after 20 years in Afghanistan, Government disappears after one year in Sri Lanka

by Rajan Philips

For the Sunday Island family, the virus has taken one of their own. Chief News Editor Suresh Perera passed away last week after falling ill due to Covid-19. I have met Mr. Perera only through emails, but that was enough for me to picture him as a friendly and helpful person, and a disciplined and focused journalist. Qualities that I have since seen validated in the news tributes to his memory by his colleagues. What I did not know was that he was also a gentle giant of a journalist with a six-foot, 100 kilos stature. It did not come as a surprise, however, that he was a popular parliamentary affairs reporter during the 1980s and that he is known for his coverage of the 1988 presidential election. I have been a faithful reader of his frontpage bylines every Sunday, especially those exposing the innards of government ministries and departments. His exposés of the Ministry of Health – its internal bickering and external interferences during the pandemic, were timely and revelatory. Discerning readers would have noticed that Suresh Perera laid bare the threads of chaos that were emerging at the highest government levels in the handling of the pandemic. Now the chaos is everywhere in the government, just as the virus is everywhere in the country.

Return of the Taliban

As news stories go last week belonged to Afghanistan – to the return of the Taliban and the retreat of America after yet another superpower bungling. After 20 years, trillions of dollars, thousands of planes, copters and drones, and tens of thousands of military boots on the ground, the American enterprise in Afghanistan has come down like a house of cards. The returning Taliban forces took barely two weeks to establish their power all over the country. The Afghan armed forces, so called, walked away without resistance and their Commander in Chief, President Ashraf Ghani, fled the country with his family and now seems ready to return for talks.

The reports and images streaming out of Afghanistan show the panic among the supporters of the fallen government. Many of them are storming the airport in Kabul jostling for a seat in any one of the American military planes flying out of Afghanistan. On the other hand, there are also reports that large numbers of Afghans, perhaps the ‘silent majority’ – to borrow Nixon’s crafty phrase during the Vietnam war, seem relieved that power has been transferred without bloodshed and that life can return to a new normal without gun shots in the background.

Outside Afghanistan, there is hyped up speculation about what the Taliban will or will not do in the country now that they are its uncontested rulers. Will they act like grownups now compared to 20 years ago? Not that America was particularly mature 20 years ago. There is too much of manufactured outrage among American media pundits over their government’s botched up exit plan. Too little, on the other hand, is said about what their government has done to the people of Afghanistan over 20 years.

Other governments and leaders are watching the unfolding events in Afghanistan, and are not rushing to recognize or reject the new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the official title of the Taliban administration in Afghanistan. The exceptions are of course the US and its G7 allies, on the one hand, and the troika of Russia, China and Pakistan, on the other. The former propped up the now fallen government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The latter group is working to globally normalize the new Taliban government. In the South Asian regional context, the biggest beneficiary of the change in Afghanistan is Pakistan. The biggest setback will be to the Modi government in India. But even Pakistan is not rushing to formally recognize the Taliban government even though it is only a matter of formality for the Imran Khan government.

So, it is somewhat bemusing to see Sri Lankan leaders, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Mahinda Rajapaksa, rushing to make statements on Afghanistan while other governments are watching and waiting. Ranil Wickremesinghe was the first to go, urging the Sri Lankan government not to recognize the Taliban administration, because under the Taliban, Afghanistan will again become a hub for terror groups, which may lead to terrorism raising its head again in Sri Lanka. This from the gentleman who claimed innocence over Sri Lankan security matters after the 2019 Easter bombings.

The very next day the former PM was contradicted by the current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who “re-affirmed Sri Lanka’s continued support to the people of Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover.” Mr. Rajapaksa also let it be known that he had spoken with, not anyone from the Taliban, but strangely with the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai “to inquire about the ongoing developments unfolding in the war-torn country and further re-affirm Sri Lanka’s support for the Afghans.” Neither statement is going to be noticed by anyone outside Sri Lanka. But we can be curious about who within Sri Lanka will be taking note of either statement. Specifically, which embassy or high commission could be the intended target? Or may have inspired either of the two statements?

In spite of the government

Even as global news was dominated by Afghanistan and the Taliban, there were developments in Sri Lanka for local news. Not surprisingly, almost all of them were about the relentless spread of Covid-19 and responses to it. And responses, not so much by the government, but directly by the people and their public actions – in spite of the government. This is a new and even unprecedented development in Sri Lanka.

Last week I commented on the then anticipated “crucial meeting” on Friday, August 13, between President Rajapaksa and his Task Force on COVID-19. The Friday meeting came and went, and the President was not ready to listen to the Doctors and their calls for lockdowns and other restrictive measures. The President directed his General only to tighten the inter-provincial travel restrictions. As if that will make the virus stay indoors in each province.

