Ranil insists on getting IMF help to get out of  current economic mess

UNP Leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had never asked Sri Lakan governments to downsize the public service.

Speaking at a meeting of the Rotary Club of Colombo West last week as the Guest Speaker, Wickremesinghe said Sri Lanka should seek IMF assistance to overcome the current economic crisis, and many countries had been compelled to tighten their belts.

When a participant asked what conditions the IMF might impose on Sri Lanka other than retrenchment in return for assistance, the former Premier said that the IMF had never asked Sri Lankan governments to reduce the number of public workers.

“They may tell the government not to increase the workforce; they told us so in 2001. The bigger problem is making public service efficient and restructuring the economy.

“The current crisis is leading to the unravelling of our economy, our social system, and most probably, the unravelling of our political system. Economically, we have not seen such a situation since 1988/1989, when we had the LTTE on one hand and the JVP and the IPKF on the other. The economy really took a beating, but that is nothing compared to what we are going through today.”

“Firstly, there has been a decline in our foreign exchange reserves. Our overall situation is bad because the banks don’t carry their own reserves. Secondly, there’s a decline in government revenue, and the total debt has risen. By 2020, it hit 101% of our GDP, which has never happened before. We always try to keep it at 85% and then try to bring it down.”

“Due the revenue shortfall, we have resorted to money printing. In 2020, the increase in money supply was 23%. So, what have we got? Money is being printed while foreign exchange reserves are dwindling and as a result the dollar appreciates; the USD was Rs. 181 in 2019 November and it has reached about Rs 250. You have the government’s exchange rate, or the bank rate and the ‘Pettah’ rate.”

“What is the result? As the economy contracts fast, the impact is being felt by the working-class, low-income people, Samurdhi recipients and others. I think, before the end of the year, there will be a time when we have to stick to one meal instead of three.

“We are also finding that part of the middle class is slipping down to the lower-income category. That is the second issue. Unemployment and inflation are on the rise. Another issue is that there’s going to be a shortage of food by about March. In contrast, there are still enterprises which make good profits.

“So, how do we resolve this? Some people feel that this will be resolved when the global economy recovers from COVID-19. We hit rock bottom in 77 and 89 and 2001, and in 2015 while the global economy was doing well. So, we could always go to them and get some spare cash. We went along to the IMF, and they provided us funding. But there were always allies around, we ensured that every country was our friend. This time it’s different.

“According to the IMF, in the first quarter of 2022 there will be a slowing down of growth. That is due to ‘Omicron’. But thereafter, because the US and China are slowing down, the rate of growth globally will slow down. The global economy will lose up to 13 trillion dollars by 2024 and global debt – that is the official debt – will be 256% of the global GDP.”