“Renewable Energy Dominance” – Not a hallucinating looney vision!

The sentiments expressed by Professor Kumar David in his article titled, “CEB’s LTGEP the best strategy” published on September 3, 2020 differs significantly from the power sector development path favored by many forward thinking professionals and academics in Sri Lanka.

Fossil fuel appetite

While the renewable energy (RE) industry grows rapidly worldwide, Sri Lanka power sector technocrats continue to prepare generation expansion plans that emphasize coal and LNG based plants with token allocation of wind and solar. This conventional approach features large capacity fossil fuel based plants to be financed via state borrowing for meeting the demands of industry, commerce and consumers.

This approach is outdated! Today, the harnessing of RE resources for electricity generation is viewed as an important element in the economic and technological development of a nation.

Such a strategy helps to meet key development objectives such as; a) reduced exposure to risks (fuel price and currency); b) increased avenues for private sector investment (avoidance of State debt); c) dispersed project developments; d) technological advancement; e) skilled job creation, and; f) enhanced green credentials.

Does it make sense to export prosperity to a fossil fuel supplying country and increase the carbon footprint to effect an economy dependent on exports and tourism?

SL is uniquely blessed with abundant wind and solar resources. The technology is mature and continuing to advance while costs are on a downward trajectory. Wind and solar power can be integrated with the existing fossil fueled and hydropower plants to meet the electricity demand in stable fashion. Analysis and simulation of the integrated power system will determine the quantum of RE capacity that can be supported by the existing power system.

The national leadership favors RE and State Minister Duminda Dissanayake referred to a farsighted plan to achieve a target of using 80 percent of RE in the national grid within the next 10 years.

While the target is ambitious, the generation expansion plan must reflect this vision. Experts can formulate plans to facilitate attainment of the goal.

Rather than brushing aside the potential of RE in dismissive fashion, Professor David could have contributed to a productive discourse by giving consideration to global technological trends on the RE front and exploring their suitability for large scale adaptation in Sri Lanka.

Perhaps the following examples may encourage the Professor to do a rethink:

Wind/solar hybrid plants with battery storage

Land in the northern region of the island are zoned for development of wind-solar-storage hybrid projects. Auctioning of high capacity blocks for private sector development will see the benefit of economics of scale (low tariff). Advanced weather forecasting and battery storage for ramped electricity supply and withdrawal provide grid friendly characteristics. The annual energy potential of such hybrid RE power plants will be significant.

Micro grids

Micro grids for rural electricity supply based on Solar PV with battery storage and optional ‘off peak’ electricity supply via grid will curb electricity demand from fossil fueled plants. This helps to reduce transmission losses and address climate concerns. With over 70% of the SL population resident in rural areas, does it make sense to generate and distribute so called “affordable” electricity from centralized fossil fueled plants and push the nation further into debt? The scale up potential of rural micro grids must be explored.

Prosumer

A prosumer (producer/consumer) is identified as an electricity subscriber with roof top solar, battery storage and smart controls who is subject to ‘time of hour’ metering, peak demand charge and demand side management programs. Smart devices will control consumption during high tariff rates and shave peak demand level by shutting off appliances.

Should the State deliver “affordable” fossil fuel based electricity to “high end” users such as hotels and luxury dwellings when they could be financially incentivized to adopt state of the art technologies? When commercial and industrial facilities and high end residences are considered, the scale up potential of this prosumer phenomenon will be significant.

The above are just few examples. There is more! The hill country with existing hydro, future pumped storage combined with solar and wind opens up numerous possibilities.

A RE based power expansion strategy with private sector investment will lead to distributed generation and “unbundling” of the grid. Restructuring of the state electricity sector is essential.

Professor David should shed his conventional thinking and develop familiarity with the world of wind, solar, batteries, distributed generation, smart grids, smart meters, digitalization, AI, IoT, etc. This represents the future and Sri Lanka should adapt fast.

Mayura Botejue

Consultant – Renewable Energy

Email: mbotejue@gmail.com