Russia after Wagnar Mutiny: Putin’s Politics Redefined

by Nilantha Ilangamuwa

The Gang of Eight in the US was thrilled, expecting a larger spectacle in the Western alliance’s fight against Russia. The CIA, with whom Ukrainian President Zelenskyy shared everything, assured a heavy bloodbath in Moscow. Alas, the inflated balloon unexpectedly burst, leaving their hope in tatters. But, the West’s lost dream does not mean Russia is a success.

As Alexander Dugin pointed out, “clouds begin to thicken again.” Russia has been shaken, prompting Russians and the Putin administration to rethink and redefine their approach. The so-called Wagner mutiny has exposed the hollowness of the narrative fallacies propagated by the West and its corporate media, which contains blatant falsehoods about perceived enemies of the West.

This is not the first time that mainstream Western media has attempted to exploit such incidents to tarnish designated enemies in an unsightly manner. Are you aware of the infamous Ukrainian figure Stepan Bandera, widely known as a Nazi collaborator responsible for the deaths of over a hundred thousand Jews and Poles, and his followers, such as Mykola Lebed, who deeply collaborated with the CIA to undermine the Soviet Union in Ukraine? Declassified government reports have revealed that Ukraine has served as a staging ground for the U.S. to weaken and threaten Moscow for nearly 80 years.

In 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski, former U.S. national security adviser, emphasized the significance of Ukraine as a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard. Did you know that Vladimir Putin, as the newly elected leader of the Russian Federation, officially requested to join NATO in 2000, but the Clinton administration vehemently refused?

More recently, in December 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted that the West never intended to push for the implementation of the Minsk agreements and instead used them as a pretext to buy time for NATO to arm and train the Ukrainian armed forces. Shortly after the outbreak of the war, Russia and Ukraine reached a framework agreement to end the conflict, with Ukraine pledging not to join NATO. However, the objections of the U.S. and U.K. prevented its implementation. Subsequently, we witnessed the so-called 36-hour mutiny, led by Wagner, which perhaps stands as the shortest armed mutiny in Russian history.

However, the Western narratives not only failed miserably but also further damaged their own reputation. The inconsistent stances of the US administration regarding this mutiny from the outset indicate a lack of understanding of Russia’s socio-political reality. Despite this, US companies have capitalized on the conflict, holding Ukraine hostage, while Europe has endured unprecedented destruction.

It is crucial for the opposing parties to accurately grasp the geopolitical dynamics of Russia, as Europe needs Russia. Russia is the largest state in the world, spanning 17.1 million square kilometers across eleven time zones. It has been led by the same leader for 23 years and boasts the world’s fifth-largest military, with 1.15 million active-duty troops and at least two million reserve personnel.

Contrary to the analysis presented by Western media, the head of the Wagner private military company, who challenged several high-ranking officials of the Russian army, along with approximately two thousand supporters, had no intention of invading Moscow, overthrowing President Putin, or plunging Russia into civil war. Even disregarding the facts, a basic understanding of mathematics would debunk these false interpretations. However, for the stubborn, egocentric hyper-minds, true comprehension remains elusive, with truth always serving as their archenemy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner’s company, is a self-proclaimed general skilled at perpetuating small lies to facilitate grand scams. His primary objective is to maximize profit, not govern Russia. He never opposed President Putin or the administration as a whole. A closer examination of his messages, assuming their authenticity, reveals that his public protest stems from a dispute with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. This crisis has been developing internally for years since Shoigu objected to awarding certain military contracts to Wagner.

This so-called mutiny may be an unintended consequence of a private military unit receiving more preferential treatment than the regular army during operations. Alternatively, it could be the result of conflicts arising from the substantial funding—over one billion dollars—allocated to Wagner by the central government in just one year. Prigozhin is a businessman who has amassed significant wealth through his private army. According to reports, his declared personal wealth is US$1.5 billion and continues to flourish.

