Social turmoil Lanka’s biggest risk, ex-World Bank official

Sri Lanka faces a “dangerous situation” with continuing social unrest and must avoid a “disorderly default,” the former chief economist of the South Asia regions at the World Bank, Shanta Devarajan told CNBC Friday.

Shortages of food and fuel, along with record inflation and regular blackouts, have brought thousands of Sri Lankans to the streets as the country faces its most painful downturn since independence from Britain in 1948.

“Social turmoil is the biggest risk. That’s why I keep emphasizing the point about cash transfers. As you can see on the streets — the people are angry,” said Devarajan, who is now part of a new government advisory panel formed to tackle the country’s debt crisis.

Devarajan said a cash transfer program aimed at helping the poor, coupled with a reduction of subsidies on food and fuel, will be critical to averting a collapse of Sri Lanka’s debt-ridden economy.

In the past week, protesters and opposition parties alike have called for the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, accusing his government of economic mismanagement.

A foreign currency shortage has left Sri Lanka struggling to import essential goods, even as the coronavirus pandemic has cut off vital tourism revenue. Foreign exchange reserves shrank 16% to $1.93 billion in March

Cautioning against a “disorderly default” on debts by cash-strapped Sri Lanka, he said any austerity measures would also have to be accompanied by efforts to educate the public.

“This is a very dangerous situation. And if you want to introduce austerity in the middle of that situation, you have to manage it very carefully,” said the professor of the practice of development at Georgetown University.

“You have to do two things: One, make sure that the poor are protected — the bottom 40% of the population — [through a] targeted cash transfer. Two, have a public information campaign so that people understand that these measures are needed to avoid an even bigger crisis.”

Ratings agencies have warned of a potential default on billions of dollars in foreign debt, and authorities are struggling to secure more commercial loans because of the credit downgrades.