Features
Post-Gotabaya political arbitrage
by Kumar David
Newspapers and websites are filled with columns, essays and Editorials declaiming the botches of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency, the bondage of servile MPs and the vassalage of public officials. Columnists are waking up somewhat late in the day! I did say two months ago that the regime was in terminal decline and I have pointed out recently that the window for military-authoritarianism has closed. We need to move the discussion to other post-Gotabaya options. Three broad possibilities invite tactical consideration by the opposition.
In the face of mounting adversity the President throws in the towel, quits and makes a dash for the exit. If the miserable state of the economy continue, mass living conditions deteriorate and foreign debt obligations worsen and if mass discontent intensifies (what else?) then a wise man will bundle-up his belongings and say adios before he sinks from waist to neck deep in sludge.
The President does not cut and run but clings on for the remainder of his term and either seeks a second term or someone else from the clan is anointed as candidate. Mahinda is debarred so it could be Basil, Chamal, or neophyte Namal. No matter which, any SLPP candidate is likely to be mauled at the polls.
Absent a surprise dissolution, presidential elections come first, parliamentary elections after that. Faced with disaster in both polls what constitutional jiggery-pokery will the regime attempt in its efforts to avert calamity? (The military putsch option is not within the purview of today’s column).
Were you a Rajapaksa or a SLPP strategist what can you do? I have put myself in these shoes and wracked my brain but come up blank. The government’s efforts are all blank cartridges except in pandemic control where the record fluctuates and at the moment is moderately good at less than 1000 new cases a day. The most confident note is struck by Basil: “Confident of not defaulting on debt repayments and will work to improve quality of foreign reserves” he told the Madras Hindu on November 13, however a few days later he was on his knees before Modi begging for a $ 1 billion SWAP deal to tide over repayments falling due in the first half of 2022. The outcome of his pleadings is not known yet but getting indebted to Peter to pay Paul is no solution to a deepening foreign debt imbroglio.
The President announced with much pomp that chemical fertilisers and pesticides would be banned immediately and a Gazette notification was issued on April 26 this year, but on November 24 Agriculture Minister Aluthgamage backtracked lock stock and barrel: “Permission will be granted to import chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides from today”. The fake claim of 70% renewable energy generated electricity by 2030 will be quietly forgotten, the Gnanasara Task Force is being de-fanged. There have been no takers of the UDA’s offer of prime state land to foreign investors for development projects. The Central Bank’s official exchange rate is more honoured in the breach than the observance; it’s an Alice in Wonderland attempt; importers can’t get funds at this rate, exporters are robbed. One can go on and on, but it’s not necessary, there is no one alive in Lanka who does not know it all.
This is how I justify my first two bullet points: It would be entirely justifiable and defensible if Gotabaya were to cut and run, and second there is no way in heaven or earth (leave out hell, outright election rigging) whereby a nominees of the present regime can win the presidency or win a parliamentary majority. Thus we arrive at the opposition needing to nurture political arbitrage. I will lead up by recounting the events leading to the January 2015 convolution. I confess to have been the initiator of the Single-Issue Common-Candidate (SI-CC) concept. The strategy was correct and achieved its objective. I first germinated it in 2012, developed it over time and in July 2014 presented it in full to Ven. Sobhitha’s National Movement for Social Justice.
The Single-Issue Was to ‘Stop free-fall into Dictatorship’ and prevent Mahinda Rajapaksa’s return for a third term as it would have spelt autocracy. The crafty deletion of term limits, the egregious removal of Shirani Bandaranayake from Chief Justice, assassination of journalists, white-vans, the impunity and impudence with which his two younger siblings misused the armed forces, police and state institutions and the crooked financial deals for which they were arraigned before the courts, validates the charge of creeping dictatorship.
The electoral victory was spectacular and Mahinda’s defeat on January 8, 2015 was liberation; ‘the people that lived in darkness saw a great light and no longer walked in the valley of the shadow of death’. The 19th Amendment to the Constitution re-imposed term-limits. But oh dear, life, “thou cunning’st pattern of excelling nature”, outsmarted everyone. The thread that unravelled after the election and jinxed everybody was the common-candidate himself. The necessity of putting forward a common candidate was an acknowledgement of Mahinda’s electoral strength. He had won a war, he had charisma, his machine could bend and abuse every organ of state in elections, and a mountain of money stood behind him. Sans a common person behind whom leftists and radicals, liberals and democrats and the national minorities united, Mahinda would have been unstoppable. But unpredictably, the common candidate turned out to be an oddball, eccentric Pissu Sira. It is true there were early indications that he was gaga, but even if one had picked up the warning signs of personality disorder nothing could have been done after Ranil and Chandrika announced their choice. Acceptance of the common-candidate was a Mephistophelean contract that could not have been voided. The gods of arbitrage extracted from the nation a high contractual commission, imposing a hither-and-thither coot as president in exchange for voiding dictatorship. Still it was a price worth paying.
I had no illusions of the class character and economic programme of the government post-August 2015 parliamentary elections. Did SI-CC strategists have illusions that the yahapalana government would take a social-democratic turn and adopt policy orientations palatable to the likes of me? Very firmly NO. This was the second part of the Mephistophelean contract; the left had no doubt that the government would plumb for a traditional liberal economic orientation but what has to be done has to be done. What is relevant to this essay is that the left worked for the defeat of the Rajapaksa’s presidency and the defeat of his party at the subsequent parliamentary elections knowing that the UNP’s economic orientation was not it’s cup of tea. Mephistophelean Contracts No. 1 and 2 – I saw and accepted from day one with my eyes open.
This was a longish digression for a purpose which relates to the third of my bullet points. To a degree we cannot avoid the primacy of a single-issue again, that is, riding the country of a Rajapaksa regime for the second time. We can expect the Rajapaksa-SLPP combine to try to push a new constitution or constitutional amendments gerrymandered to save as much of its skin as possible. Then a key demand of political arbitrage facing the nation would be to disavow sectarianism and coordinate as trade unions, civil society movements and political parties to defeat such constitutional subterfuges. The JVP, the non-dead left, the parties mobilised under Sajith, the TNA and Muslim parties must display this maturity and foresight. A list of minimum conditions to throw back a deceitful constitution must be agreed and mass mobilisation set in motion to defeat dictatorship by constitutional amendment. Engineering the breakaway of say 10 MPs to undercut the government’s two-thirds in parliament won’t be easy given the low calibre of government party MPs, be they SLPP, Dead-Left or opportunist Muslims.
The next challenge is Presidential and Parliamentary elections due in 2024 and 2025. Arbitrage and understanding between social and political groups, like good wine and cheese, takes time to mature. Sectarianism and unrealistic self-expectation are its worst enemies. It is by no means too early for informal conversations to commence. I am sure Sri Lanka’s ever vigilant network of NGOs and civil society organisations will spring to life when the constitutional draft is made public. Maybe the best way for opposition political entities, ever shy to court each other, to start is to throw themselves into these prenuptials with manly enthusiasm. Nor must the Left when consummating an arranged marriage have illusions; if a right-of-centre candidate is chosen by the country as the next president, too bad but better than the authoritarian alternative.
President Gotabaya’s exit will be more interesting than his entry. His in-between period has been disastrous. The people of Sri Lanka have made bad choices often but they deserve an opportunity to erase this last one.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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