Prez shows his hand

Tuesday 20th July, 2021

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has indicated his desire to seek a second term. He showed his hand at a meeting with a group of media heads yesterday. Asked whether he thought he would be able to accomplish his ambitious mission within the next three years, the President reportedly said he had eight more years, meaning the remainder of his current term plus five more years. He has made no revelation, though.

Not many people may have bought into claims being made in political circles that President Rajapaksa was not interested in re-election, and would hang up his boots after completing his first term. One however may argue that the President has not yet decided whether to run for President again, but has made the aforesaid statement for public consumption to prevent himself being considered a lame duck president of sorts, when his first term draws to a close. But chances are he will try to secure a second term.

Political power is habit forming just like intoxicants. It is only natural that no president with some politics left in him at the end of his or her first term can bring himself or herself to let go of power.

Re-election is the dream of any President after securing the first term and being ensconced in power. Of the seven Executive Presidents we have had so far, three served two consecutive terms each—the late J. R. Jayewardene, Chandrika Kumaratunga, and Mahinda Rajapaksa. President Ranasinghe Premadasa was assassinated in 1993 during his first term, and his successor, President D. B. Wijetunga, chose to retire the following year. President Maithripala Sirisena declared, at his inauguration ceremony, in January 2015, that he would not seek a second term, but it was obvious that he was planning to run for President again. He, in fact, worked tirelessly towards that end. He travelled the length and breadth of the country, attending opening ceremonies and making speeches which savoured of unofficial electioneering. His whirlybird rides cost the taxpayer an arm and a leg. The Easter Sunday terror attacks scuttled his grand plan.

Re-election is no cakewalk for a sitting President, as we have seen in the past. It was under extraordinary circumstances that Jayewardene, Kumaratunga and Rajapaksa secured their second terms. They had to campaign extremely hard, and even chose to abuse their executive powers to achieve their goals.

Jayewardene had his main rival, former Prime Minister Sirima Bandaranaike, deprived of her civic rights and disqualified from contesting the 1982 presidential election, which he won comfortably. He would have had his work cut out if Bandaranaike had entered the fray. He also gained from a split the late JVP leader Rohana Wijeweera caused in the anti-UNP-vote, as a presidential candidate. Kumaratunga survived an assassination attempt on the eve of the 1999 presidential election and benefited from a sympathy vote. Until that time, the presidential election had been a neck-and-neck race with UNP presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe having given Kumaratunga a run for her money. Rajapaksa sought his second term while the people’s memories of the defeat of the LTTE were still fresh. (His ill-conceived attempt to secure a third term, however, failed; he was beaten by a dark horse – Sirisena – in the 2015 presidential race, despite being the most popular politician at the time and having control over the state machinery.)

A whilom frontline combat officer turned President cannot be unaware of the ground situation, and the challenges ahead of him. The success of his current term hinges on his government’s ability to resolve the ongoing health and economic crises, among other things. If he is serious about winning a second term, he will have to crack the whip.