Politics after Rajapaksa-quake: A maiden speech, new alliances & more arrests

by Rajan Philips

“A melancholic spectacle of unsullied virginity.” That was Prime Minister SWRD Bandaranaike, in 1956, jestingly pouring scorn over the maiden speech of a young MP from Pottuvil, MM Mustapha. Last Wednesday, President Ranil Wickremesinghe, young at 73 (not 74 as I mistakenly wrote earlier and has since been corrected), delivered his maiden presidential speech in parliament in the aftermath of what really has been a Rajapaksa-quake in Sri Lankan politics. After 66 years, and the children of 1956 still not maturing with age, there is no Bandaranaike in parliament to wag his silver tongue and scythe through the maiden speeches of others. Mr. Bandaranaike would have particularly relished the opportunity to eviscerate a presidential speech in the country’s parliament, especially when it is the maiden speech of a 73-year old Executive President.

Happily, for President Wickremesinghe, he would be spared of being scorned by anyone in the current parliament. Except of course the three JVPers, but even they would be polite. Everyone else, including those who voted against him on July 20, are now warming up to him. There might even be oratorical support for him if Wimal Weerawansa were to continue the political tone he started while supporting the new President’s Emergency declaration. A person whom I deeply respect sent me, a YouTube rendition of Mr. Weerawansa’s speech during the Emergency debate. Even though my Sinhalese is worse than poor, as I happen to come from the other side of the 1956 fence, I was able to appreciate the brilliance of his oratory. Oratory, like music, needs no language for its appreciation. By that token, Wimal Weerawansa should never have objected to Sri Lanka’s national anthem being sung in Tamil, in addition to Sinhalese.

Which Ranil are we seeing?

More than his oratory, it is the substantive part of Weerawansa’s argument supporting Emergency Rule and by extension the new President, which is indicative of the political shifting and shuffling that is going on ever since the State of Sri Lanka was liberated from the clutches of the Rajapaksas. He was supporting Emergency Rule, Weerawansa said, in order to prevent the state from collapsing under the seemingly relentless Aragalaya demand for every principal political leader to “go home.” Almost immediately, Mr. Weerawansa was joined from outside parliament by that venerable exponent of civilizational politics, Gunadasa Amarasekera.

Writing in The Island (Monday August 1: “The President deserves praise”), Dr. Amarasekera found it “heartening to note that the President has the courage (unlike Gotabaya Rajapaksa who succumbed to Julie Chung’s dictates) to have summoned this gang of four and submitted them to a thorough dressing down.” The ‘gang of four’ are the American Ambassador Julie Chung, the EU Representative, the Human Rights Representative, the Canadian Ambassador, and the presidential dressing down was in response to their condemning his action to remove protesters from public buildings.

Before getting to the merits of the President’s action, what is significant here is the coming together of Dr. Gunadasa Amarasekera and Wimal Weerawansa in support of Ranil Wickremesinghe and his recourse to Emergency measures. Fifteen years ago (in 2007) the two of them wrote a critique of the 2002 Peace Process spearheaded by then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The monograph in Sinhala, entitled: Batahira Balaya saha Lankawe Iranama (The power of the West and the fate of Lanka), was said to have advanced the thesis that Ranil Wickremesinghe gave in to pressure and the lure of development assistance from the West and agreed to a peace process and an MOU with conditions more favourable to the LTTE.

There is nothing illogical in Amarasekera and Weerawansa now praising and supporting Ranil Wickremesinghe if, in fact, they see him as standing up to the West in putting down Aragalaya. In fact, in their eyes, Ranil Wickremesinghe has unexpectedly landed on the side of the children of 1956 against the Aragalaya children of 1977. What is puzzling, however, is what-on-earth Ranil Wickremesinghe is actually standing for today – in the political sense, even if there is broad agreement in what needs to be done on the political front. His erstwhile admirers are patiently waiting for the ‘Ranil they knew’ to re-emerge (like Lazarus?) soon.

Regardless of where he is standing or how he is positioning himself, President Wickremesinghe is objectively in a position to draw support from all sides in parliament, with the exception of the JVP, those close to Sajith Premadasa in the SJB, and the SLPP rump that includes the frustrated viyathmaga folks and the lonely GL Pieris. It is a different story outside parliament. But both within and outside parliament, the economic factor is favourable for the President to garner support.

Quite obviously, it is the economic urgency that is motivating sections of the SJB, the Tamil, Muslim and Indian Tamil Parties, and even the Wimal-Gaman-Vasu independents, to support the President within parliament. Even outside, the economic urgency has been a factor in dampening the protest enthusiasm among sections of the Aragalaya participants. On the other hand, the President seems to be using the Rajapaksa factor to consolidate his support within parliament while risking loss of support and even opposition outside parliament on account of the same Rajapaksa factor.

