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Ranil is running out of time and tricks, now it’s time the people had their say
by Rajan Philips
The first part of the title needs no elaboration. The second part is an unfolding question that has many answers to it, and which one of them will eventually prevail also depends on multiple factors. Objective circumstances, agency roles and subjective leadership moves are all at play. The simplest way to exit in politics is to resign. No amendment, no majority, or no referendum is needed.
The last President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, unwittingly established a new precedent in Sri Lankan politics when he resigned from office after running away from it. All that said, Sri Lankans could also be thankful to Mr. Rajapaksa for leaving the way he did, unlike say Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel whose belligerence has created the most explosive situation for the region and the world in the 21st century.
No one is expecting President Wickremesinghe to resign before his carryover term from his predecessor is over. But there are plenty of speculations and suspicions about Mr. Wickremesinghe’s political intentions and the tricks that he might play to extend his stay in power. When it comes to elections, no matter what elections, no one has a clue about what the President is going to do. The truth is even the President may not be knowing what he is going to do, because he is constantly looking for winning conditions for him to call an election.
The tricks he plays!
For Ranil Wickremesinghe, winning conditions are hard to come by. Absolute power has come to him late in life, but there is no assurance of winning an election in spite of his powers and even after such a long time in politics. The alternative to not winning an election is not to have an election. Or keep changing election timing to improve winning chances. President Wickremesinghe has been trying everything. And he has everyone else chasing whatever election rabbit he pulls out of his scheming cap.
He cancelled the local government elections without saying anything about it, while letting everyone else agitate over it. He floated the idea about provincial council elections to keep everyone guessing. He got his sidekicks to spread rumours about advancing the presidential election even though as an interim president he is not entitled to do so.
Then came suggestions that he might try to advance the timing through a constitutional amendment. That was a dead end move because there was never going to be two-thirds majority support for it in parliament, where the opposition parties have been clamouring for parliamentary elections to be held after local government elections.
The one power that the President now has is to dissolve parliament and have new parliamentary elections. Mr. Wickremesinghe will not do that because he cannot put together a winning coalition, and the MPs who are supporting him in parliament now are scared to face an election. So, he opens a new window for distraction – electoral reforms, which have now taken a life of their own with the gazetted appointment of a Presidential Commission that is tasked to complete its work before April, unwittingly, but also fittingly for April Fools day, 2024!
In between came suggestions for abolishing the presidency, because the President is said to have figured out that he is not likely to get more than 50% votes on the first count, and he is not going to be high in the second or third preferences of those who are not going to vote for him in the first place. Put another way, Ranil Wickremesinghe is not the first, second or third best presidential candidate to a majority of Sri Lankan voters. That seems to be the assessment of all the president’s men. Hence the move to abolish it, as the last resort.
Mr. Wickremesinghe has played the abolition card before – in the dying days of the yahapalana government, when he suggested abolition after the UNP decided on Sajith Premadasa as its presidential candidate for the November 2019 presidential election. It became a laughing proposition then. Even Mangala Samaraweera laughed out loud.
This time, Anura Kumara Dissanayake has made a brilliant counter proposition that a constitutional amendment to abolish the ‘executive presidency’ should be coupled with the dissolution of parliament leading to a new general election.
The election itself could be coupled with a referendum on abolishing the executive presidency. To be clear, abolishing the executive presidency means only removing the elected presidency and reducing its powers to those appropriate for a head of state in a parliamentary democracy. To be clear as well, such a reform of the presidency should not require a referendum, as argued expertly by Dr. Nihal Jayawickrama in the Sunday Island last week.
Even so, there will be no harm in piggybacking a referendum question on presidential reform during a parliamentary election. A clear referendum result will put an end to a very longstanding question. In any event, the abolition kite never took off, let alone flew.
