Sirisena’s plans

Thursday 1st April, 2021

SLPP MP and former President Maithripala Sirisena has apparently sought to deny reports that the SLPP-SLFP relations have turned sour. He has declared in Kandy that he will continue to support President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the SLPP government while strengthening the SLFP, which, he says, will be able to form a government under its own steam.

What’s up Sirisena’s sleeve? Is he planning to run for President again to form an SLFP government?

Given the situation the SLFP is in, political observers may dismiss Sirisena’s statement at issue as mere political rhetoric aimed at boosting the morale of SLFPers ahead of the Provincial Council elections. But the SLFP remains a force to be reckoned with. Its situation is not as bad as that of the UNP; its parliamentary group consists of 14 MPs.

Sirisena, however, finds himself in an unenviable position. He has had to rebuild the party he himself ruined in 2015. The SLFP-led UPFA government had a two-thirds majority in Parliament with the SLFP alone having more than 130 MPs, when he fell out with the Rajapaksas and voted with his feet. He was the SLFP General Secretary at that time.

Having secured the executive presidency with the help of the UNP, in January 2015, he ousted the SLFP-led government and prevented the UPFA from winning the general election (2015) by queering the pitch for his immediate predecessor and former boss, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who tried to make a comeback as the Prime Minister. Now, he is trying to reinvigorate the SLFP while supporting its offshoot, the SLPP led by the Rajapaksas, whom he strove to destroy politically in vain and later closed ranks with, when his honeymoon with the UNP came to an end.

Sirisena drew a lot of flak for taking over the SLFP after winning the presidency in 2015; those who campaigned hard to help him realise his presidential dream wanted him to remain politically neutral as the President. But he was smarter than they thought him to be. He knew the UNP would make short work of him politically if he did not have a political party to back him. The UNP’s plan was to make him the President, strip of him of his executive powers and vest them in Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe so that it could reign supreme. Its plan seemed to work initially, but Sirisena was made of sterner stuff. By taking over the SLFP, he achieved several objectives. The SLFP became a bulwark for him against the UNP, which was undermining him; he prevented former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga from grabbing the SLFP leadership, and foiled an attempt by the Rajapaksas to use the party as a launching pad for a comeback. He also knew that his presidential election win was a one-off and needed a party to hold on to after the expiration of his term.

Sirisena knows the government is not getting any more popular, and there are disgruntled elements within its ranks. The SLPP is the strongest political party in the country at present. It also has a stable vote bank, which it built in record time. But its dependency on a single family is its Achilles’ heel. It is also full of ambitious elements who hear at their back ‘time’s winged chariot hurrying near.’ One may recall that it was ambition that made Sirisena leave the SLFP; he knew he would never be able to become the Prime Minister in the previous Rajapaksa government.

There has already emerged a ginger group in the SLPP government. Some ministers openly strike discordant notes on vital issues, and take on high-ranking government officials close to the powers that be; the SLPP trains its propaganda cannon on these dissidents. The SLFP will be the first choice of anyone who leaves the SLPP in a huff.

Any government loses its magic with the passage of time as the anti-incumbency factor has a corrosive effect on its popularity. The SLPP administration is messing up big time. Sirisena is apparently playing a waiting game. He has proved that there are no permanent friends in politics.