Rajapaksa Factor

The significance of the Rajapaksa factor outside parliament would appear to be playing out at different levels and in different ways. A majority of Aragalaya activists believe that Ranil Wickremesinghe stepped in to rescue the Rajapaksas and helped himself to becoming a substitute President. The traditional supporters of Ranil Wickremesinghe are mad as hell that their leader has been conducting himself to be considered a Rajapaksa clone. On the other hand, habitual Ranil haters, many of them former Rajapaksa cheerleaders, are using the anti-Rajapaksa wave to see off Ranil Wickremesinghe once and for all. A different layer in this political formation includes those who are still loyal to the Rajapaksas, and who are suspicious of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s politics, but want him nonetheless to be the instrument that protects the Rajapaksas, especially Gotabaya Rajapaksa, from universal indictments and trials.

Fundamentally, the emergence of Janata Aragalaya and the collapse of the Rajapaksa family – the quake, has ruptured the nexus between Sinhala nationalism and Rajapaksa politics. The nexus was more synthetic than organic and it was the Rajapaksas who needed the vehicle of nationalism to con their way to power. Sinhala nationalism was never in any need of reinforcement from the Rajapaksa family, or any political family for that matter. The nexus was the agenda of a section of Sinhala nationalists who were inclined to interpret and apply nationalism narrowly and exclusively rather than broadly and inclusively. The challenge for Ranil Wickremesinghe is in navigating his presidency through the multiple currents that are surfacing after the Rajapaksa-quake.

He has told the Wall Street Journal (not to any local paper) that he is in contact with Gotabaya Rajapaksa and that it would be unwise for him to return to Sri Lanka any time soon. That might also be the opinion that the President is hearing from the family seniors left in Sri Lanka under court-ordered travel bans. While there might be sympathy and support for protecting the Rajapaksas from universal jurisdiction, it might be a different story altogether if the President were to be seen as protecting them from local indictments for local crimes and misdemeanours.

Already, Sajith Premadasa who is threatening to quit politics for a strange reason of moral pique, has nonetheless raised the very valid question as to why the police are arresting Joseph Stalin, the well known trade union leader, while doing nothing about Rajapaksas who were responsible for the May 9 mayhem. Police are also asking Galle Face protesters to vacate the place before 5 pm on Friday, July 5. Not to be outdone, the protesters are challenging the police in the Court of Appeal with three writ petitions against any police action to evict them from their protest sites.

The President never stops parroting, and he went on again in his speech before parliament on Wednesday, that he fervently supports democracy and peaceful protests but he will not countenance violence and terrorism. If the President is acknowledging that the Aragalaya protesters are overwhelmingly peaceful and non- violent, why doesn’t he or his emissaries meet with them to find a peaceful resolution? He promised a ‘youth parliament,’ but his police are imprisoning those who would be the protesters’ first choice to represent them in such a novel parliament.

The Speech

Remarkably, the President did not mention the word (or name) ‘Rajapaksa’ in his speech. In fact, he did not mention the name of any political persona, past or present, not even JR Jayewardene or R. Premadasa. He spoke about the political failure to capitalize on the “new economic regime” that was introduced in 1977. The President wants to remedy it now and said that “we are preparing a National Economic Policy for the next 25 years. It lays the foundation for a social market economic system, securing development for the poor and underprivileged groups and encouraging small and medium entrepreneurs.”

Who is ‘we’? Is it the SLPP cabinet, government officials, or outside advisers? The people are anxious about the next two days, two weeks, and at most two months. Not 25 years! The speech did not give any indication how the government is planning to deliver fuel, food and medical supplies in the short term. What luxury do the President and the government have to embark on a 25-year national economic plan or policy? A more modest but crucially urgent task would be to focus on conserving and augmenting the country’s export industries to maintain and increase export-led foreign exchange earnings. Amidst all the talk about debt restructuring, there is hardly any mention of expanding our foreign exchange revenue.

On the political and constitutional side, the President did not mention the 1978 Constitution, but drew attention to its major consequence when he asserted that “the President of a country does not have to be a King or a God who is exalted above the people.” Like the 25-year economic plan, the President wants to introduce “a comprehensive series of political reforms,” with the promise that “I will carry out those reforms during my tenure. However, not based on my own opinion, but with the consent of the Parliament based on the views of the youth, women and other people.”

What tenure? Gota’s tenure that ends in 2024, or a new term following a new presidential election? There is more with the President “taking measures to establish a People’s Assembly in order to decide which social and political reforms should be implemented. A mechanism to obtain views of all interested parties is being prepared through the People’s Assembly through the consultation of political parties, various organizations etc. I specially invite the youth engaged in activism and youth who are not to provide their views.”

A people’s assembly? When they are standing in queues to get their basic needs? It would seem that the President is spreading his canvas for too wide when he or the country do not have the resources to do all at once. And he seems to be setting himself up for the long haul at the age of 73. Is the country ready for it? That is the question. Rajapaksas failed because they were either clueless about what needs to be done or reckless in doing what should never have been done. In President Wickremesinghe, the country might be having the opposite problem. Wanting to do too much, with too few resources and with too little immediate planning.