Russia, Asia, Civilizations & Multipolarity: The Valdai View

bt Sanja de Silva Jayatilleka

The Valdai Discussion Club, established in 2004 and named after Lake Valdai in Russia where its first meeting was held, meets every year to evaluate global political and economic issues, to work at “forming the global agenda” and to “promote dialogue among the global intellectual elite in order to find solutions to overcome the crises of the international system”. (Valdai Club ). This they have achieved over the years, gaining in prestige, with the 20th Valdai held in Sochi, Russia last week (Oct 2nd -5th 2023) seeing over 100 delegates from 42 countries participate despite the on-going conflict in Ukraine.

This year too, as in previous years, President Putin attended the conference for the plenary session on the last day, to be interviewed by Valdai’s Professor Fydor Lukyanov and to answer the delegates’ questions with which he engaged at length, and in good spirits. Surprisingly relaxed and at ease, given the situation of the on-going conflict, and keen to engage with the foreign delegates, he seemed to enjoy his question time with them making no effort to cut short the over three hours session. Significantly, even though he surely must be under severe pressure, at no time did he show any trace of impatience or lose his cool in any way, despite some frank questions addressed to him.

Greater Connectivity

What emerged at this year’s Valdai sessions was how Asia is gaining in significance and influence as the global order is sought to be re-balanced. The phenomenon of the ‘Asian Paradox’, described as “hot economics, cold politics”, where deteriorating political equations between countries do not hinder increasing economic activity, has been beneficial to global economic growth, such as between Japan and China, China and India, China and Vietnam and indeed China and the US. (‘Russia & Asia: The Paradoxes of a New Reality’, Valdai Discussion Club Report).

There has been significant movement towards greater connectivity between Russia and the major Asian economies, with the conference calling for further consolidation of those relationships. A North-South trade corridor to improve logistics is part of the on-going efforts.

Russia’s economy was described as adaptive and highly diversified, with a stress resistant banking system, which has now been established. With significant economic growth at 5.2% and low unemployment, Russia feels itself recovered from sanctions shock and is looking to expand its trade and economic relations with the global south.

Most Asian countries did not participate in the US sanctions against Russia. As such, the attempted isolation of Russia through the sanctions regime was termed a “miscalculation”, which actually inspired a transition of trade from West to East. The Valdai publication on Russia and Asia concludes that Asian countries have made their decisions based on their national interest, taking advantage of Russia’s pivot to the East rather than be influenced by “outside pressure at the expense of common sense or mutually beneficial cooperation”. It asserts that this “positive attitude towards Russia” has been helped by the fact that Russia does not attempt to influence their foreign policy choices nor interfere with their internal affairs.

South Asia

India remained neutral on the Ukraine issue, refusing to be pressured into denouncing Russia, its “special strategic partner”. India’s trade with Russia has increased since the sanctions. It has surpassed US$40 billion, with Russia now among the top five of India’s trading partners. Russia is the largest supplier of oil to India ahead of Saudi Arabia and Iraq in crude oil deliveries. Rosneft, the most active operator in India had invited an Indian national to join its Board of Directors this year.

An Aide to President Putin confirmed that Russia will invest more in India, confirming that Aisa is now the main driver of global growth. Russia is already building a nuclear power plant in India. In Bangladesh, the building of a nuclear power plant agreed with Russia in 2017 is already underway. In June this year, Bangladesh applied to join BRICS.

During the conference, it was also suggested by the Indian delegation that Russia should consider using its skilled labour to mitigate the labour shortage in Russia, which suggestion was favourably received. It was revealed that there are already 30,000 Indians working in Russia.

On the eve of this year’s conference, the prestigious Indian think tank, the Vivekananda International Foundation, influential with India’s current administration, signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Valdai Discussion Club.

ASEAN

Except for Singapore, all ASEAN countries stayed neutral on the on-going conflict with Ukraine. Malaysia doubled its imports from Russa in 2022, with several areas of bilateral cooperation such as agriculture and high-tech industries, like aircraft and engine building, electronics and bio-medicine.

A young Malaysian delegate to the conference turned out to have Sri Lankan roots where one his grandfathers had moved first to Singapore and then to Malaysia. Benedict Weerasena, heads a think-tank and made a presentation on Monetary Policy and Multipolarity. He said that ASEAN had agreed to trade in non-dollar settlements, and trade between India and Malaysia will be settled this way. He said de-dollarization had increased trading in the ASEAN region and given them “economic sovereignty.” He cited Malaysia’s and most of the ASEAN’s neutrality on the Ukraine issue as a result of the region prioritizing local economic concerns over ideological alignments.

He also revealed that the tendency towards de-globalization has shifted attention to regional markets and increasing regional economic integration, adding that Malaysia had revived the idea of an Asian Monetary Fund.

Russia-China

The most important relationship for Russia is the one with China. It is reported that President Xi had reiterated the “strategic interaction and cooperation” between the two countries”, when he visited Moscow in March this year. He had also wished President Putin for the upcoming Presidential Elections in 2024.

Last year, Russian exports to China had grown by 43.4% with total trade exceeding US$190 billion. In Addition, it is reported that Chinese “dual-use products” and “non-lethal military equipment” is in operation in the special military zone, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, communication devices, body armour, helmets and uniforms. It is felt that the expanding list of items points towards a “comprehensive defence cooperation”, including Chinese lethal weapons to the conflict zone. The media had reported Chinese armoured vehicles active in the “special operation zone.”

Russia emerged as China’s fastest growing export partner and the two countries had concluded 80% of their trade in local currencies, circumventing what was termed the ‘Western financial infrastructure’. China is seen as Russia’s ‘indispensable’ economic partner, with China’s share of automobile exports from Russia exceeding 70% and Russia increasing its position as China’s largest oil supplier. This improving economic relationship with China is expected to have a positive spill over affect resulting in increased trade with other Asian countries.

Russian Civilization

Russia is keen to share with the world its self-identity as a “distinctive civilization state”. This new foreign policy concept looks to its history and culture to extract a system of values, drawing from their wealth of historical experience, incorporating also the important role played by its spirituality, the Orthodox Chirstian church, and the multiplicity of religions practiced there which includes a large Muslim minority and a much smaller Buddhist community.

Thus, the conference included for the first time a new session on the Russian Civilization, chaired by Dr Dayan Jayatilleka (my spouse) who had to find a way to reconcile the universal values that Russia had already exported to the world with its new desire to relate to the world from the vantage point of its distinct civilization.

Responding to Russian panelists steeped in Eastern Orthodox Christianity and suspicious of the word “universal” which they felt had been imposed on other countries by a hegemonic West, Dayan quoted St. Paul’s Third Epistle to the Galatians (“There is no longer Jew or Greek, there is no longer slave or free, there is no longer male and female; for all of you are one in Christ Jesus”) to illustrate the point that the notion of universality started with St. Paul, who is accepted by all Christian denominations, antedating the schism. Dayan proposed a redefined universality rather than a rejection of the notion of universality itself in response to the West-centric one in existence.

This redefinition could retain the sense of a distinctive civilizational heritage, interact with other civilizations and contribute to a more authentic universality which respected differences. Citing Vietnam which has a 5,000-year civilization, he said that confronting great national challenges is best done by a synthesis of civilization, modernity and universality.

[Sanja de Silva Jayatilleka was an invited participant at the 20th Valdai sessions in Sochi, Russia, Oct 2-5. The Conference theme was ‘Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security & Development for Everyone’.]