Features
Pandemic! Pandemic?
By Dr. F.E. Dias
An epidemic affects a high proportion of a population at the same time, and with respect to disease, it means an outbreak that spreads quickly and regionally affects a disproportionate number of people. Pandemics are epidemics that spread across wide geographical areas such as nations and continents. It should be a matter of interest to us that, according to information prevailing and incessant regarding the pandemic, we are said to be in the middle of, the proportion of, shall we say patients, as routinely identified via PCR tests, who show no symptoms of COVID-19 greatly outweigh those that do.
Preamble
Let us first understand what we are talking about. Coronaviruses are a family (Coronaviridae) of viruses that can cause the common cold, SARS (attributed to SARS-CoV) and MERS (attributed to MERS-CoV), the latter two being qualified as Severe Acute and Middle East respectively. The respiratory malady we refer to as the common cold can also be caused by other virus types including rhinoviruses, influenza viruses, adenoviruses and several others, often in combination, with about 200 causal viral variants identified thus far, and many causative agents not yet identified.
Whereas for what is called the common cold there is no clear link between pathogen and disease, the beta-coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2, whatever its origins, is specified as the cause of the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19, common symptoms of which are fever, cough, fatigue and many others such as shortness of breath, muscle ache, runny nose and nausea to name a few, symptoms similar to those of the common cold, influenza and other febrile diseases and allergy response. The virus usually spreads via respiratory droplets released from a carrier individual, hence the muzzles we wear while the dogs stare at us pondering at the turning of tables. So, SARS-CoV-2 is our virus and COVID-19 is the associated series of clinical symptoms, called the disease.
Detection
What about the testing to find out whether the symptoms you have can be attributed to SARS-CoV-2? There are three pertinent types of tests. One is the nucleic acid amplification via polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test which is used today with the claim that it diagnoses the disease. That is, one is given to understand that it says whether you, even when asymptomatic, are infected and thereby contagious. The other two are antigen and antibody tests. Let us understand.
Antibodies, also known as immunoglobulins, are proteins produced by the B-lymphocytes in the immune system to latch on to foreign substances and consequently remove them from the body, thereby protecting from the potent harm that the foreign substance could have caused. Such foreign substances as recognised by the antibodies are called antigens, which could be toxins or components of pathogens such as the spike glycoproteins of the Coronavirus that help it to enter the host. Detection of the specific antibodies in serum does indicate that the specific antigen has entered the body but since the production of antibodies may occur days or weeks after the antigen has entered and may continue its presence for a significant period after the antigen no longer poses a threat, it does not indicate that you are at that moment likely to develop disease or to infect others. It is not diagnostic by that understanding but will be useful for assessing the durability of vaccine response or of naturally acquired immunity.
Antigens then are substances capable of eliciting an immune response. The antigen test – which is familiar to us as, the rapid test that provides a result in 15 minutes, detects the aforementioned surface protein fragments specific to the virus. While other factors such as the test kit source and competency of swabber and tester do matter, these tests provide a positive result usually when there is high or near-peak viral load. By this point, the symptoms may have begun to appear, and the individual is most contagious. It is fast, cheap and fairly simple, but could be considered as a test for infectiousness than one for infection.
PCR
The polymerase chain reaction is used to replicate a segment of DNA so that quantity sufficient for detection and analysis is produced. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has single-stranded RNA as its genetic material. Reverse transcription (RT) converts RNA into DNA. In each cycle of replication, the quantity of the gene sequence of interest is doubled so that after 40 replication cycles, a single sequence of nucleic acid would have multiplied a trillion times, that is a million of millions. The technique was developed by Dr. Kary Mullis in the eighties and he received the Nobel prize for chemistry in 1993 on account of its vast applications in genetics, microbiology, forensic science and medicine. Even Hollywood used PCR on fossilised DNA to revive and populate the Jurassic Park!
But how is the technique connected to the disease? The protocol published in January 2020 by the WHO, for public health laboratories to use in the detection of SARS-CoV-2, is based on real-time RT-PCR. A paper describing this methodology, now referred to as the Corman-Drosten paper, was subsequently submitted to the journal Eurosurveillance. It was published within 24 hours of submission, raising questions regarding the peer-review process, and two of the authors were members of the editorial board of the same journal. The protocol was consequently used in ~70 percent of tests globally and by a hundred governments and is called the gold standard for COVID-19 testing. We know it as the PCR test which if it turns out positive makes you a patient, understood to be infected and contagious, and all that follows.
The PCR test as conducted as per WHO guidelines is binary qualitative in that it returns a positive or negative result after the pre-decided number of replication cycles have been performed. The number of cycles is known as the positivity threshold or cycle threshold (cT) and is the determinant of sensitivity. The Corman-Drosten protocol does not define the threshold but appears to suggest the use of 45 replications.
Independent analyses of PCR test results against the inoculation and culture of the same samples showed that for 35 replication cycles, less than three percent produced positive cultures. That is, for a cT of 35, 97 percent of PCR test results that came out positive were, in fact, false positives. On this basis, 97 percent of ‘COVID-19 cases’ were not infected with SARS-CoV-2. For cT values above 35, the data approaches the asymptote and indicates 100 percent false positives. Most lab reports do not indicate the cT used in their test but 30 to 45 is usual.
In November 2020, a group of scientists formally pointed out flaws in the Corman-Drosten protocol. Apart from not defining the cT, there were factors such as atypically high concentrations of primer (replication initiators) that cause increased unspecific binding and product amplication, substantial variability and error in test process design that could lead, inter alia, to other Coronaviruses being detected or for residual fragments of viral RNA to be sufficient to indicate the presence of the whole virus. Such residuals may quite well be indications of a battle won by the immune system against last week’s common cold. Also, the genetic code considered for the development of the test protocol was based on theoretical or in silico sequences supplied by a Chinese laboratory since the authors at that time did not have access to infectious or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 or its isolated genomic RNA.
In January 2021, reportedly one hour after the Biden inauguration, the WHO issued a notice urging caution in the interpretation of PCR test results, stating that their protocol is merely an aid for diagnosis and that assay specifics and clinical observations need to be considered. Since it followed that it was no longer the gold standard for diagnosis, a person who tested positive on a flawed PCR protocol conducted with a meaninglessly high cT would not thereby be classified as infected or having the disease. Since then, the COVID-19 numbers have substantially reduced, at least in the USA. Eventually, in July 2021, the CDC announced that it has requested the FDA to withdraw its request for emergency use authorization of this PCR test as a diagnostic tool for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, admitting that it cannot distinguish between CoViD-19 and influenza.
Conclusion
There is the virus and its mutations. It causes illness, and complications and even death particularly when co-morbidities pre-exist. Precautions need to be taken to protect from infection, especially among those with weaker immune systems such as the elderly. Action needs to be pursued to eradicate the pathogen and even to prevent others being developed. And yet, the world has completed a revolution around the sun since the WHO declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic in March 2020. The world has undergone a revolution as a consequence of this declaration and is still reeling from it. The question is, however, whether the pandemic was indeed a pandemic after all, at least until the vaccination campaigns began.
Corman-Drosten paper – https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045
WHO adoption – Protocol V2 (who.int)
WHO original – Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 (who.int)
WHO change – WHO Information Notice for IVD Users 2020/05
CDC withdrawal – https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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