Features
NATO enlargement set to heighten East-West tensions
We have it on the authority of the UN that over 9,000 civilian lives have been snuffed out in the invasion thus far, inclusive of 500 children. These, apparently, are conservative estimates because the numbers are feared to be very much greater. But as matters stand, prospects of ending the war by peaceful means are nil. Where do the advocates of a negotiated settlement in Ukraine go from here? This is another challenge in Ukraine that could be expected to grow grimmer.
A factor that could get very much in the way of a peaceful solution to the conflict is the recent seeming challenge posed to President Putin’s authority by the Wagner group, which fought alongside the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. The commentator is compelled to take this view in consideration of the fact that Putin could not afford to be seen as weak in the eyes of his supporters, going forward.
If President Putin is to be continued to be seen as Russia’s ‘supreme leader’, he cannot afford to give the impression that he is beatable. Besides, he cannot soften his stance on the invasion because he has staked a considerable amount of his political future on the war. Thus is the Ukraine tangle rendered increasingly complex to unravel.
Greatly aggravating this complexity are some notable developments on the East-West front. Even a glance at the map of Eastern Europe would reveal that NATO has indeed managed to increase its membership from among a majority of Russia’s immediate neighbours. The most recent entrant to NATO from Eastern Europe is Finland, with Sweden too making what seems to be a successful bid to join the NATO fold currently although this is yet to come to pass in full.
It is quite some time since Ukraine herself made a bid for NATO membership. When Ukraine acquires NATO member status, she would come to be seen by Russia as posing quite a formidable security concern.
Therefore, it may seem that Russia has made a substantive point when it claims that NATO expansion poses a grave threat to its Eastern flank. NATO is slowly but surely spreading its influence and heft in Eastern Europe and there is no doubting it. However, it does not follow from these developments that Russia could invade its neighbours, which are today sovereign states although most of them were formerly ‘satellites’ of the USSR.
Historians disclose that these current security concerns of Russia are not entirely new. In fact Russia’s present day rulers, it is revealed, are on the ‘same page’ as the former Tsars of the country who sought to bring under Russian control vast territories on its eastern flank, so as to defuse some of their security concerns. These security worries accounted in considerable measure for Russia’s participation in World War 1, for instance. Nevertheless, these fears could in no way justify military invasions of any kind decades into the post- World War 11 order.
The fact that NATO is on a steadfast path to expand and consolidate its power and influence in Eastern Europe is substantial evidence that the war in Ukraine would drag on at considerable cost to the principal antagonists to the conflict. The warring sides could not be expected to step down from their policy positions in the foreseeable future. This will ensure the conflict’s tragic continuance.
As mentioned, for the Russian leadership, a tame withdrawal from the war is currently unthinkable. On the other hand, Ukraine is enjoying unstinted military and political support from NATO, which renders it quite unconquerable. In fact, the US has committed itself to supplying Ukraine with cluster bombs and this factor could further strengthen the latter’s fighting capability and ‘staying’ power.
The current NATO summit in no less a state than Lithuania, with the prominent participation of US President Joe Biden, emphatically underscores the West’s unflagging backing for Ukraine. While neither main party to the Ukraine conflict could be expected to register any remarkable military gains in the short term, what Ukraine would present for Russia is an Afghanistan style, suicidal military quagmire from where there could be no easy escape.
Meanwhile, the US has not done its battered image any good by opting to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs and other lethal weaponry. Since Russia matches the US in its fire-power it is difficult to conceive how cluster bombs and the like would drastically shift the military balance in Ukraine in the latter’s favour.
What is doubly certain is that there would be increased civilian blood-letting in Ukraine as a consequence of the US decision. That is, Ukraine’s torment would increase several fold. The world would be saddled with yet another wasting war on the lines of an East-West confrontation.
The danger remains that the Ukraine conflict could escalate into a Europe-wide war, if not judiciously managed. Put simply, NATO would militarily confront a remnant of the Warsaw Pact, but a very powerful one at that. The possibility of the use of nuclear weapons in such a region-wide, expanding war and its horrifying consequences, one hopes, would prompt the powers concerned to seek a solution to the conflict at the negotiating table, and quickly.
Unfortunately, the UN has been reduced to the position of a passive onlooker in the face of these dangerous tendencies. The international community has not made any headway in its efforts to broad-base the UN Security Council and as a consequence the latter has remained an arena wherein the foremost powers have continued to jarringly lock horns, while armed conflicts the world over dangerously escalate.
However, the world cannot afford to allow the UN system to remain in a state of inner paralysis. Democratic opinion the world over needs to come together to work out ways of converting the UN into a conflict resolver which would be widely respected. Besides, ‘Swing States’, such as India and China, need to consider as to how they could positively influence international developments for the collective good of the world.