Private creditor debt restructuring to be completed by March

From June to November 2023, the Central Bank had reduced the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) by about 6.5 percent, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Dr. P. K. G. Harischandra said.

That move had been made in response to the successful management of inflation, prompting the Central Bank to ease its previously tight monetary policy.

“Simultaneously, there was a gradual decrease in interest rates; however, this decline occurred at a measured pace. The transmission of policy rate adjustments to the money market is not instantaneous, requiring a certain period for full effect. During the Monetary Policy Board meeting conducted on January 22, 2024, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka opted to maintain the existing policy interest rates. This decision was based on the belief that additional time was needed for the money market to fully incorporate the earlier 6.5 percent reduction in interest rates, thus influencing a more comprehensive adjustment.,” he said.

Harischandra mentioned a decline in both lending rates and interest rates associated with Treasury bills. The Assistant Governor further indicated that forthcoming adjustments would involve a reduction in both lending rates and deposit interest rates.

“In December 2023, the inflation rate stood at approximately four percent. Interest rates for deposits persist in the range of nine to 10 percent, providing depositors with continued value for their savings. With the ongoing economic recovery, there is an opportunity to bolster it by lowering lending rates. This, in turn, would facilitate more accessible borrowing and encourage increased investment. Notably, the fourth quarter of 2023 marked a positive turn, breaking a streak of six consecutive quarters of negative growth, signaling encouraging economic progress.,” he said.

Harischandra emphasized the necessity of reducing lending rates to sustain the current positive economic momentum. He noted that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka aims to keep inflation at approximately five percent, enabling interest rates to range between eight and 10 percent. This strategy aims to provide depositors with the benefit of seeing an appreciation in their funds, while simultaneously offering entrepreneurs the opportunity to borrow at more affordable rates.

Harischandra said in late 2022, inflation was at 70 percent. In January 2024, inflation will be around seven percent because of the hike in the Value Added Tax (VAT). Inflation can happen because of supply-side and demand-side pressures.

“There is no inflationary pressure stemming from demand because the purchasing power of the population remains low. Over the course of 2022 and 2023, the prices of goods experienced a considerable increase of about 70 percent. While the value of the rupee saw a substantial 45 percent decline in 2022, it only appreciated by 12 percent in 2023. Currently, exchange rates are stable, and there is no inflationary pressure arising from that aspect. Additionally, with the price of crude oil staying below 80 dollars per barrel, we are confident that even if inflation reaches seven percent in January, it will likely be a temporary spike,” he said.

The Assistant Governor noted that an inflation rate of approximately five percent is considered typical in emerging markets and is viewed as an indicator of economic well-being. Nevertheless, the growth of purchasing power among the populace will require some time.

He further said, “a considerable number of individuals are opting to leave the country, prompting many companies to increase salaries. This adjustment has become necessary to retain the essential labour force for their operations. However, it’s important to clarify that these salary hikes may not be deemed sufficient.”

Harischandra said they had restructured domestic debt. International debt comes in two categories, i.e., international sovereign bonds and bilateral debt. Significant progress has been made in restructuring bilateral debt..

“Paris Club, China and India have agreed to help us. We now have to deal with the international sovereign bonds. We are working with the IMF and debt advisors. Furthermore, we hope to come to preliminary agreements by the end of this quarter,” he said.