Sri Lanka still at start of Delta variant spread

Experts insist on decisive action now to halt it in its track

By Rathindra Kuruwita

Sri Lanka was still at the early stages of the COVID wave created by the Delta variant and it had not spread to most parts of the country, Dr. Chandima Jeewandara of the Allergy, Immunology and Cell Biology Unit, Department of Immunology Molecular and Molecular Medicine of the University of Sri Jayewardenepura said yesterday.

He urged the government to take immediate action before the variant spread to other parts of the country.

“We found the Delta community spread in early June and by the end of July Delta is the most dominant variant in Colombo. Around 90% of the cases reported in Colombo are those with Delta variants. I think there are is a significant number of cases in Gampaha and in the South, but it has not spread elsewhere. For example, almost 100% the cases in

Nuwara Eliya are still the Alpha or UK variants,” he said.

Dr. Jeewandara said that the Delta variant was twice as communicable as the variant detected in Wuhan and that therefore a rapid and significant rise in cases could be seen. He said that following health guidelines like washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing were important.

“However, even if we do all this, Delta will use the slightest opportunity and infect us. Five seconds without the mask is enough for the virus to enter the body. We have to take immediate steps. We have to stop this before it spreads to other districts,” he said.

Prof. Suneth Agampodi, Founder Professor and Chair – Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Allied Sciences, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka, urged the government to impose a lockdown immediately.

“Doctors can save lives, but one policy decision can save more lives than all of us medical professionals combined. I implore the government to listen to professionals,” he said.

Prof. Agampodi also said Sri Lanka was at the beginning of the spread of the Delta variant and that it would take five to six weeks for the infections to peak. Commenting on the predictions on Sri Lanka made by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent global health research center at the University of Washington; Prof. Agampodi said that IHME data was highly respected around the world.

 “In May, IHME predicted that there could be 200 to 300 deaths a day in Sri Lanka. The IHME model is reliable. What people need to understand is that the predictions are based on trends at the moment data is entered into the model. However, as people and governments react things change. In May, we took the IHME data, and we used the data into a model we created. We predicted that there will be 47 to 57 deaths a day because of how we will react, and our numbers came true,” he said.

Prof. Agampodi said that at the start of August, they predicted that between 100 and 150 people would die a day due to COVID-19 and now our worst-case scenario was 600 deaths a day. While there would not be 600 deaths a day, Sri Lanka couldn’t stop the number hitting 200, he said.

“The reported deaths are about 120 a day now and if we don’t do anything, we will be seeing 300 deaths a day. If we take immediate action, we can stop the deaths in the 200 – 250 range,” he said.

Prof. Agampodi said that with the Delta variant, everyone in a household will contract the virus, if one person contracted it, and if the government waited a few more days the virus would spread exponentially.

“This is why we must act now. The way things are now one person can spread to four people. Also if there are 100 cases today, there will be 400 tomorrow,” he said.