Putin’s decisive response showcases his strong leadership, prioritizing the state’s structure over personal ties. Upholding the state’s institutions, Putin safeguards Russian society and recognizes their crucial role in his leadership.

Another intriguing observation is Prigozhin’s endorsement of President Alexander Lukashenko’s proposals. President Lukashenko is widely recognized as one of President Putin’s most trusted politicians. This raises the question of what motivated Prigozhin to place his trust in Lukashenko and choose Belarus as a retreat. It remains to be seen whether Wagner utilized the mercenary army to strengthen Lukashenko’s position, as he faces political instability. Only time will provide the answer to this question.

This agreement raises doubts about whether the incidents in Russia over the past weekend were orchestrated as part of a carefully planned drama. If so, even individuals with basic knowledge of military operations and strategies have doubts about whether the strengthening of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, which stretches approximately 1,084 km, was in preparation for a decisive military operation in the future. As the Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu stated in his book “The Art of War,” ‘all warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.’ Putin may have grasped this strategy long ago during his time in the KGB.

However, the Wagner ‘mutiny’ raises a significant social issue: the potential social divide that can arise when private military companies challenge the state’s legitimate military forces. This issue is particularly important for the future of the region, as the Ukraine-Russia war has transformed into a conflict between two ideologically distinct worlds rather than two countries.

The Wagner incident sheds light on the Russian people and their social opinions. While the Wagner mercenary army undeniably maintains a level of popularity, it is important to note that the company heavily invests in PR campaigns and utilizes troll farms to bolster its image. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion has proven to be more protracted than initially anticipated. But, historical precedent shows that Russians have endured prolonged wars before, albeit reluctantly.

Despite this, a formidable political alternative capable of challenging Putin’s leadership has yet to emerge. Western countries have made attempts to create viable alternatives since 1991, but their lack of understanding of Russian society has hindered their success. Destabilizing Russia’s internal structures can weaken its strength, a fact that former KGB operative Putin is well aware of. To dismantle Putin’s administration, one must employ individuals with a profound understanding of his character. Thus, when Prigozhin voiced his protest, Western countries and their pro-Ukraine media hailed him as a hero.

Whether the Wagner mutiny is factual or merely a scene from a drama, it highlights the challenges faced by states that rely on private armies. Two years prior to President Putin’s military operations in Ukraine, Eric Prince, the former head of the US mercenary company previously known as Blackwater (later renamed Xe Services and then Academi in 2011), held a meeting with top officials of Ukrainian President Zelensky on February 23, 2020. During this meeting, Prince proposed that his private army was ready to engage in war against Russia.

Eric’s mercenary army first gained public attention during the US invasion of Iraq, has been involved in operations across various regions, including Africa. Although Eric Prince’s mission in Ukraine failed, there are other private military companies actively involved in conflicts against Russia. Reports suggest that officers in these companies can earn as little as two thousand US dollars per day, highlighting the lucrative nature of such operations.

However, the detrimental impact of maintaining private armies on official state forces should not be underestimated. In response, the United Nations adopted the International Convention Against the Recruitment, Use, Financing, and Training of Mercenaries on December 4, 1989, which came into force on October 20, 2001. It is worth noting that some of the world’s largest and most powerful armies, including those of the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom, have not ratified this convention. This inconsistency raises questions about the true stance of these countries on the use of mercenaries and private military companies.

In March 2024, Russia will hold its presidential elections, eight months ahead of the US race. It will be President Putin’s first election since the 2020 constitutional amendment. The upcoming winter holds immense significance for all parties involved and may determine the outcome of the war. The impact of his invasion of Ukraine and the presence of mercenary forces throughout his tenure will undoubtedly shape the presidential election’s outcome, a crucial task in times of war. Whether the Wagner incident is genuine or orchestrated, it has given President Putin’s politics a new dimension. As one of Russia’s longest-serving leaders, Putin faces a critical juncture, and the choices he makes will undoubtedly shape the future, for better or worse.