Features
Ranil’s strategic manoeuvres
But global capitalism is at A tipping-point
by kumar David
A number of factors constrain the functioning of capitalism, at least in the form in which we have known it for about three centuries; the world has reached a tipping point. I am no starry-eyed dreamer forecasting imminent socialism nor a youthful romantic swayed by visions of instant revolution. My case is more plastic and prosaic. I only argue that population dynamics in most parts of the world (Western Africa may be an exception), the change of lifestyle intrinsic in modern technology, exploding productivity (including digitisation, IT, AI, Chat GPT etc), the dire threat of global warming unanimously forecast by the scientific community and its consequences, and environmental degradation cum loss of biodiversity, all of this taken together predicates that an economic arrangement propelled by profit as its raison-d’etre cannot coexist comfortably with this emergent world.
To put it simply I will try to show that de facto twenty-first century social boundaries and an economic order whose primary rationale is profit are in conflict. Capitalism, propelled primarily by markets and profit contradicts the emerging rationalities of the planet. Capitalism as we know it is on life support.
Population: The broadly held view is that the world’s population is too large. In response to this China launched its one-child policy half a century ago and Rajiv Gandhi offered transistor radios as a gift to males who agree to neuter their marbles. (My guru Professor R.H. Raul took the trouble to explain: “This in nonsense you must spay females; castrating males is pointless. If you miss one randy fellow, every bitch in town will be loaded. But every sterilised bitch is one litter less every season”). Demographics cries out for population control but market economics counsels that declining population equals falling demand. What they mean is that the consumer base for the sale of output, and hence realising surplus value, is constrained. Without a market into which goods are sold there is no way that owners of the means of production (capitalists in simpler terms) can gather profits. This is the reason why population decline frightens the captains of capital.
The Communist Party of China, the champion of one-child practices, has done a volte-face and is encouraging population growth in part to enable Provincial Governments and Chinese capitalists to enhance economic market activity. It is, of course, also in part to offset practical problems that an ageing population creates such as the need for care-homes and family income pressures arising from an inverted demographic profile when women enter the work force, choose to pursue education or to breed less.
Similar factors are at work all over the world both in developed and poor nations. In some instances, like the USA and Scandinavia it is the practical problems of an inverted population pyramid that is troubling, but in others, it is the realisation of profit that is the concern of capitalist governments and main-stream (bourgeois) economic apologists.
Technology and productivity: True the bourgeoisie has in its brief reign created marvels that put Egyptian pyramids and Chinese Walls to shame. The capitalist mode of production has created conditions that render capitalism itself redundant. The same is true of every previous mode of production the world has passed through. However, the vestiges of all prior social orders remained visible after its demise – for example the remnants of feudalism are visible even in contemporary land tenure. The capitalist mode of production is a powerful one and its rationale will linger long after its domination of society is past. For example, the rationality of competition in efficient distribution of productive and natural resources (what a mess the Soviet command economy made of things), and its easy compatibility with social democracy (China, Cuba and Venezuela are counter examples). Vestiges of the capitalist mode of production will survive till mankind escapes from “the domain of necessity to the domain of freedom”, or to put it in less grandiloquent terms, for a long time.
To return to down to earth technology, IT has come into powerful prominence. One simple yardstick is that large numbers of “arts” degrees in Sri Lanka’s universities now offer an add-on IT option; an IT-minor as it is called elsewhere. Technology is creeping in through every pore. (Unlike the chemistry, physics and biology labs of conventional science, even resource inhibited village schools can offer microprocessors and a small software budget) and younger generations of science teachers are not technology dumbos. The next generation will be techno savvy. My regular three-wheeler driver is damned smart with his handphone in navigating the internet, downloading stuff, knowing when to turn mobile-data on or off and things that were unknown at the time I retired from the engineering deanship of Hong Kong’s largest Engineering Faculty 15+ years ago!
The relevance of all this to my column today is that thanks to the productive powers immanent in social labour and in human ingenuity, and the drive of the capitalist mode of production (thank you) humankind has arrived at a stage where its ability to produce material commodities has brought it to the brink of plenty. Enough milk, butter and agricultural commodities can be produced to feed all the world’s hungry, but cannot be produced because the market will crash due to super abundance and capitalism will self-negate its existence! What a paradox? I should have entitled this essay ‘The Theatre of the Absurd’.
