Sri Lanka – Current Political Situation

Foreign Policy and Strategic Affairs

This is a research paper
published by the
New Delhi-based think-tank the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF)

The two Rajapaksa administrations (MR/2010-15) and (GR/2019-22) and the flip-flop during the Sirisena administration (2015-19) are infamous for the manner in which Sri Lanka’s strategic and foreign policy was conducted. This was the period when China considerably strengthened its hold on Sri Lanka at the cost of Sri Lanka’s traditional allies including India.

PRW dwelt on this aspect in his Throne Speech (Aug 03) blaming the downturn in his country’s external relations “due to instability of the foreign policy, we faced many setbacks in in the international arena” and “we don’t belong to any group”. He promised to follow “a friendly” and “purposeful” foreign policy.

The failure of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy has impacted its Diaspora considerably. Sri Lanka’s passport is placed below nations like Sudan and greater visa restrictions are placed on them. PRW therefore has a major task ahead to restore balance to foreign affairs and international relations. Even more he has to devise ways and means to energise the foreign office and its foreign service.

Relations with India

Though tested at frequent intervals, India-Lanka relations rest on strong foundations and have grown in stature thanks to high level political interaction and leadership intervention at all times. The trust deficit that presided over the bilateral relations particularly since 2009 has receded but it remains a source of worry for Indian foreign policy managers. The meeting between Indian and Sri Lankan leaders at upcoming Tokyo event must provide the solution to addressing the deficit trust.

India’s immediate response to the economic crisis by providing rescue, relief and humanitarian assistance amounting to over USD 4 billion is internationally acclaimed and received kudos in Sri Lanka from civil society and others. This is one of the several major initiatives of India in recent years to help Sri Lanka. It was in sync with the policy of the Union government to provide assistance to the people of Sri Lanka. However, there was the usual baggage of anti-India statements by vested interests who have made India their constituency to stay relevant in national affairs.

India-Lanka relations have been seen through a narrow prism. The need to identify fault lines and distrust in bilateral relations is urgent and important. There are several options to consider. One way forward is to focus attention on southern Sri Lanka and along the west coast that have remained bastion of Sinhala-Buddhist society. This is the heartland that decides major issues binding the parties in power to making decisions often not commensurate with contemporary developments.

The opposition to India’s participation in the West Coast Terminal project is one such example and there are others too. It is not difficult to identify the vested interests here. These have cast deepening shadow on India-Lanka relations. Policy makers on both sides have an arduous task ahead to try and remove the irritants.

The CPA opinion poll has some interesting revelations especially about the JVP. The Inter University Students Front (IUSF) and Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) are of interest and may have the potential to influence people against India. The “united” JVP in the past had a clear anti-India agenda besides identified as pro-Beijing. The presence of several parliamentarians from JVP to welcome the Chinese “spy” ship at Hambantota on Aug 16, 2022 is another example.

That Hambantota is an irritant in India-Lanka relations is to state the obvious. The recent visit of Yuan Wan-5 has proved it beyond doubt and also exposed the limitations of Sri Lanka’s strategic thinking on such critical issues. This may be beginning of a new challenge to both India and Sri Lanka as more such visits will take place in future. This fault line has to be addressed by both sides. Obviously, there are lessons to be learnt here especially for Sri Lanka policy makers.

The need for a detailed White paper on India-Sri Lanka relations has become necessary with the objective to bring balance to it and highlight India’s contributions. There is not much that is written on India’s role along with Norway in brokering the cease fire between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE); India’s insistence of creating the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) to monitor the cease-fire, the activities of two Indian Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in Humanitarian Demining efforts in Vavuniya and Mannar and India’s role in Tsunami relief. The list is endless.

Another exercise is to study of Chinese activities in Sri Lanka in past 7 decades particularly in the 21st century. This will be an important strategy paper which should serve as institutional memory and a ready reckoner for present and future policy makers, opinion makers and practitioners.

China did not shed a tear for GR when he lost political office. The lesson here is that China has its national security interests as foremost in all its transactions and nothing else matters.

An article by Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka (Aug 26, 2022) circulated to the media said that “Sri Lanka and China should jointly protect their sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence in view of threats they face”. It was built around visit of US delegation led by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and visit of Yuan Wan 5 to Hambantota. It said “Just like Sri Lanka, China had suffered a hundred years from 1840 till 1949. Because of similar dark experience, China has always been supporting Sri Lanka”. Letter made no attempt to disguise criticism of India and went on to draw attention to the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council next month and “whether they use human rights as a cover up tool to interfere in the Island nation’s internal affairs and continue to rub salt into the wounds of Sri Lankan people”.

For a country like China to abandon Sri Lanka when it needed assistance to overcome its severe economic crisis, the article by the Chinese Ambassador is like “rubbing salt into the wounds of the Sri Lankan people”.

(The Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) is a New Delhi-based think tank set up with the collaborative efforts of India’s leading security experts, diplomats and philanthropists under the aegis of the Vivekananda Kendra. The VIF’s objective is to become a centre of excellence to kick start innovative ideas and thoughts that can lead to a stronger, secure and prosperous India playing its destined role in global affairs.)

Web Link https://www.vifindia.org/august/29/2022/sri-lanka-current-political-situation