Purchasing Managers’ Indices indicate contraction in June 2022

aIndicating a contraction on a month-on-month basis, the Purchasing Managers’ Indices for both Manufacturing and Services activities decreased in June 2022, recording 44.1 and 40.3 index values, respectively.IIP in May 2022 decreased by 2.3 per cent to 91.1 compared to May 2021. Among the major sub divisions of the manufacturing industries, “coke and refined petroleum products” (98.5 per cent) and “Other non-metallic mineral products” (23.7 per cent) have mainly contributed to this overall decrease.

During the period under review (09.07.2022 to 15.07.2022), crude oil prices broadly showed a declining trend. Prices fell mainly on account of demand concerns due to mass testing for COVID-19 in China and IMF’s downward revision to the US growth forecast for 2022. Prospects of a large US rate hike later this month also supported the price decline. Overall, during the period under review, Brent and WTI prices decreased by US dollars 6.97 and US dollars 7.97 per barrel, respectively.

Weekly AWPR for the week ending 15th July 2022 decreased by 8 bps to 22.19 per cent compared to the previous week.The reserve money decreased compared to the previous week mainly due to decrease in the deposits held by the commercial banks with the Central Bank.The total outstanding market liquidity was a deficit of Rs. 521.760 bn by the end of this week, compared to a deficit of Rs. 630.701 bn by the end of last week.By 15th July 2022, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) increased by 5.47 per cent to 7,467.82 points and the S&P SL 20 Index increased by 6.92 per cent to 2,400.17 points, compared to the index values of last week.

During the year up to 15th July 2022, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated against the US dollar by 44.5 per cent. Given the cross currency exchange rate movements, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated against the Indian rupee by 40.4 per cent, the Euro by 37.4 per cent, the pound sterling by 36.8 per cent and the Japanese yen by 33.0 per cent during this period.

Earnings from exports increased by 12.2 per cent (Y-o-Y) to US dollars 5,266 mn during the five months ending May 2022 as a result of increased earnings mainly from exports of textiles and garments (16.2%), petroleum products (87.3%), gems, diamonds and jewellery (41.7%), machinery and mechanical appliances (12.0%) and base metals and articles(40.2%).

Import expenditure increased by 5.3 per cent (Y-o-Y) to US dollars 8,802 mn during the five months ending May 2022 largely due to higher imports of fuel (38.5%), textiles and textile articles (19.6%), cereals and milling industry products (1,074.7%) and diamonds and precious stones and metals(46.9%). However, the deficit in the trade account narrowed to US dollars 3,535 mn during the five months ending May 2022 from US dollars 3,663 mn in the corresponding period of 2021.

The export unit value index increased by 3.3 per cent (Y-o-Y), in May 2022 due to higher prices registered in all major categories, namely industrial, agricultural and mineral exports. The import unit value index in May 2022 increased by 26.8 per cent (Y-o-Y), due to higher prices mainly recorded in intermediate and investment goods. Accordingly, the terms of trade deteriorated by 18.5 per cent (Y-o-Y), to 71.3 index points in May 2022.The average price of tea (in the Colombo auction) increased to US dollars 3.74 per kg in May 2022 from US dollars 3.06 per kg in May 2021.The average import price of crude oil increased significantly by 60.6 per cent in May 2022 (Y-o-Y). -CBSL