Ranil waiting for a nekatha?

A front page report in Thursday’s The Island read “NL slot: Ranil still dilly-dallying.” Dilly-dallying was the right word for describing what Wickremesinghe is doing about filling the single National List slot his party won following its zero seat debacle at the last parliamentary election. The report under reference quoted UNP Chairman Vajira Abeywardena saying that Wickremesinghe had not yet decided to occupy this still vacant seat to which his party must make a formal nomination. Several weeks earlier the UNP had decided that Wickremesinghe must take that place. According to Abeywardena, the party’s “leader for life,” as some deride him, would decide on returning to parliament (or not, we presume) in a month or two. But recent weeks have shown Ranil showing his face in the political scene, though from outside parliament, via media interviews and public appearances signaling that he’s not yet past tense.

Soon after his party’s rout last August, Wickremesinghe went on record saying he will not accept the National List position, but he showed no signs whatever of giving up the UNP leadership. President J.R. Jayewardene, Ranil’s kinsman and mentor, crafted the 1978 constitution to ensure via a proportional representation (PR) system for future elections that no major party can suffer a landslide defeat. The UNP had suffered one under the old Westminster-style order in 1956 when late Prime Minister SWRD Bandaranaike said that “the last nail had been driven into the UNP’s coffin.” The SLFP led by Bandaranaike’s widow suffered the same fate in 1977 when the once proud old left, comprising the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) and Communist Party (CP), suffered the same zero debacle that was the UNP’s lot at the last election. Under the previous order there were no National List straws for drowning political parties to clutch.

JRJ proved Bandaranaike wrong at the Colombo Municipal Council election that the followed the 1956 “people’s revolution” when the UNP, which governed the country since Independence, was stunningly swept out of office. By March 1960, after Bandaranaike’s tragic assassination, the greens were back in national office, albeit briefly. But five years later, the party served a full term under Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake until a second debacle hit it in 1970. Such blows, no doubt, influenced Jayewardene to use the five sixth majority he won in 1977 under a constituency system to build constitutional safeguards against history repeating itself. But the best laid plans of mice and men can go awry as the contemporary political history of this country has amply demonstrated.

If Ranil Wickremesinghe did not wish to occupy the UNP’s only National List seat in Parliament when his party decided he should fill it, he should or could have said so. He did clearly say that he will not take that seat in the immediate aftermath of the last election resulting in other’s staking claims and John Amaratunga, a party heavyweight, believing he would be back in the legislature. Thereafter the weeks and months were allowed to roll by leaving the whole matter suspended in midair. Wickremesinghe, who has been prime minister of this country several times, has by his conduct both in and out of office shown that he is a believer in the beneficial effect of attending various poojas in South India and probably has astrological beliefs. As such, none can be blamed for wondering whether he is awaiting a propitious moment – a nekatha – to return to Parliament if such is his intention. Given his recent interviews, last week on the Colombo Port City which his coalition promised to scrap but only delayed at substantial cost to the nation, and his retention of the UNP’s leadership, he does not seem to want to cut and run or retire gracefully.

The western traditions towards which he had long tilted would have required him to quit after a debacle of the proportions of August 2020. This he did not do. As UNP leader, he thrice chose not to run for president, first conceding the opposition slot to Sarath Fonseka, then to Maithripala Sirisena and finally to Sajith Premadasa whom he wanted to field not as UNP leader but as deputy leader. Premadasa did not accept that, split the UNP taking most of its parliamentary group with him, leaving Ranil with a rump. Some analysts would say that the not running concessions were made in the belief that two of those candidate’s would not win. In Sirisena’s case, the common opposition candidature was structured in a manner that enabled Wickremesinghe to call the shots if victory was achieved.

But it must also be said in Wickremesinghe’s defence that he probably would have won the 2005 presidential election but for the LTTE’s intervention, closing exit points from territory the Tigers held to government-controlled areas where polling stations were located, preventing thousands of
Tamils from voting. It has been alleged that there was heavy rigging at the previous presidential race which Ranil narrowly lost. He’s among the most experienced among our politicians, thrice served as prime minister, had long stints as opposition leader and is widely acknowledged as man of ability. He is slightly older than President Gotabaya Rajapaksa (both were born in 1949) but younger than Mahinda. Wickremesinghe catapulted to the UNP leadership as a result of the assassinations of Gamini Dissanayake, Lalith Athulathmudali and Ranasinghe Premadasa.

JRJ once famously said that he had succeeded in climbing the greasy pole outliving his opponents. But none of them were assassinated. It’s difficult to figure out now what Wickremesinghe’s game plan is. He is keeping his cards close to his chest and fending off questions during occasional public appearances.