President Ranil’s strategy and the NPP-JVP: I would like to move the discussion a little nearer home and the contradictions and constraints facing President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) on one side, and social-democrats and leftists on the other side, as the former attempts to fit into formulae prescribed by the IMF and wriggle around an election dilemma. IMF dictates make RW unpopular with the poor but they are clear-cut. An example is that as I predicted long ago the rupee may strengthen to better than 280 to the dollar in the next period. Nevertheless, RW cannot postpone Local and Provincial elections indefinitely; his excuses have already made him an object of ridicule. He seems to have zeroed in on of holding Presidential Elections by about the end of this year as his best strategy. This requires a constitutional amendment to advance the election which is due only in November 2024.
If the ruling parties go along with this gambit and endorse the amendment, can RW defeat the NPP (National Peoples’ Power)-JVP candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake? RW has the support of the elite, the business community, some minority voters, and urban and rural conservatives. Anura will make a strong showing among youthful voters, less privileged castes in certain provinces, radicalised middle-class intellectuals and leftists. It is too early to make predictions but let’s watch how the campaign hots up if RW secures his constitutional amendment. He will of course promise the Rajapaksas the sun and the moon and assure the clan that Namal will be the post-election prime minister and the next presidential candidate. However, the moron can be undercut at the right moment. There are wheels within wheels.
The NPP-JVP’s dilemma is its glaring inability to produce a programme. Many people, this writer included have been demanding a draft for months. Interminable procrastination makes it clear that the NPP is incapable of writing programme on its own. There are comrades and associates of the NPP who can help it to produce intelligible to ordinary people drafts of say 10 pages on any and every critical topic. Jayampathy Wickremeratne (JW) and Lal Wijenayake for example can readily prepare proposals for constitutional amendments; both have been involved in drafting national constitutions. JW belongs to a study circle which should write a 10-page document for wide public education about necessary constitutional changes. We have had a 21st Amendment, a 22nd Amendment and I don’t remember what else. The pubic is lost in this asinine maze.
There are youthful economists well qualified to submit economic plans to the NPP’s governing body but they are politically immature and incapable of writing credible programmatic documents. There are dozens of sympathetic economists and technologists, who if they get down to it, can prepare useful drafts but again they are political novices. It’s high time the NPP sets in motion teams to prepare proposals for submission to its decision-making council. Nothing is being done; the NPP is paralysed.
RW’s fear that the NPP-JVP will do better at a parliamentary election than any coalition he can cobble together is correct. Analysts envisage a plurality of seats, say one-third or more, going to the NPP-JVP, and say a quarter of the seats in Parliament to a RW-SLPP alliance. These analysts are dismissive of prospects for Sajith’s SJB – maybe a dozen seats.
If we remember that about 25 seats will be won directly by Tamil and Muslim parties, over all the maths adds up to 225. So, are we looking at a hung parliament? Well that’s the talk and it makes the NPP’s ability to splice together a well-constructed, credible, programme with broad appeal doubly important in winning over allies in the next parliament if it fails to secure an absolute majority by itself as may be the case.
The JVP’s attitude to the minorities is immature. Anura spoke at a well-attended meeting in Jaffna recently and was pleased as punch that the bigwigs of Jaffna politics were in attendance on front row seats.
The JVP seems to have made the jackass assumption that Tamils will vote for it in droves even if it says nothing about devolution, redressing grievances of Tamils and Muslims, returning to their owners private Tamil homes occupied and trashed by the military, and the nagging issue of the “disappeared”. The legislation proposed by the RW government to replace the PTA is more draconian than the original. One-time Tamil militants have been imprisoned interminably on flimsy grounds but Anura has made no promise that a JVP government will release them.
Repealing Sinhala Only legislation and repealing the chapter on Buddhism in the Constitution are more complicated. In the interim RW, the shrewd old fox, has issued a flurry of executive orders designed to show the minorities that he is concerned about their worries.
Unfortunately, some minority community voters outside the North and East will buy it. The UNP is by far the party of anti-Tamil pogroms (e.g. the 1983 carnage) and the patron of racist cultural outrages (burning the Jaffna Public Library) but because of the influence of conservative Tamil leaders and the gimmicks of the community’s upper castes many Tamil voters follow slavishly.
Neither the UNP nor the JVP will get many Tamil or Muslim votes in the principal areas of these people’s domicile (people will vote for their own kind). In other areas minority communities may vote for RW and/or the UNP because the JVP is making a jackass of itself as mentioned two paras above. As an NPP member I find it depressing. I hope the NPP grandees will bestir themselves and wake up.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
US sports envoys to Lanka to champion youth development
Rahuman questions sudden cancellation of leave of CEB employees