Remarkably, however, presidential inaction in spite of pleas by medical professionals, has provoked the people to act on their own behalf and in spite of the government. This development is not only unprecedented, but has also unnerved the government and spontaneously empowered the people. Among the first to go were businesses and retailers who announced the suspension of business and commercial activities in reportedly 31 cities/towns across the country to stem the spread of Covid-19. Lawyers’ Associations in a number of places have also decided to stop attending courts until the spread of Covid-19 is brought under control. Trade unions in the health sector, with support from the National Trade Union Centre, have notified that they will lockdown themselves if the government were to continue to rebuff lockdown calls.

Joining the chorus for lockdown calls, the leaders of ten political parties in the governing SLPP alliance have asked the President in writing to impose a three-week lockdown as a necessary measure to contain the spread of the virus. The leaders have written to the President that “people are living in fear when the country remains open and they are hesitant to move with economic activities.” They have also urged the establishment of “a committee of health and economic experts to provide advice” to the government. Not too subtle a statement on the presidential task forces.

Even the Sangha, the President’s most coveted and revered constituency, is calling upon the President to impose even a limited lockdown. The Maha Nayaka Theras of the Asgiriya and Malwatta Chapters have sent a letter to the President requesting him “to close the country for at least a week to control the rapid spread of COVID-19 virus.” The government’s responses have been haphazard and reactive and not at all bold and decisive. The Ministry of Health issued a new set of health guidelines, most of which the people were beginning to observe on their own anyway. If these guidelines were late and redundant, the President’s mini cabinet shuffle last Monday provided the occasion for some mirth in the middle of a misery.

The shuffle involved a select band of cabinet ministers. Some of them apparently did not know that they were being shuffled till they were summoned for the swearing in. No one lost anything, while a few, or only one, Namal Rajapaksa, gained something, which really was much ado about nothing. A kind of Pareto optimality (increasing the welfare of some without diminishing the welfare of any) in presidential cabinet making. No one could make head or tail of what the shuffle was all about, and editorial writers had a field day after the shuffle in pouring scorn over the whole thing.

Why President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is adamantly opposed to lockdowns has become a national mystery. An SLPP Minister has given a rather lame explanation that the President doesn’t like lockdowns because they will hurt the poor. The truth is timely lockdowns are needed to protect the poor from getting infected. A different explanation going viral on social media is about the President apparently heeding the advice of a lady astrologer named Gnanakka against imposing a lockdown during the Kandy Perahera season. It is extraordinary that in the middle of a global pandemic, anyone would expect that any one country, however blessed, could be exclusively protected by supernatural influences.

The Perahera is now almost over and just like last year, it has been going on without public attendance. Although about 5,600 artistes and 5,500 police officers are said to be involved but apparently contained within a perahera bubble. Why it would have been inauspicious to have lockdowns outside the perahera bubble is a matter for clairvoyants. It may be that after the Day Perahera is over tomorrow, the President may get the blessing to impose a national lockdown.

Whether a lockdown is going to be a week or two late is irrelevant now. At this critical stage no measure is too little, too early, or too late. Every measure counts, but every measure must be based on the considered recommendations of medical professionals. And not on the hocus pocus of a clairvoyant.

The grim reality is that Covid-19 infections and deaths in the country are soaring. The hospitals are overflowing. On Friday morning, Army Commander General Shavendra Silva announced that new Covid-19 patients will have to “register through an SMS system, detailing their ailments to 1904, where, depending on their symptoms they will be divided into either category A, B or C.”

Patients in Category A will be taken by ambulance to hospitals designated for critical patients; those in Category B will be directed to go to other hospitals; and others in Category C with milder symptoms will stay home and undergo home treatment with guidance from GMOA Doctors. What will happen if the number of patients in Category A and Category B starts exceeding the respective hospital capacities?

According to the Daily Mirror, in 24 over 3,000 SMS messages have been received on the 1904 hotline by the National Operations Center for COVID-19 (NOCPCO). The system is not currently open to all districts, and is expected to be opened to all districts early next week. The SMS texts will provide a new measure for Covid-19 infections in the country. Whether that will shed more light on, or add to the confusion over conflicting statistics is a different matter.

The country and the people have more than a sense of what they are in for with Covid-19, and what they can do in their own limited ways to cope with this pandemic. The question is whether the government will catch up with the people and do its mite, or disappear and leave it to the people to look after themselves? That may be what the government has been hoping for as well. What it may not have bargained for is that in looking after themselves the people will also start acting in spite of the government. And it is never too long a distance for any people to go from acting despite their government to acting in defiance of it.