Features
Stochastic and interruptible electricity sources
by Kumar David
As the country moves towards increased generation from renewable sources the public will need to learn a little bit about some peculiar aspects of wind and solar power. I will call them the stochastic (S-word) and the interruptible (I-word) nature of both. They are related but for the engineer the implications are different. The S-word says the wind may blow like crazy all night but come morning it’s becalmed and may not pick up again till god knows when. (“The wind bloweth where it listeth, but thou canst not tell whence it cometh and whither it goeth”: John 3.8). More troublesome is the I-word, quick and intermittent fluctuations between furious force and stately calm. The chaps in the Control Room tear their hair out when a large quantum of wind power freaks out suddenly. Imagine if one Vitoria-equivalent of wind power splutters on and off like a car with a petrol block. I will explain how the control people deal with it.
Similar things happen with solar; it’s a beautiful sunny day but quickly darkens with rain. It’s clear morning but clouds drift across and cut the insolation on the panels. Oh hell!
Shall I compare thee to a summer’s day?
Thou art more lovely and more temperate:
Fresh winds do shake the darling buds of May,
And summer’s lease has all too short a date:
And often is his gold complexion dimm’d;
By chance, or nature’s changing course untrimmed:
Lines from Sonnet XVIII
The S-word (stochastic is a fancy way to say probabilistic) is used to emphasise the headaches of the planner not the operator. Planners don’t tear their hair in panic as operators do, they go bald slowly; Buddhika’s hairless pate shimmers like a polished egg. Look at it in a simple way. Say we have two 100 MW wind farms, one in Mannar, the other Pooneryn. Take Mannar first: Full power output is 100 MW when wind blows with force. Say the mean is 60, hence between zero and 100 it is distributed with a probability like a bell-shaped curve with a peak at 60 and cuts off completely at 100. Pooneryn will be similar but here’s the jinx. The two may not be correlated (occur simultaneously) or only partly correlated. As the apostle John perceptively pointed out, the wind listeth as it wishes.
Northern Territory; expected to yield over 20 TWh
Planner have a good idea how much energy to expect each year from each farm but cannot hope for a steady 120 MW all the time. True they mostly think of the energy availability per annum but they must also tell management to give operators the right tools at each location to ride over severe fluctuations. If there are a large number of wind-farms distributed across the island, planners can estimate how much energy to expect each year or season, but riding through large fluctuations is a different story. I worked on this topic 40 years ago but those braincells are all dead. But don’t panic, there are bright young lads and lasses in CEB planning who know how to tackle these ambiguities.
Operational concerns – the I-word – seem to agitate the CEB these days as more wind farms are slated to come on grid in the next three or four decades (unless the economic debacle of a penniless government shrivels up money for food, medicine, electrification and renewables). The wind that shakes the darling buds of May, and the lovely sun of a summer’s day, are as fickle as my lady’s changing countenance untrimmed. Imagine you are the control engineer leaning back in your dispatcher’s chair sipping your well-earned morning coffee after a busy night reading Tom Mix comic books. You are gloating over 600 MW of wind and solar that you are dispatching, and then the gods strike! A large part of it goes up in metaphorical smoke at a moment’s notice. If wind or solar output fall quickly by a hefty amount, it is the same as the forced outage of a big unit like Victoria or Norochcholai and the shock to the system is similar.
Germany suffers horrendous outages of power whenever the wind gods go on a lightning strike (no pun intended) and the system not only in Germany but throughout the interconnected Northern European grid experiences severe stability problems. Now wind farms are being shredded; see for example:
1. “Thousands of wind turbines in Germany will be shredded next year”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr5PEAK1t3U/
2. “Germans fall out of love with wind power” – Financial Times (UK)
https://www.ft.com/content/d8b9b0bc-04a6-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd
3. “The growing mismatch between Germany’s renewables capacity and the strength of its electricity network is leading to curtailment, crazy pricing and challenges for neighbouring nations” greentechmedia.com
Yes of course wind and solar dispatch in the CEB system will never rise to 27% of total capacity as in Germany but the concern does highlight something important. Even if these plants are only 10% to 15% of the total system, operators must be provided with tools to cope with the large swings endemic to I-word generators. I try to make my stuff intelligible to lay readers but am unfairly accused of spewing technical gobbledegook all over. Let me try to simplify how to cope with I-word fluctuations. The response has to be fast, as fast as the wind shakes the darling buds of May. One must act in seconds; firing up gas-turbines or synchronising fast-hydro is not workable, it’s too slow. Two available approaches are a huge amount of excess inertia spinning on the system all the time or massive stand-by battery capacity.
If when driving a heavily laden truck you suffer intermittent petrol blocks, the truck may stutter but it will ride through and keep going thanks to the momentum. In the electricity system it could be heavy generator-rotors delivering little power but spinning along just for a honk. Excess rotating inertia smooths out fluctuations in frequency (comparable to the speed of the truck). There’s a limit to this game; then the fall back is gigantic batteries, fast electronics and inverters (converting battery DC to system AC) when big frequency drops are sensed. This is similar to the uninterrupted power supply (UPS) that backs up a computer when the mains is truant. The problem of course is that a 100 MW UPS needs a battery stack as big as a warehouse and the price tag reaches millions of dollars; comparatively the control-electronics and inverter cost peanuts. If you ever get rich enough to afford a Tesla imagine buying batteries equivalent to those in 1000 Tesla cars to hold hands with a 100 MW wind farm! That’s big money and foreign exchange at that, sitting on the reserve bench just in case one of the eleven blokes on the field breaks a leg. Capital costing of wind power must include the price tag of this ancillary stuff.
I have devoted the column thus far to the stochastic and interruptible nature of wind and solar power. Let me sign off with a few comments on energy; the 70% renewable-source electricity by 2030 fairy story. The economy shrank by 3.6% in 2020 and will do worse in2021; growth will not resume in 2022. The economic meltdown and Foodless Emergency will have knock-on consequences, and electricity growth will decline to below 5%. The government has no dollars to sanction import of food and medicines, so forget about funding big RE expansion! Economy, industry and energy growth may all go belly-up if things go on like this.
The CEB recently said it will need only 28TWh in 2030; seventy percent of this is 19.6TWh. Let me stay with this for the purposes of this column. Major hydro now gives us 3.9TWh but we have pretty much used up all these resources. To round things off let’s say major-hydro can be pushed up to 4.6 TWh by 2030. Wind, solar and mini-hydro will then have to chip in an additional 15 TWh the other half from wind. Speculate then that the prodigies crowding round President Gotabaya expect 7.5 TWh of this to shine from solar. Then these wonks must envision a 10,000-acre Vista of land, replete with say 3.75 GW (3750 MW) of installed solar Splendour. I am rubbing my eyes! And for wind power, I see the Viyathmaga Sancho Panzas advising his Excellency Don Quixote, tilting at windmills.
[In the best locations, a one GW solar array may yield up to 3000 GWh (3 TWh) annually and needs about 3000 acres. Downgrade energy production by a factor of 1.5 and you will get my 3.75 GW RE installed capacity estimate – you can change the derating factor and recalculate. Mother Lanka is blessed with so much rainfall, so many overcast days and such ample passing cloud that “summer’s lease has all too short a day” unlike Atacama, Gobi, Rajasthan or the Australian outback which are pristine for the solar engineer].
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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