Features
Remember Ranil is Revengeful and a Risk to Rights
by Kumar David
The five big Rs in my title all serve a purpose. Remember, recall past experience which is that Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) is a Risk to democratic Rights and some say that he in prone to be Revengeful. Therefore, we have to remain on guard for another two and a half years till the constitutionally legitimate term of the current presidency expires. Unfortunately, circumstances are more complex and dangerous; I will deal with that anon, but first I must say upfront that RW is president legitimately and constitutionally. Those who say he has no legal right to hold the office are wrong. They have justifiable moral ire on their side since he did not win a seat at the 2020 elections; his presidency is unpopular and he owed his prime ministership to a backdoor deal to safeguard the Rajapaksa rogues; but none of this amounts to constitutional illegitimacy. Governments the world over are at times derided by the population, but that does not make them constitutionally illegitimate, only irksome.
This makes circumstances tricky. RW has a constitutional right to soldier on for the remaining unexpired portion of Gota’s term, to ignore demands to repeal the executive presidency as desired by 80% of the people, and to ignore the clamour for a new constitution (or even ignore 21A/22A). True he can be forced to resign as Gotha was compelled to do by extra-constitutional mass pressure exerted by millions, but then as in Gota’s case it would be a supra-constitutional act. It is in this background that my five-Rs play. Let me repeat: Although RW’s presidency can run up to the end of its constitutionally legitimate days he also comes with the stigma of scant respect for democratic and human rights and he will manifest these genes whether ingrained by nature or acquired by his nurturing in an authoritarian neo-liberal JR-period apprenticeship. Do not expect RW to shift against these deep-rooted traits, unless!
Ha! Unless what? All things are transient, all morality tradeable and in politics as in other facets of life self-interest comes first. So, what tradeable merchandise does Ranil have? He is the SLPP’s president although 15 to 20 of Sajith’s SJB MPs must have voted for him – otherwise the numbers (134:82) just don’t add up. Having elected him the SLPP cannot impeach him; the procedure is cumbersome. But RW needs a strong support base in the SLPP only until he consolidates a multi-party government. He also needs a reputation in the international arena that he is not a violator of democratic rights otherwise he won’t get any money. If self-interest makes it advantageous for Ranil to dump the Rajapaksas he will do it and reshuffle his Cabinet into the bargain. Yes, the SLPP gave him the ladder to climb up, but he will kick it if it serves his interests to do so. A big plus for RW’s popularity could be if corrupt members of the Rajapaksa-clan are arrested and indicted. The days of the Rajapaksas are numbered one way or the other
The scant regard that Ranil and his military have for human rights was on display in the first act of his presidency – senseless brutality. Sending troops to beat up political opponents, some still asleep, as well as journalists, lawyers and folks out for a walk on Galle Face is vintage Batalanda Ranil. This man, his military and his alleged goons bared their fangs. However, the violence misfired badly. The backlash was universal; Cardinals and monks, lawyers, doctors, columnists, university staff and scientists have savaged him mercilessly. The JVP has described him as an oppressor. He and his military are withering in the face of condemnation from every quarter domestic, diplomatic and international. He is now running for cover pleading for an all-party government as a fig-leaf to hide his ebbing manliness. He may get a ‘national government’ of sorts but it will impose on him the condition that he behaves. The multi-party tail will wag the presidential dog. RW will swallow his autocratic and vengeful pride and bend his knee since that will be the only way he can survive. For starters no one will touch him unless the Emergency goes.
I am not suggesting that breaking into government buildings and trashing furniture is acceptable. It is wrong and wrong doers must be prosecuted. However, the authorities in democratic societies handle such matters with finesse and patience; not Ranil and his army. The Western diplomatic community in Lanka led by US Ambassador Julie Chung was aghast. Her statement in part reads “(Express) my grave concern over the unnecessary and deeply troubling escalation of violence against protestors . . . This is not the time to crack down on citizens”. Please reread this again and again, it’s a slap in Ranil’s face.
