Positives for Israel from global power shifts

The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Bhutan is a pointer to the increasing recognition globally of Israel’s importance from a number of viewpoints. Significant among the latter are economic and security considerations. What is particularly important in this connection is the fact that this recognition is coming from an increasing number of Moslem countries.

The countries of the Moslem world that have thus forged diplomatic ties with Israel of late are; the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. This is a far cry from the sixties and seventies, for instance, when most Moslem countries recoiled from the idea of conducting ‘normal relations’ with Israel. However, a substantial change seems to be occurring currently in the way some important Arab and Moslem countries are beginning to view Israel.

Apparently, they seem to be placing their ties with Israel on an increasingly pragmatic footing and in the long term this could prove beneficial for the world. This is on account of the increasing importance of economic factors in inter-state relations. UAE and Bahrain, for example, are regional economic powers in their own right.

As Bhutan and many other countries before it have come to realize Israel’s capabilities in the economic field, in particular, are numerous and countries would stand to gain in considerable measure by giving secondary importance to ideological factors in their ties with Israel. For example, on the occasion of Israel and Bhutan establishing diplomatic ties the countries said in a joint statement, among other things: ‘The establishment of diplomatic relations would create new avenues for cooperation between the two countries in water management, technology, human resource development, agricultural sciences and other areas of mutual benefit.’

It is of relevance to note that Sri Lanka too is enjoying diplomatic relations, although low keyed, with Israel and that Sri Lanka is benefiting considerably by availing of Israeli expertise in some of the above fields. Besides, a notable number of Sri Lankans are employed in Israel in the area of caring for the elderly, besides other occupations. These developments would have been unthinkable decades ago when the majority of developing countries considered Israel a veritable outcast in the international community. The situation of the Palestinians and issues growing out of it were chief among the causes for this treatment of Israel. But the realization seems to be dawning on the international community that Israel is too important a state to be sidelined in the affairs of the world, although among progressive sections world wide the Palestinian cause continues to be popular and for good reason too. Justice cannot be done to Israel at the cost of the Palestinians and vice versa.

Fortunately, the ‘two state solution’ has come to be recognized by important sections of the world community, including Sri Lanka, as constituting the way forward in working out a political solution to the Middle East problem and it is hoped that progress would be made in the direction of a resolution of the issue on the basis of this formula. Right now, there is no better equitable solution than the creation of two states that would hopefully co-exist peacefully.

However, in a world inclining steeply towards economic pragmatism, the importance of Israel cannot be understated and countries of South Asia, such as India, Bhutan and Sri Lanka, cannot be faulted for according diplomatic recognition to Israel. But the efforts to address Palestinian issues need to continue considering the justness of the relevant cause.

Long before the rest of South Asia considered it opportune to give normal relations with Israel a try, India had forged ahead in that direction and diplomatic ties between the countries were established way back in 1992. Besides multi-faceted strengths in the economic field and other relevant areas of ability, Israel’s defence and military capabilities would have weighed very heavily with India in her decision to forge diplomatic ties with Israel. The latter has gained notable capabilities in managing insurrectionist violence and this would have been of great importance to India.

For example, Israel is renowned for her commando or special forces, whose dexterity is noteworthy. These strengths of Israel were plus factors probably in Sri Lanka’s eyes too during the latter’s anti-LTTE war years. But Israel has accomplished amazing feats in the field of agriculture and for developing countries, availing of these Israeli capabilities is of the first importance. It needs to be considered that Israelis came to settle down in an arid land. Before long, this veritable desert track was turned into habitable and cultivable land, thanks to the Israelis’ efficient water management.

While 30 or more years ago India found it to be in her interests to establish diplomatic ties with Israel in view of the latter’s multiple strengths, Israel too would have looked at India in terms of her blossoming merits. Considering that India is fast emerging as one of the world’s foremost economic powers, with vast investment potential, besides having a phenomenal middle class market, Israel could be considered as having chosen wisely by being receptive to India’s normalization initiatives.

However, the observer needs to ponder awhile on the implications for international politics from the above developments. The UAE and other Arab and Moslem countries that have forged diplomatic links with Israel in the recent past are thought to have been influenced in that direction by the US. Accordingly, the power balance in the Middle East would probably shift in the direction of the US.

A notable negative fallout from these developments, however, is that the mentioned countries’ ties with Iran and its allies would be exceptionally strained from now on. Hopefully, this would prompt the incoming Biden administration in the US to press ahead with an equitable Middle East solution, with better US-Iran relations receiving some priority attention. The US would need to pressurize Israel into cooperating in Middle East peace efforts.

In the case of South Asia, it would be tempting to predict an increase in US influence in the region, considering that India has fast emerged as an ally of the US, but this may not be exactly so. There is a mutual interest between the US and India in containing China, but India would be looking to increase her stature as the number one power in the region. An ally of the US may be, but not a pawn.