Myanmar crackdown posing dilemmas for democracies

The Myanmarese Generals have earned a notoriety over the years for coming down very hard on civilian protests but the protesters would do well to take a leaf from the Philippines’ highly successful bloodless ‘People’s Power’ Revolution of the mid-eighties that relieved the archipelago of President Ferdinand Marcos’ iron-fisted rule and eventually paved the way for the coming to power of a civilian President in the form of Corazon Aquino.

Predictably, most democracies in South and South-east Asia in particular would ‘turn the other way’ on seeing the Myanmarese Generals’ crackdown on tens of thousands of the country’s civilians calling for a return to democratic rule in the country, with the jaded comment that ‘It’s an internal matter’. At the moment the silence on the part of our democracies is ‘deafening’.

It’s certainly an ‘internal matter’ but those states claiming to have democratic credentials are conscience-bound to at least call on the Myanmarese military to treat the protesting civilians with a lesser degree of harshness. The military could also be asked to engage the civilian public with the aim of working towards an amicable and equitable short term solution to the crisis, since a long term solution could only take the form of a return to democratic, civilian rule and the latter is anathema to the military. Responding to these requirements positively is the least that democracies in our part of the world could do in the face of the crackdown. But not much optimism could be had on this score.

The Myanmarese Generals have earned a notoriety over the years for coming down very hard on civilian protests but the protesters would do well to take a leaf from the Philippines’ highly successful bloodless ‘People’s Power’ Revolution of the mid-eighties that relieved the archipelago of President Ferdinand Marcos’ iron-fisted rule and eventually paved the way for the coming to power of a civilian President in the form of Corazon Aquino.

Essentially, the method adopted by the Philippine demonstrators was to offer violence-free resistance to the diktat of the regime of the day. Civil disobedience was the hallmark of the protests that lasted from 1983 to 1986. Older observers may probably recollect that Philippine demonstrators even sat in the way of war tanks that were deployed to cow them into submission on the highways of Manila. However, the regime refrained from using excessive coercion on the protesters. The peaceful resistance finally paid off and the security forces were compelled to retreat to their camps.

These memories of the Philippines’ bloodless revolution ought to waft back to the minds of more seasoned observers on their seeing the mammoth crowds turning out to protest current developments in Myanmar, which, in the main, involved the ousting by the Generals of civilian Head of government Aung San Suu Kyi. Maybe, Myanmarese civilians could adopt the peaceful tactics of the Philippine protesters, that were, above all, very sparing of life and limb. Peaceful protests, moreover, are perfectly in keeping with the spirit of democracy.

A relevant question to ask is whether international pressure will be to any avail in helping to restore civilian, democratic rule in Myanmar. Sections of the West, including the US, have condemned the coup but it is open to question whether Western criticism and even economic sanctions would prove effective in bringing back the ousted administration. At the moment, the answer would need to be in the negative because Myanmar could always fall back on Chinese and Russian support to ward off external pressure. In fact, the latter blocked a UN Security Council resolution denouncing the military coup. So, Myanmar too could shape-up as a stage for a cold proxy war between the West, on the one side, and Russia and China on the other.

The fact that Myanmar is a member of ASEAN is of considerable importance in this connection as well. Thus far, ASEAN has maintained a studied silence on the Myanmar situation. Most ASEAN states are likely to resort to the ‘it’s an internal matter’ policy posture. For them, Myanmar is a resource-rich powerful partner and it would be in their interests to tread with care on this question. Besides, many ASEAN states are not fully-fledged democracies and they could be accused of ‘double-think’ and ‘double-talk’ if they go so far as to make a pro-democracy pronouncement on Myanmar.

Moreover, Myanmar is not likely to be hugely concerned as to whether it is burning its boats with the West. The fact of the greatest salience in this connection is the global economic clout commanded by the ASEAN region. Even allowing for the economic devastation generated by the Covid-19 pandemic in the South-east Asian region, it is ASEAN that will command the mightiest economic muscle in the future. A measure of the latter is the fact that in the next 20 to 30 years the ASEAN region will account for some 60 per cent of global GDP. Accordingly, Western economic sanctions are likely to carry least weight with Myanmar.

Nor will big power moral pressure prove to be of any value. The military regime in Myanmar will continue to be ‘named and shamed’ by the democratic world but it would not prompt the regime to cave-in, considering that international politics is not based on moral considerations. The US knows this only too well. For instance, the US was a staunch supporter of President Marcos for years and he was important to Washington because the Philippines was seen as a bulwark against the spread of communism in South-east Asia at the time.

However, popular forces of democracy the world over could make a positive impact in Myanmar by consistently supporting the pro-democracy movement in the country, morally and materially. One of the most positive features of the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar is its phenomenal numbers. While the latter would need to be encouraged in their peaceful resistance measures, all the assistance would need to be provided to them to stubbornly persist, as was the case in the Philippines. The possibility is strong that the junta could be made to collapse through the adoption of strong but peaceful civil disobedience tactics.

Progressive sections of the international media could also help out in this undertaking by consistently focusing on the abuses and atrocities of the junta. Although not all the governments of the world could be relied on to rally round the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar, the consciences of publics everywhere could be stirred against the Generals through such exposes. Eventually, this could prove unbearable for the Generals on account of people everywhere calling on governments to act fast and firmly against the junta.