Finally, the nation, or nations, heard from the horse’s mouth that there will be elections, that is the presidential and parliamentary elections as and when they are due. Addressing the Special General Convention of the United National Party at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium in Colombo, last Saturday (October 21), President Wickremesinghe reportedly “outlined the timeline for upcoming elections in line with the constitutional provisions” – presidential election in 2024, followed by parliamentary elections, and local government elections in the first half of 2025. One would think that the President was not merely repeating the constitutional timeline for presidential and parliamentary elections which most people know, and that he was implicitly confirming that the two elections will be held as they come due.
Many are understandably skeptical and unsure if the President is being sincere or whether he is pulling another fast one. Like how he shooed away the local government elections. The sudden appointment of a new, nine-member commission on election reforms headed by former Chief Justice Priyasath Dep, certainly reinforces people’s skepticism about the President’s sincerity.
The specific tasking of the commission to make study the potential for enabling concurrent representation in both the parliament and the provincial councils is yet another example of Mr. Wickremesinghe’s presidential panache for making seemingly innovative, but which are in fact nonsensical suggestions. This might be the reason why there seems to have been no mention of provincial council elections at the UNP convention. There may not be any mention of them at all until we find out if the President is serious about enabling elected representatives to be concurrent members of both the parliament and the provincial councils.
Smart Dekma
Let us look at it another way. The theme of the UNP convention was “Smart Country – 2048.” One would have thought that country has seen the last of such cliches after the sensational collapse of Gota’s “Saubhagyaye Dekma” nonsense. Now we have the new Ranil version – Smart Country 2048, in pure English. Thankfully, it is not being splashed across the country as the Gota prototype was.
That is also because the UNP now is mostly a one-man state show. It does not have the prop up of 6.9 million who voted for Gotabaya Rajapaksa or 5.5 million who voted for Sajith Premadasa. Put another way, Smart Country has little chance of blossoming into a winning national platform.
My point here is something else. 2048 is the President’s target year for Sri Lanka reaching economic self-reliance and take off. With all the focus on the digital, the take off could turn out to be a virtual one. To make this a real one many concrete steps and short flights will have to be taken for the next 25 years starting from now. But we haven’t heard anything by way of a concrete plan or program from the President. Nor has the President demonstrated that he is assembling a political team that is worthy of the grand economic project that he claims he is launching.
There is nothing transparent about the team the President might be having outside parliament. And everything is transparent about the team of MPs that he has in parliament – their corruption, incompetence and their becoming increasing unelectable. The President has not articulated anything about whether the current political system and the institutional machinery are adequate for the grand purpose of delivering economic liberation by 2048.
Nor has there been any hint of what might come after him, for after all he is not expecting to be around till the day of deliverance in 2048. All that the country has had from him, politically speaking, is one trick after another to scupper one election or another. The last of them is the President’s recitation of the election timeline at the UNP convention.
So, it is understandable that there are criticisms and concerns that the President is pulling another fast one on the people. And the political counter to the President’s manoeuvres and machinations has already started. The time for fast ones is over, and there should not be any more postponement of elections. The President’s manoeuvres are likely to be countered both within parliament and outside parliament.
The opposition parties could request the Election Commission to make early announcement of election timelines – voter registration, nominations, and polling date, to keep the pressure on the President not to cancel or postpone the presidential election or the parliamentary election. The forthcoming budget process and debate could be used to ensure that sufficient funds are allocated for the two elections, and to get repeated commitments from the President that there will be no budgetary excuses to cancel or postpone either the two national elections.
Next to resigning or retiring, the most straightforward exit from power is electoral defeat. Ultimately the people will decide if President Wickremesinghe deserves to stay in office beyond the five year term for which Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected in November 2019. Mr. Wickremesinghe’s best argument for the people’s vote is that he has managed to restore economic stability from the chaos that was handed to him. But the stability that he is now presiding over is tenuous at best and will not be sustainable when the country starts repaying its debts.
He may have deserved an extended stay in power to look after the economy if he had just done that – look after the economy without playing tricks with elections. Instead, President Wickremesinghe has been using and abusing the power of his office either to avoid facing the electoral test or to bolster his electoral prospects. Now it is time the people got their turn to exercise the power of their vote to say who shall be the next President or who will form the next government.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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