SL does not have enough power plants to meet demand

Power outage

By Dr Tilak Siyambalapitiya

Anyone can check how much of electricity production capacity Sri Lanka has, by studying authentic information on the web. Sri Lanka’s electricity generating capacity and customer demand, to the closest 100 megawatt is as follows: (See table)

The peak demand this year is forecast to reach 2900 megawatt. In year 2020, the peak demand reported was 2717 megawatt. It happens in the night, around 7pm.

On Monday 31 January 2022, Sri Lanka reported a peak demand of 2710 megawatt at 7pm, without load shedding. So, we are inching toward the 2900 MW peak, as temperatures rise toward 34 C (presently 32 C), and industries and hotels ramp up with more orders and guests, respectively, as we approach April.

Thus, even if all the money in the world is available to buy fuel, with no outages of any power plant, the capacity on the grid is simply not adequate to meet the customer demand. The 200-megawatt minimum shortage and the absence of 800-megawatt of new power plant can be hidden by “ministerial order” or “regulatory commission order”, but not for long. The end is very near.

Anyone who wants any type of power plants to be built in Sri Lanka, can insert its capacity into the above table, recalculate, and work out whether his/her power plant can avoid power cuts at night.

That is the bottom line. Who prevented the 300 megawatt power plant, the gas terminal and the 500 megawatt power plant being built over 2015-2020, is common knowledge.

A similar table for year 2026 can now be prepared, because not a single power plant scheduled is being built. Some are in courts, others have been cancelled.