Some early musings on presidential election

By an apolitical aficionado

Things are beginning to hot up and even persistently simmer quite a bit ahead of the presidential election to be held in a few months. Multiple parties and candidates are vying for power, each of them holds out its promises, challenges, and visions for the future. Some of these were graphically articulated at the May Day processions, meetings and rallies of just a few days ago. All and sundry from different pollical hues, affiliations and governing principles have hastened to claim that each is God’s personal gift to Sri Lanka. It is perhaps time to have an early look at the current status of the panning situation which seems to be in a constant state of flux, look at the relative chances of the key contenders, and assess their strengths and weaknesses in the eyes of the electorate.

The United National Party (UNP), under the leadership of the current President of the country, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has been credited with steering Sri Lanka out of an economic morass. At least on that score, he has a point. On May Day, he invited all Opposition parties to co-operate him to put the economy on an even keel Some of the minions of these parties may do the high jump but it is most unlikely that the upper echelons of the parties would join Ranil. Apart from all that, criticisms have been levelled against Wickremasinghe for his autocratic leadership style and even generally perceived disregard for expert advice. While his economic policies may have brought short-term relief, concerns linger about the long-term implications of consolidating power under his leadership and the impact his radical policies would have on the nation. Most unfortunately, the draconian measures, including drastic taxes, that had to be implemented have fanned the ire of the general public. He has generally been prone to giving in to certain forces that have the potential to scuttle his ship, lest they take the law into their own hands. How the electorate would look at the prospect of handing over the country to Ranil for another five years; your guess is as good as mine.

Sajith Premadasa, leading the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), presents himself as a voice of the people, shouting even from the rooftops in a quest towards rallying the masses against corruption, inequity, and inequality. However, his confrontational rhetoric and failure to modulate his voice have drawn repeated criticisms. Despite his declarations, people may have serious doubts as to whether he will be able to work on eliminating corruption as they allege that there are quite a few bad apples in his camp too. Moreover, internal divisions within the party, notably with Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, raise questions about Premadasa’s ability to unite the party and lead effectively. However, there is a group of capable persons in his camp as well but there are some concerns as to whether they will have freedom to act. Premadasa has gone on record to say that he will negotiate a new programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and this has led to some doubts being expressed in certain quarters about the feasibility of it and the chances of securing agreement with the IMF on many issues. If Sajith comes to power and the IMF decides to hold fast to its agenda, it would indeed be a case of the proverbial engineer hoisted by his own petard.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake lead the JVP and the NPP, promising to tackle corruption head-on. Despite lacking concrete economic policies, even if they have at least some policies that have not been unveiled so far, the JVP’s anti-corruption stance resonates with many voters. Quite surprisingly perhaps, their policies have appealed to some of the educated and the academics as well as the young, who are not knowledgeable about the JVP’s history. These groups did a disastrous experiment at the last presidential election by voting for a person, expecting him to rule with an iron fist. The JVP’s past involvement in violence and murders, as well as its failure to apologise for past atrocities, could hinder its electoral prospects. Many say that a leopard never changes its spots and as such they are quite concerned about the JVP coming to power.

These are the main players and all others who might enter the fray would just be kind of also-ran nincompoops. Yet for all that, from a different perspective, one cannot forget the role that is likely to be played by smaller parties and ethnic groups mixing up with the major players in this crucible of uncertainty. Smaller parties often represent specific ethnic or minority groups within Sri Lanka, such as the Tamil and Moor communities. These parties play a crucial role in advocating for the interests and rights of their respective constituencies. Their participation in the electoral process ensures that diverse voices are heard and considered in the political arena. In a multi-party system like Sri Lanka’s, smaller parties can hold the balance of power, especially in coalition politics. While larger parties may dominate the political discourse, smaller parties can negotiate and form alliances to secure concessions or policy commitments. As such, their endorsement or support can be instrumental in determining the outcome of elections and forming government coalitions. Smaller parties often champion specific policy agendas or social issues that may not receive adequate attention from mainstream parties. By focusing on niche areas such as environmental conservation, human rights, or regional development, these parties can shape the public discourse and influence the policy priorities of larger parties. Even if they do not possess significant electoral representation, their advocacy efforts can lead to policy changes and reforms.

Sri Lanka’s political landscape is deeply intertwined with ethnic and communal identities, particularly between the majority Sinhalese community and minority Tamil and Muslim communities. Smaller parties representing these ethnic groups can mobilise their support base around issues related to language rights, cultural autonomy, and minority rights. Their presence ensures that these issues remain central to the political agenda and that the concerns of minority communities are not overlooked. Yet for all that, the presence of smaller parties contributes to a vibrant and pluralistic democracy by offering voters a diverse range of choices beyond the dominant political players. This pluralism encourages political competition, debate, and accountability, fostering a more robust democratic culture where different voices and perspectives are valued and represented.

Overall, while smaller parties and ethnic groups may not always command significant electoral support or representation, their role in shaping the political discourse, advocating for minority rights, and fostering democratic pluralism is crucial in ensuring a more inclusive and representative political system in Sri Lanka.

In a variegated early assessment of the political scenario, the UNP, with its track record of economic stability, may appeal to some voters seeking continuity, solidity and expertise. However, concerns about authoritarianism and elitism could undermine its support base. The SJB, under Premadasa’s leadership, taps into populist sentiments but faces challenges in uniting the party and presenting a coherent vision beyond anti-corruption rhetoric. The JVP’s anti-corruption stance could attract disillusioned voters, but its lack of clear economic policies and unresolved issues from its past may limit its electoral appeal. With all these considerations casting shadows over many a group, in the upcoming Presidential Election of 2024, Sri Lankan voters may find themselves facing what appears to be a Hobson’s Choice; a seemingly limited selection between imperfect options. With each major party and candidate presenting their own set of strengths and weaknesses, voters are tasked with navigating through a rather complex political landscape. However, amidst the challenges and uncertainties, it is a forgone conclusion that voters must, simply MUST, exercise their democratic rights thoughtfully and responsibly. While the choices may not be ideal, the act of participation itself is vital in shaping the future of the nation. Ultimately, the electorate must weigh the available options, considering not only immediate concerns but also long-term implications, as they make their decision in this pivotal moment for Sri Lanka’s democracy.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, voters face a crucial decision that will shape the country’s future. Each party and its candidate have their strengths and weaknesses, and it is ultimately up to the electorate to weigh these factors and decide who should rule the country. With economic challenges, corruption, and internal divisions looming large, the stakes are high as Sri Lanka stands at a crossroads.