Renewed indications of an India-centric South Asia

Other evidence of the centrality of India in the South Asian region and of its re-doubling importance to the powers that matter most in the South and outside comes in the form of news of an impending thaw in India-Pakistan relations. Reports indicated that Pakistan’s army chief had called on the Indian government to create a ‘conducive environment’ in Kashmir for the resumption of a peace dialogue between the countries. This follows reconciliatory overtures towards India by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. Needless to say, a less troubled relationship between India and Pakistan would do South Asia immense good.

While India’s regional predominance is a fact too obvious to be contested, current fast-breaking developments in South Asian inter-state politics in particular are likely to prompt those countries of the region, which have not quite come to terms with this reality, to initiate policy resets with regard to India. Policy issues for states of the region flowing from the impossibility of ignoring India’s presence are bound to intensify in the days ahead in tandem with the increasing presence of extra-regional powers in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR).

The realization ought to be increasingly dawning on these countries of South Asia that plans for their immediate well being are inextricably bound-up with India, regardless of how distasteful this idea may be to some opinion sections of the region. But such realizations should not be construed as tantamount to recognizing India as the proverbial ‘Big Brother’ of South Asia. The latter perception is rife in popular ‘discourse’ and is not admissible in a serious discussion on foreign policy questions.

It is the small states of South Asia that are likely to face these policy quandaries with regard to India most. There is the case of Sri Lanka, for instance, that has found it opportune over the years to strengthen its ties with China while attempting to ensure unruffled relations with India. This is a tight rope walk of the most exacting kind.

The policy issues Sri Lanka currently faces over its plans to develop the West Terminal of the Colombo Port, in the face of objections from local ultra nationalist sections and others, point to the sensitivity Sri Lanka would need to continuously cultivate with regard to India’s pressing needs while trying to pacify anti-India quarters at home. It’s a very hapless position to be in for a small state. But the ‘lesson’ is clear that ignoring India would not be easy for small states of the region in particular. Hence, the need for states to manage their India relations effectively and foresightedly. A foreign policy based on pragmatism and realism will emerge as a priority for all regional states.

There is the very interesting case of the Maldives, meanwhile, that warrants South Asia’s attention. It has chosen to bolster its security and defence ties with the US and India. While critics of the Maldives foreign policy are likely to focus on the implications of these moves by the archipelago for its sovereignty and connected questions, a more objective analysis would reveal a down-to-earth assessment of its legitimate needs by the Maldives. It should be plain to see that the Maldives is choosing to achieve its national interest through a policy of cooperation with the major powers concerned.

On the one hand, there is the recognition of the regional predominance of India, over which nothing of an ameliorative nature could be done, and, on the other, there is the recognition of the continuing super power status of the US, which would be needed by the Maldives to counter-balance the rising presence of China in the IOR in particular and in the world in general. It does not follow from these foreign policy moves that the Maldives is taking an anti-China position but we have the evidence here that the aim of the Maldives is to be seen as following a balanced course in its foreign relations with its national interest uppermost in mind.

Some of the provisions of the ‘Maritime Security and Development Administration and Maintenance of the Maldivian National Defence Forces Agreement’ which the Maldives reportedly signed with India recently are bound to be seen as highly controversial and a kind of ‘sell out’ to India by sections of opinion in the South in particular but it is up to a country to skilfully negotiate such accords to ensure that their best interests are served. If a country fails in this regard it has only itself to blame. Moreover, some compromises would need to be made by a state in the cause of furthering its vital interests. There are no ‘ideal formulae’, so to speak, in securing the latter aims.

The Maldives security accord with India would need to be focused on in this connection because the agreement, according to sections of the local press, provides for the stationing of Indian troops, among other things, in the island of Uthuru Thalafalhu (UTF). And the Indian troops will be ‘permitted to carry weapons’ within the isle.

At first blush, the Maldives would seem to have caved-in to some sort of ‘Indian pressure’, but it is highly unlikely that the archipelago has gone into the agreement blindly. Given the predominance of India and its strengthening alliance with the US, a friction-free security relationship with India would have been seen by the Maldives as central to its national interest. The Maldives is obliged to ensure that provisions of the accord are not abused in any way by the troops that would be stationed in the isle concerned. Skilful negotiating is the key but there is no reason to believe that the Maldives lacks this capability.

Other evidence of the centrality of India in the South Asian region and of its re-doubling importance to the powers that matter most in the South and outside comes in the form of news of an impending thaw in India-Pakistan relations. Reports indicated that Pakistan’s army chief had called on the Indian government to create a ‘conducive environment’ in Kashmir for the resumption of a peace dialogue between the countries. This follows reconciliatory overtures towards India by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. Needless to say, a less troubled relationship between India and Pakistan would do South Asia immense good.

Meanwhile, a ground-breaking visit was made to India recently by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. The purpose of his visit, primarily, was to further bolster US-India defence cooperation. Earlier, Austin reportedly told a US Senate confirmation hearing, among other things, that, ‘China presents the most significant threat going forward because China is ascending…’

Accordingly, containing the perceived spreading power and influence of China has become a key foreign policy platform of the US. It sees India as a very handy ally in this effort and it is not wrong in this assessment. India too is in an effort to contain China but it is unlikely to see China as an arch rival with which it cannot peacefully coexist.