The British and Canadian High Commissioners, the UN’s Resident Coordinator in Lanka, EU’s representative and the UNHRC in Geneva have not refrained from slippering him on both cheeks. And he needs money, lots of foreign money from the IMF, India, the West and Japan if his government is to survive. His state needs a few billion dollars simply to pull through the next month or two. It will not get a kopek, not even from China if he tramples on rights and provokes unrest. China, already rightly accused of befriending thuggish military regimes in Burma and Pakistan, will be cautious about blundering again in Sri Lanka. In my view RW will be compelled to climb down and compromise on democracy.
Ranil’s survival is predicated on alms dropped into his begging bowl; if his military does not climb down and put its guns in its pockets there will be an explosion that makes Goth’s eviction look like a children’s party. Yes, RW’s presidency is lawful and constitutional, but what can anyone do if the man insists on arresting demonstrators, dealing harshly with youthful miscreants and continuing an unjustified State on Emergency? What substantive concessions is RW going to make to reassure domestic and international opinion that his government poses no threat to rights and democratic freedoms?
He miscalculated badly when he sent his troops and goons after aragalaya which was on the backfoot and retreating – not fast enough, but retreating for sure. Now RW will have to climb down and eat humble pie or he will not get political stability, a must for substantive international economic support. Kilometers-long, prolonged petrol queues spawn anger and unrest, fights break out, this situation has to end fast. This is the first of two key points in my case today.
RW thought that if he adorned himself in a fancy suit and spoke in grammatical English to the IMF team, he will get a deal. That may still turn out to be true but neither Ranil nor his technically dumb Cabinet understand that fuel and fuel above all else underpins the workings of a modern economy. Production, exports, industries, public transport, offices, schools, the very wheels of a modern society are predicated on the availability of fuel. Even editors, economists and column writers groping in the dark till recently are now getting a glimpse of the technical imperatives of modernism.
OK let us now leave aside immediate concerns and move on to review short and medium-term options. A period of belt-tightening, fiscal discipline and capitalist economics is unavoidable; inflation and interest rates will remain high. Electricity, water and fuel prices will go higher. Exchange controls will be relaxed in anticipation of FDI and capital inflows, the rupee will fall further. The external and domestic economy are coupled and cannot be separated. (Subsidies and relief will have to put in place for the poorest decile if not quintile of society but that is a different issue).
I cannot see Sri Lanka climbing out of this hole for many years. Yes, we are entering a period of capitalist economics, that’s the second key point in my case today. It’s a fact but the challenge for the JVP-NPP, aragalaya and progressives is to ensure that it is also a period of (bourgeois) democracy. No matter whether Ranil gets his all-party or many-party government, no matter what Sajith and his fractious SJB do, the left’s political mission at this time is to sustain democracy. The JVP-NPP is unlikely to join a multi-party government but it will have to wisely navigate an unavoidable period of capitalism and strengthen its hand in the interim. A revolutionary overthrow of capitalism at this time is an illusion.
What then are the prospects facing the next elected government? We have to be realistic and give our minds to say the five-year programme of the next elected government whether the election is soon or whether RW’s presumptive ‘national government’ soldiers on till 2025. In my view the medium-term economic strategy for Sri Lanka should be double-track: (a) a strong state-led interventionist strategy, and (b) market forces to guide effective and efficient decision making in investment and production and to encourage entrepreneurship.
Julie Chung told Ranil to behave himself
Sounds contradictory? No, not at all! Let me explain with an example we are familiar with, summarised by S.R. de Silva in “The Other Side of Globalisation” published by the Employers’ Federation of Ceylon. Consider the much-publicised East Asian Economic Miracle – Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. The crucial point is that East Asia did NOT accept the then neoliberal IMF’s prescriptions. These countries did not exclude the state from economic policy, quite the contrary the state played a key role in picking winners and losers and in choosing emergent sectors and industries. The state did not leave it to market forces to set the menu initially; only gradually was a freer role opened to the market. The approach was a grand success.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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