Ominous signs

The week that is behind us saw developments that signposts what the country is facing in the short term. The most ominous of these is the threat of a general strike. Professionals and other groups that have never paid income tax have come together in a powerful united front to resist the new taxes recently announced. The former say that they are not against paying taxes but demand that these be fair, especially in the context of today’s rocketing cost of living. They also urge that interest rates on loans they were encouraged to take not so long ago have doubled recently. This has resulted in their being painted into a corner, unable to find the wherewithal for living. Changes exempting non-cash benefits from income tax proposed in the last couple of days by the Inland Revenue Department have only added fuel to the fire. These have been angrily condemned as benefiting the political class long pampered at taxpayer expense.

If President Ranil Wickremesinghe thinks that he can smash a burgeoning strike in the manner his uncle and mentor, President J.R. Jayewardene did in July 1980, he is indulging in more than a pipe dream. Remember that 1980 was just three years after JRJ was swept to power at the crest of an unprecedented electoral landslide with a five sixths majority in parliament. Wickremesinghe, today, is the President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka not on the popular, or for that matter, any mandate of the people of the country. He is in office on the back of the parliamentary votes of the hated Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP). RW was unable to be even elected to parliament in August 2020 and reduced the once powerful UNP to zero elected seats. He returned to the legislature, after much foot dragging, on the single National List seat his party was entitled to. So Wickremesinghe today and JRJ at his prime are as different as chalk and cheese.

President Wickremesinghe, having served as prime minister of this country six times in a political career beginning in 1977, knows this very well. Though the protests have been resisted by the police for the past several days, there have been no major clashes. It appears unlikely that an iron fist would be resorted to in the immediate future in the manner that the Aragalaya was crushed. This after Gotabaya Rajapaksa, having been compelled by People’s Power to get rid of his aiya, Mahinda Rajapaksa who enthroned GR as president, first appointed RW prime minister and then acting president before fleeing the country. Under siege, GR to his credit, had ordered the armed forces not to shoot to quell protests and it is hoped that his successor too would follow that good example. The country is well aware of the government’s dilemma. The economic situation is critical and Wickremesinghe in his address at last week clearly indicated he well knew the difficulties the people are facing. But he said it is not his wish, indeed he cannot even try, to be popular in the current scenario.

It was not long ago that the president who is also finance minister revealed that the IMF wanted earnings above a monthly Rs. 45,000 taxed. The government had tried to raise that threshold to Rs. 150,000 a month and eventually settled at Rs. 100,000. From all the information now available in the public domain, the public at large have been led to believe that getting out of the mess the country is plunged in is largely dependent on an arrangement with the IMF. This has been coming, coming for some months but has not yet come. A lot of comforting words have been spoken by the political authorities saying that except for a further commitment from China, much that must be accomplished to kick off the external debt restructuring process the IMF requires, has been completed. But if the protest process gathering recent momentum reaches a crescendo, will the resulting instability permit any arrangement with the IMF? A government that as lost its mandate and a president with no mandate whatever has been doing their damnedest to postpone the local elections. The last word on the subject from the Supreme Court was heard on Friday with the Elections Commission directed to go ahead with the poll. But is this one but the last word because another court action is yet proceeding?

Last week also saw the former president and his successor making a joint appearance at the Gangaramaya in Hunupitiya. GR also went to court claiming Rs. 17 million found at President’s House as Aragalayists stormed the presidential mansion where he taken refuge after his private Mirihana home had been attacked. This was where he lived and worked from during his final days when the Presidential Secretariat was also under siege. There was a spot of bother that this cash, discovered and counted by those who crashed into the presidential abode, and handed to the police, was not deposited in the courts for several days. How this will unravel in the coming days remains to be seen. Most ordinary people will not keep Rs. 17,000 in cash in their homes for reasons of safety; they’d rather keep it in a bank. But the First Citizen, it seems is different. He’s gone public on that by claiming the cash. The question now is whether the Inland Revenue Department will investigate this matter in the way they would an ordinary Silva or Perera.